We all want to a win $1 million in NFL best ball fantasy football, tournaments like Underdog’s Best Ball Mania III, but it is not an easy task like it is with traditional NFL fantasy football. With 451,200 entrants on Underdog, you have to have the draft of a lifetime to get the win. First, you have to advance in three rounds before even having an opportunity to win $2,000,000, then finish top two in the 470-person final round. In essence this tournament is structured like a parlay where you have to hit the first three legs, while the fourth round is akin to a more traditionally structured GPP tournament.
How to Win Fantasy Football Best Ball 2022
Underdog Best Ball Mania 3 Strategy
NFL best ball is mathematically fascinating with the dynamic of how only the best performers at each position count towards your overall score. The resulting differences between season-long where you have to choose the starters each week and best ball Fantasy Football cannot be overstated. If you are taking traditional fantasy football rankings and applying them to best ball, it is not a disaster, but you are going to be missing the extra edge you can get from the new format on the block. It’s like listening to the midi version of a song when you could be listening to mp4. Bohemian Rhapsody still might be pleasant to the ear, but the midi version isn’t a masterpiece.
To rank players for Best Ball, we ran simulations of how every player affects your overall season projection on an average roster. We know that your roster is going to have a mix of at least two quarterbacks, six wide receivers, four running backs and two tight ends. Assuming those building blocks are present, we can calculate how each player would contribute to the team using a simulation. These simulations are the basis of our NFL best ball rankings. By creating a projection for each player in the context of an average best ball roster, we specifically tailored our season-long fantasy football projections to best ball.
In 2022, it is fairly easy to either rank all the players in the NFL from best to worst fantasy potential or find a set of competent rankings that do so. Even if you just draft the players with the lowest ADP each round, you are going to have a reasonable lineup. Traditional player rankings have not been perfected but they are pretty solid compared to just going into a draft blind. But one piece that most people have not figured out yet is how to incorporate a player’s schedule to figure out their value for each specific tournament. Traditional fantasy football rankings correlate well to a best ball Sit ‘n Go where each week counts equally. But we know they are not all equal — you could have a rough Week 5 and make the playoffs but if you have a rough Week 15 that’s game over, man. Game over! Since the stakes vary so much from week to week in the big NFL best ball tournaments, an extra point in Week 5 is not the same as a point in Week 16. When you factor in that you have three must-win weeks, that starts to dramatically skew the importance away from regular season performances to those playoff weeks.
I found it very difficult to use intuition to figure out the best way to quantify this; most of my initial thoughts turned out to be misguided once I determined the best way to solve this problem by simulation. At first, it made sense to me that Weeks 1 through 14 have about one-fourteenth of the importance of Weeks 15 to 17. But the margin of victory usually is not 14 times higher in a 14-week best ball round, so those regular season points are still relatively valuable even though there are a lot more of them to go around.
Using simulations, I was able to figure out the value of an extra point in each round. But you have to actually make it to that round to realize the advantage, so I multiplied by the percentage of participants remaining at that point. We are all used to using points per dollar to find the best plays in DFS but for this I created a dollar-per-point metric. This represents the expected value added to your entry with each marginal change in projected points – so if between two players one is projected to add 1 point more in Week 16 on DraftKings, that player adds $1.20 to your expected winnings in comparison.
Underdog 2022 Best Ball Mania
Underdog changed up their formula for their 2022 Best Ball Mania tournament by expanding the final round from 235 to 470 top lineups; meanwhile, Round 2 went from 12 participants to 10 and Round 3 changed from 18 participants to 16. Strategically, this makes Week 16 much more valuable than it was previously because you have both a higher probability of making it there and a lower probability of making it to the finals. Of course Week 17 is where you win the big bucks, but our simulations actually show the value of an extra projected point in Week 16 is worth slightly more than Week 17 now – a big shift from 2021. Practically speaking, it’s worth looking at the strength of schedule for both Week 16 and Week 17 when drafting players.
One twist that Underdog introduced this year is awarding $1,000,000 to the team with the highest score in the regular season. You can’t really optimize your best ball draft to go for this more than just drafting the best players, but it’s a fun twist that if you draft smart you should have a decent shot at. Two $1,000,000 prizes and one $2,000,000 makes things really interesting.
Since our rankings on Stokastic are powered by weekly projections, we can easily account for the likelihood of success in any individual week. When people think strength of schedule usually they are thinking of the defensive matchup. Of course you would rather have your player against the New York Jets defense than the LA Rams, but the venue is extremely important late in the season. The inherent disadvantage of passing in winter conditions in New York may negate any advantage of facing a weak defense for a receiver. We are accounting for all of these factors on the back end so you don’t have to.
Underdog NFL Best Ball Mania 3 Draft Tips
Now that you have your rankings optimized for the Underdog Best Ball Mania III, draft strategy is the remaining piece you have to worry about. Here are the biggest takeaways I have made from drafting best ball teams on Underdog:
- The field undervalues the quarterback position. Former DFS player Chess_is_ok once called me a fish for drafting 3 QBs in Best Ball – but I did my 80 hours of research on this one. Mathematically, it pays to have a third quarterback on your team compared to a sixth running back, ninth wide receiver or third tight end. The points added calculation in our NFL best ball Rankings projects the average amount of points each player will contribute to your team performance over a season. The assumptions we are making are that you are drafting an optimally allocated team. From our research, that is three quarterbacks, five or six running backs, eight or nine wide receivers and two or three tight ends. You can deviate accordingly from this if you are particularly strong or weak in a position.
