This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS picks article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal daily fantasy basketball picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | May 18
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook ($12,400 DraftKings/$13,000 FanDuel) posted another ridiculous line against Charlotte in the final game of the regular season. Tonight, he faces the Celtics in the 7/8 play-in game. Westbrook has averaged 39 minutes per game over the last month and he played 40.2 minutes against the Hornets. In 28 games alongside Bradley Beal since the All-Star break, Westbrook has averaged 1.68 DraftKings points per minute. It will be a little bit more difficult to roster Westbrook on this slate since there are only two games and a shortage of value, but he is still someone I want to find a way to get into my lineups.
Malcolm Brogdon ($8,700 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) is questionable for tonight’s game against the Hornets. Brogdon hasn’t played since April 29, so there is no guarantee that he is able to play tonight even though it is a must win game for Indiana. If he does play, it is also possible that he is limited or hampered by his injury, which makes him a risky option. Brogdon also has a very high ceiling if he is able to play, however, as Caris LeVert will miss tonight’s game so there is more usage available. Domantas Sabonis is also questionable, though he played 39 minutes against Toronto on Sunday so my expectation is that he suits up tonight. Brogdon has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.6 percent usage rate and 26.4 percent assist rate in 26 games played without LeVert or Victor Oladipo and with Sabonis this season. His FanDuel salary is much more appealing than his DraftKings salary.
LaMelo Ball ($8,100 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) played 33.5 minutes against Washington on Sunday, which is the most he has played in any of his last five games. Ball could play a couple more minutes tonight since it is a must win game for Charlotte, but even if he only plays 33 to 34 minutes, he offers plenty of upside in a pace-up spot against the Pacers. Indiana is second in pace over the last month. Ball has played 14 games without Gordon Hayward this season and has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute.
Kemba Walker ($7,300 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) hasn’t played since May 11th but he is not on the injury report for the Celtics tonight. Unless we hear otherwise, I’m not expecting him to be limited. Walker will need to take on a big role for the short-handed Celtics who are without Jaylen Brown for the rest of the season. Walker played 38 minutes in his most recent game and 40 minutes in the game before that, so I am assuming that he approaches 40 minutes again tonight. He has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in 10 games without Brown and with Jayson Tatum this season. He has a 30.0 percent usage rate and 19.9 percent assist rate in those games and has averaged 34.8 minutes per game.
Top DraftKings Picks: Russell Westbrook, Kemba Walker
Top FanDuel Picks: Russell Westbrook, LaMelo Ball
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Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($9,000 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) is a very risky option tonight. He played 34.6 minutes against the Hornets last game but was clearly still bothered by the hamstring injury that had caused him to miss the last couple of games. Beal has said playing against Charlotte didn’t make the injury worse and that he will play through it again tonight. The risk is that we don’t know how much, if at all, it will limit his production and there is obviously an increased risk of in-game injury. The reason that Beal offers some appeal, especially on DraftKings, is that the risk will most likely scare some people away. If Beal doesn’t have a setback, we will likely get about 38 minutes from the NBA’s second leading scorer for only $9,000. He has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.4 percent usage rate in the 28 games that he has played alongside Westbrook since the All-Star break. I don’t think that Beal will show up in my cash builds tonight, but he is worth a look in tournaments.
Terry Rozier ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) gets a great matchup against the Pacers and he is likely to play 38 to 40 minutes tonight. Rozier has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 14 games without Hayward and with Ball active this season. In those games, Rozier has a 25.2 percent usage rate and has averaged 36.6 minutes per game.
Devonte’ Graham ($6,100 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) played 30.8 minutes against Washington on Sunday and I anticipate getting similar minutes from Graham tonight. He is the third wheel in the Charlotte backcourt as he produces fewer fantasy points per minute and averages less minutes per game than Rozier and Ball, but he is also the cheapest of the trio so he can be a useful piece for rounding out lineups. Graham has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute and 29.7 minutes per game in seven games alongside Ball and Rozier without Hayward this season.
