Tonight’s slate isn’t the most exciting, but there is money to be made nonetheless, so we’re going to talk about some pitchers in this article. There are two guys that should carry a lot of the ownership in tournaments — Berrios and Gonzalez — and then it’s sort of a mess after that. If you want more analysis on each game on tonight’s slate, check out this morning’s MLB Strategy Video. Awesemo will update this article later with his own notes, so check back before lock!
Jose Berrios ($11,000 DK/$9,000 FD)
Berrios will likely be the highest-owned pitcher in tournaments tonight, but it’s hard to argue against him in this matchup with the White Sox. Chicago should roll out at least 5 righties tonight and their lineup is filled with free-swingers, as 5 players strikeout over 25% of the time vs. righty pitchers. Berrios has been great against right-handed bats since the start of 2017, striking out 24.7% and only allowing 23.3% hard-contact with a 0.92 WHIP. The White Sox rank in the top-5 in both Swinging-Strike% and O-Swing%, so there is certainly potential for double-digit Ks For Berrios tonight, making him a tough fade at high ownership.
Sonny Gray ($7,700 DK/$8,400 FD)
Gray is better suited for DraftKings tonight, where the win isn’t as important and his price is depressed, but he makes some sense on both sites tonight. His raw stuff has been awesome this year as Gray is in the top-15 in Whiff/Swing rate in the MLB, keeping company with guys like Noah Syndergaard and Dylan Bundy. The Red Sox have some strikeouts near the bottom of their order with guys like Bradley, Jr., Devers, Leon, and Holt, who all strikeout over 20% of the time vs. righties. The weather is something to keep an eye on if you’re looking to play Gray, but assuming this game plays fine, he’s one of my favorite tournament plays at what should be relatively low ownership.
Nick Tropeano ($5,500 DK)
Tropeano is only available on DraftKings tonight, so if you’re only playing FanDuel tonight, you’ll miss the Tropeano train. He is coming off a Tommy John surgery that forced him to miss all of 2017, but it looks like he’s had a solid spring, and he struck out 7 in 3.2 innings in his only Triple-A start on April 6. The raw stuff is there for Tropeano, and this matchup is not a scary one against the Royals outside of some lefty power like Duda and Moustakas. This is a risky play with some strong winds blowing out in Kansas City, but at this price, it’s hard to find someone that has shown upside that Tropeano has, so I’m willing to get some exposure to him tonight on this short slate.
I agree with Jake about Berrios being both the top overall pitcher and highest owned for the night. Whether or not he has a good game will dramatically affect the results of tournaments. Jake mentions Sonny Gray being a good pick on DraftKings as a contrarian option, and I think he’s certainly playable, but an option I like better tonight is Lucas Giolito. I think that Sonny Gray’s reputation and the fact he plays for the Yankees mean that he won’t be as unowned as the matchup suggests. Giolito’s strikeout numbers in the minors (24.3 K% over 551 batters faced in 2017) suggest he has much better upside than his performances to this date, and he’s going up against a chalky stack. Tropeano is a great choice for SP2 in cash games and tournaments given his price and strikeout potential.