Today’s MLB main slate is a massive 12-game offering that locks at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, May 14
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Cardinals-Angels: Reid Detmers
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 11.0%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,300
Unlike last night’s 12-game slate where ownership at pitcher was pretty spread out, there are five pitchers projected for the majority of ownership tonight. That leaves quite a few contrarian arms to choose from, and Angels left-hander Reid Detmers is the best of the bunch. Although Detmers was in much better form at the beginning of the year, his underlying numbers call for some positive regression, and there’s a lot to like about him tonight.
With so many good pitchers to choose from, it’s not a shock that Detmers isn’t getting a ton of love, especially when considering his recent outings. After averaging 30 DraftKings points through his first three starts, Detmers has seemingly fallen off a cliff, averaging just 7.36 DraftKings points in the five starts since. When taking a peek under the hood, however, it’s evident that Detmers hasn’t been nearly as bad as his actual numbers imply. Coming into tonight with a subpar 4.96 ERA and .330 WOBA, Detmers’ 3.41 xERA and .297 xWOBA look much more like the pitcher we saw at the beginning of the season.
Not only is Detmers falling through the cracks, but the Cardinals are also expected to be one of the most popular stacks on DraftKings. Considering St. Louis’ struggles against left-handed pitching, Detmers isn’t getting nearly the love he should be getting in a prime leverage spot.
As of this writing, Detmers is the clear top-leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool. He is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 11.0% of the time, but only 4.8% of the field is expected to click his name. Those numbers don’t even account for the leverage against the popular Cardinals bats, only making Detmers look that much better.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Yankees-Twins: Twins
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 3.5%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 1.7%
When I did the MLB DFS Strategy Show with Loughy this morning, the Twins were projected to be one of the highest-owned offenses on DraftKings. That has quickly changed, and now Minnesota has emerged as the top contrarian stack on the board. Although the Twins have had their struggles against right-handed pitching this season (see Manoah, Alex), they have been one of the best offenses in baseball against southpaws. Matched up with Yankees left-hander Carlos Rodon, the Twins aren’t in the best spot in the world, but Rodon isn’t impervious to bad starts, and Minnesota’s upside is massive.
When Rodon has his A+ stuff, he can look like one of the best pitchers in baseball. He doesn’t always have his best stuff, however, and facing a Twins team that will attack him with eight or nine right-handed hitters is a tough ask. Though there is some pinch-hit risk with some of the righties towards the bottom half of their lineup, it won’t matter much if they knock Rodon out of the game early.
We don’t get any real leverage against Rodon himself considering he’s only projected to be 7.5% owned. That said, the Twins are still the clear top contrarian stack on DraftKings. Minnesota is currently projected to be the top stack 3.5% of the time this slate plays out, and only 1.7% lineups are projected to roster them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Braves, Padres, Rangers, Mariners
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