Marcus Smart ($5,800 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel), like Walker, hasn’t played since May 11th. He isn’t on tonight’s injury report so I am expecting him not to be limited tonight. Smart has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute in seven games alongside Walker and Tatum without Brown this season. He has averaged 34.2 minutes per game in those games, but it is likely that we see 38 to 40 minutes from Smart tonight. While he isn’t likely to dominate any particular offensive category, the matchup with the Wizards is a favorable one for Smart’s defensive skill set given Russell Westbrook’s propensity for turning the ball over.
Edmond Sumner ($3,400 DraftKings/$3,900 PG FanDuel) is questionable tonight. If he is able to play, we are likely to see him soak up a lot of the minutes vacated by Caris LeVert. Sumner hasn’t played since May 10th, but there is a chance he would start tonight without LeVert. Value is hard to come by on this slate so, if he starts, Sumner would stand out as a strong point-per-dollar value that allows you to get studs into your lineups elsewhere.
Top DraftKings Picks: Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart
Top FanDuel Picks: Terry Rozier, Marcus Smart
Small Forward
Miles Bridges ($7,000 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) re-joined the Hornets’ starting lineup against Washington and led the team with 39.6 minutes. He has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute and 33.4 minutes per game in eight total games without Hayward and with Ball and Rozier active. His salary isn’t particularly enticing, but the small forward position is awful tonight so Bridges’ playing time makes him a strong option. He’s also Awesemo’s No. 9-ranked player in our daily fantasy projections.
Evan Fournier ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) had a rough start to his time with the Celtics, but he has turned things around recently. Overall, he has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute in 16 games with Boston. In 10 starts, he has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute and 31.6 minutes per game. I buy into his recent uptick in performance because we know that he was playing through headaches and blurred vision early on in Boston and he has a track record of producing about a fantasy point per minute when he was with Orlando. He is likely to soak up some of the usage left by Jaylen Brown and is my favorite small forward option tonight.
Justin Holiday ($4,500 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) started and played 30.3 minutes against the Raptors on Sunday. We know that there will be plenty of minutes available again tonight and that number would only increase if Brogdon and/or Sumner are unable to play. Holiday has averaged 0.69 DraftKings points per minute and 31.7 minutes per game in 52 starts this season. He isn’t a high-upside option, but value is limited tonight and the small forward position is extremely thin.
Top DraftKings Picks: Evan Fournier, Justin Holiday
Top FanDuel Picks: Miles Bridges, Evan Fournier
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”05/18/2021″ team=”celtics”]
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis ($10,000 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel) is questionable tonight but I think he is likely to play since he played nearly 40 minutes in Indiana’s last game. Sabonis has been excellent recently and he will need to step up again tonight with the Pacers missing LeVert and possibly Brogdon in addition to long-term absentees Myles Turner and T.J. Warren. Sabonis has averaged 1.62 DraftKings points per minute and 37.2 minutes per game in 10 games without Brogdon or Turner. He has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute in 26 games alongside Brogdon without LeVert or Oladipo this season, but Turned was active for most of those games as well. Sabonis looks like a strong option regardless of Brogdon’s status, but he is a much better option if Brogdon is unable to play.
Jayson Tatum ($9,800 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) gets one of the most favorable matchups possible as he faces the Wizards tonight. He will need to carry Boston’s offense with Brown sidelined. In 10 games without Brown and with Walker this season, Tatum has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.4 percent usage rate in 37.4 minutes per game.
P.J. Washington ($7,200 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) played 30.4 minutes against Washington on Sunday but he didn’t close the game as Graham and Cody Zeller were in the closing lineup. There is a chance Washington doesn’t close tonight either, but we could also see him close over Zeller depending on how each is playing. If Washington is in the closing lineup, he is likely to play 36-plus minutes. He has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute and 33.4 minutes per game in 7 games alongside Ball, Bridges and Rozier without Hayward this season.
Oshae Brissett ($5,400 DraftKings/$5,700 SF FanDuel) played 36.1 minutes on Sunday and he is likely to see similar playing time tonight against Charlotte. Brissett has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute and 30.9 minutes per game in 16 starts this season. He is reasonably priced and provides some salary relief tonight.
