In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.
*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
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DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | Jan. 6
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom CandidatesÂ
Paul George vs. Warriors: $9,000/$8,900
33.6% DraftKings Boom/40.4% FanDuel Boom
After appearing as a bust candidate for me yesterday, George finds himself on the boom side of the article. The reason is because of the expected statuses of Clippers’ players. George is considered questionable because of an ankle injury, but I don’t think this is a legitimate injury. Los Angeles is playing on the tail end of a back-to-back. In order to skirt some of the resting rules, I suspect they came up with last night’s injury to rest him. I expect Kawhi Leonard to rest tonight with George returning to the lineup. If this is the case, George is in line for a bigger role. He has a 35.4% usage rate when Leonard is off the court this season.
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Clint Capela vs. Hornets: $6,700/$6,500
29.3% DraftKings Boom/48.6% FanDuel Boom
Capela remains underpriced. He’s seen a slight uptick in salary after a few strong games in a row, and it isn’t enough. We haven’t seen much of Capela on the Hawks, but what we have seen is promising. His rates don’t look much different from his time in Houston, and his playing time is no longer a concern. After playing limited minutes to start the season, Capela played is averaging 30 minutes in his last three games and finished with a double-double in all of them. His price is over $1,000 cheaper than it was when we last saw him healthy with the Rockets, and it looks like his production in Atlanta will mirror what he’s done in the past.
Lou Williams vs. Warriors: $4,400/$4,000
31.2% DraftKings Boom/44.4% FanDuel Boom
Like George, Williams stands to benefit from the assumed Leonard rest. Williams has a 24% usage rate when Leonard is off the court, and we can expect him to play extended minutes if the Clippers are shorthanded. There is a bit of concern here since he only played 21 minutes last night, but I think this is because Los Angeles was saving him for a bigger role tonight. This is also a good game environment for the Clippers to put up points. The Warriors are playing at the fastest pace in the league and rank bottom 10 in defensive efficiency.
NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates
Donovan Mitchell vs. Knicks: $8,200/$7,800
49% DraftKings Bust/48.6% FanDuel Bust
Playing against the Knicks isn’t as easy as a matchup as we assumed before the season. The Knicks are playing competitively to start the season and could end up as a borderline playoff team. From a fantasy standpoint, it looks like New York could limit production. The Knicks are playing at the fourth-slowest pace in the league with an above-average defensive efficiency. Despite this information, Mitchell is priced up and the Jazz are playing on the tail end of a back-to-back. This is a much harder spot for Utah than it looks at first glance.
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