- The reason people do not want to draft three quarterbacks is mostly because in redraft leagues you only typically draft one and they are afraid that if you have two quarterbacks have huge weeks on your team, you are missing out on points from one, which is not the case with any other position. Let’s think about that a second. If you have two quarterbacks that have monster weeks, you are going to be set up for success regardless.
- One of my favorite late-round quarterbacks last year was Ben Roethlisberger. Since Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson and Juju-Smith Schuster were players I was targeting in the draft, Big Ben was usually one of the quarterbacks on the board late in a draft that would complete my draft. People really underestimate the number of fantasy points even a late round QB can add to your season long fantasy points total. Derek Carr was another QB I frequently drafted in 2021 and Patrick Mahomes was the top QB on the board, and if you drafted those two Big Ben still added 20 points to your season total, which is significant for a late round pick.
Week Patrick Mahomes Derek Carr Ben Roethlisberger DC+PM BR+DC+PM Week Patrick Mahomes Derek Carr Ben Roethlisberger DC+PM BR+DC+PM 01 33.3 23.0 12.0 33.3 33.3 02 23.0 22.2 14.8 23.0 23.0 03 24.9 20.2 15.2 24.9 24.9 04 32.7 15.4 10.3 32.7 32.7 05 23.0 8.2 16.0 23.0 23.0 06 23.0 19.5 10.9 23.0 23.0 07 10.7 20.0 0.0 20.0 20.0 08 15.0 0.0 14.6 15.0 15.0 09 10.4 14.3 16.2 14.3 16.2 10 36.2 19.2 0.0 36.2 36.2 11 10.5 11.6 22.9 11.6 22.9 12 0.0 21.0 10.5 21.0 21.0 13 13.6 12.4 17.3 13.6 17.3 14 20.3 13.5 23.8 20.3 23.8 15 30.6 11.1 11.9 30.6 30.6 16 22.3 11.5 7.4 22.3 22.3 17 20.9 12.2 7.8 20.9 20.9 Total 350.5 255.6 211.7 385.8 406.2
- Because most of the time people are only grabbing two quarterbacks, that opens up some great value options later in the draft. One final consideration is the four-legged setup of these huge tourneys. Rosters are going to get more similar each week of playoffs as lineups with the boom players from each week move on. If you have three quarterbacks, you are guaranteed to have at least one quarterback that is not overly represented in the final round. Pretty important that you have a unique stack in a field of 470 people.
- We only have three years of data on best ball tournaments, so it is difficult to have definitive roster construction takeaways at this point from a results-based approach. It is similar to trying to determine the optimal DFS strategy from 3 slates — that’s why simulations are preferable.
- Don’t be afraid to let guys drop. This works best from the middle draft spots where you have to wait a moderate number of spots between each pick. But if you think there is a good chance you can get a guy in the next round even though they are the best pick now, then it can be a worthwhile gamble. The differential between your draft pick and ranking is a good proxy for the value you are getting out of that pick.
- You can wait on wide receiver’s and quarterbacks until towards the end of the draft but running back and tight end can be riskier to wait on. Wide receiver has a lot of viable players that go undrafted every time just because there are so many – three per team is 96, which is eight per roster. Since you only need 3 of 8 to have good performances, you can make up for quality with quantity to some extent. quarterback is just being neglected in drafts a lot right now as well, so I do not mind letting them fall and getting the ones who do.
- Because wide receivers are mostly being drafted higher by the opposition on Underdog than my rankings, I have been prioritizing getting ones early that look like fair buys at the draft position because better values exist at other positions later in the draft.
- Know the scoring settings of your draft- Underdog is half point PPR so wide receivers and tight ends are significantly nerfed compared to a full point PPR system. If you are using our rankings as a reference, then these differences are already going to be fully accounted for when you draft.
- It pays to draft balanced between positions early. If you take the top-ranked player every time, you are going to be running out of roster spots for one or two position. This can be a disadvantage strategically because you are not going to be able to take advantage of other players at that position when they drop later in the draft.
- Stacking is more important for certain players than others. quarterbacks that can add a lot of fantasy scoring rushing I am not worried at all about stacking. People tend to overdraft receivers from teams like Baltimore and Philadelphia, so it is tough to pull off the stack, but I still like Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts. But if you do not have receivers with a quarterback that does not rush, you are in a tough spot. Guys like Jared Goff or Tom Brady are unlikely to have a league-winning week without at least one receiver if not two crushing. Those QB2 and QB3 picks you should be able to match with your receivers easily. I am willing to draft guys a round ahead of their ADP to make sure someone else doesn’t ruin my draft.
- Know the draft dynamics and logistics of the site that your draft is on. Underdog defaults to ADP when autodrafting players. On Underdog, I upload my rankings as a CSV, but I do not believe you can also sort by ADP and see your rankings concurrently. Because it is difficult to reference the rankings while doing multiple drafts, the best way for me to sort is by ranking, and then I will just factor in the ADP when I am making picks.
If you apply these strategies and utilize our rankings combined with your intuition, you are going to be competitive with every lineup you draft. For more information on best ball, make sure to head over to our Fantasy Football home page and our Fantasy Football YouTube channel.
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