Rui Hachimura ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,100 SF FanDuel) isn’t the safest option but he is inexpensive and has a relatively high ceiling for the price tag. Hachimura played about 34 minutes against Charlotte on Sunday, and while we can never totally trust Scott Brooks’ rotations outside of Beal and Westbrook, Hachimura is likely to play big minutes again tonight as long as he is playing reasonably well. He has averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute and 31.6 minutes per game in 43 total games played alongside Beal and Westbrook this season.
Doug McDermott ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) is a top-5 point-per-dollar option tonight, according to Awesemo’s expert daily fantasy basketball projections, after playing 32.4 minutes against the Raptors on Sunday. There is no guarantee that McDermott exceeds 30 minutes again, as he started and only played about 24 minutes in his previous game, but LeVert’s absence means that the Pacers will need more scoring and McDermott can help in that area. He played about 20 minutes in the second half with LeVert sidelined on Sunday. McDermott has started 29 games this season and has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute and 27.1 minutes per game.
Top DraftKings Picks: Domantas Sabonis, Jayson Tatum, Oshae Brissett, Doug McDermott
Top FanDuel Picks: Domantas Sabonis, Jayson Tatum, Doug McDermott
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”05/18/2021″ team=”hornets”]
Center
Robert Williams ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) is one of the more volatile options on tonight’s slate. He hasn’t played since May 9th but he is probable tonight. We don’t know yet if he will start or come off the bench. If he starts, he offers a very high ceiling in tonight’s matchup against Washington. Williams has started six games in which Tristan Thompson was also active this season. He has averaged 22.8 minutes per game and 1.04 DraftKings points per minute in those games. Overall, he has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute and 18.9 minutes per game this season. He isn’t a high-usage player, but he has a 20.2 percent rebounding rate and 14.2 percent assist rate this season in addition to averaging 1.8 blocks per game in only 18.9 minutes.
Tristan Thompson ($4,800 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) has averaged 25.2 minutes per game in six games off the bench behind Williams and 26.7 minutes per game in four games with Williams active and Daniel Theis inactive this season. In 43 total starts, Thompson has averaged 24.3 minutes per game and 0.91 DraftKings points per minute. The center position doesn’t offer much to be confident in tonight and Thompson’s price tag in a favorable matchup makes him one of the top values.
Cody Zeller ($4,700 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) played 29.7 minutes against Washington on Sunday and he was in the closing lineup. He started and played about 34 minutes in regulation in Charlotte’s previous game, but he moved back to the bench when Bridges replaced him in the starting lineup. Zeller is risky because there is no guarantee he closes again tonight since P.J. Washington didn’t close the last game. He has a high ceiling for his salary, however, as he has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute this season and has a path to 30 minutes. It’s also worth mentioning he’s Awesemo’s No. 1 value play on the slate, according to our daily fantasy basketball projections. I wouldn’t play more than two of Bridges, Washington and Zeller in the same lineup.
Daniel Gafford ($3,700 DraftKings/$4,800 PF FanDuel) and Robin Lopez ($3,100 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) are worth tournament fliers on DraftKings specifically. These two are the most productive parts of Washington’s three man center rotation. Alex Len only played one rotation in their game against Charlotte on Sunday with Gafford starting the second half. We have seen Gafford replace Len in the second half several times this season, so I don’t necessarily think that he starts tonight. It is likely that one of Gafford or Lopez plays the bulk of the minutes tonight, however. Gafford offers the highest ceiling in terms of per-minute production as he has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute in 23 games with the Wizards. Over Washington’s last 10 games, Len has averaged 13.7 minutes per game while Gafford has averaged 17.7 minutes per game and Lopez has averaged 16.8 minutes per game.
Top DraftKings Picks: Tristan Thompson/Robert Williams (prefer the starter), Cody Zeller
Top FanDuel Picks: Tristan Thompson/Robert Williams (prefer the starter), Cody Zeller
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