After an exciting opening night with the home teams taking care of business, we have a 12-game NBA slate scheduled for tonight. Now is when the real fun begins! With so many options to choose from, making lineups will be much easier so let’s dive into a few of my favorite plays. This article will feature three boom candidates in all each pricing tier and one bust/fade option. These plays below are driven by Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust Tool.
Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections Today
NBA DFS Today Boom: Nikola Jokic: $10,300 DraftKings/$11,600 FanDuel
58.4% DraftKings Boom/32.0% FanDuel Boom
After watching Joel Embiid last night finish with 26 points and 15 rebounds, Nikola Jokic will get his chance to match him in a matchup against the Utah Jazz. Normally when you see a matchup for a center against the Jazz you look to fade this spot. However, with Rudy Gobert gone to Minnesota, the Jazz will start Kelly Olynyk with rookie Walker Kessler backing him up trying to stop Jokic. Good luck. Last season, Jokic had a career and league-high 1.84 DraftKings points per minute. To no surprise, Jokic leads the slate on both sites with the highest projection tonight.
The Nuggets do get Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back from injury, which may take some usage away from Jokic, but not enough to fade him in this matchup. They will likely ease both players back and feed Jokic the ball as much as possible. Our model has Murray and Porter Jr. projected for around 28 minutes tonight. Last season, the Nuggets led the league in post-up points and ranked second in post-up possessions. Against this undersized and young Jazz frontcourt, expect Jokic to feast. The Nuggets are 7.5-point road favorites implied for 114.5 points. Play Jokic.
NBA DFS Today Boom: Buddy Hield: $6,100 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel
35.0% DraftKings Boom/41.8% FanDuel Boom
Leading the slate with the highest boom percentage on FanDuel is Pacers forward Buddy Hield. After joining the Pacers midway through the season last year with Tyrese Haliburton, this backcourt should put up some numbers this season. Hield and big man Myles Turner may eventually be traded away, but for now, they remain on the Pacers, who are looking to build on their 25-57 finish last season. With no Malcolm Brogdon on the team, Hield will be looking at another year of high volume. He averaged 18.2 points on 15.6 field goal attempts per game in the 25 games he played with the Pacers last year.
This Pacers and Wizards matchup has the third-highest total on the slate at 227.5 points. The Wizards ranked 25th in defensive rating last season, while the Pacers ranked 28th. There won’t be much defense played in this matchup tonight, which sets up perfectly for Hield, who loves to play one side of the floor anyway. Even though Hield has the highest boom percentage on FanDuel, his optimal percentage is 4.6% higher than his ownership percentage, making him a very strong leverage option. Prioritize Hield on FanDuel where he is tied with Jokic with a 20.9% optimal percentage.
NBA DFS Today Boom: Tre Jones: $4,200 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel
59.1% DraftKings Boom/39.0% FanDuel Boom
After spending much of his career playing in the G-League or coming off the bench in the NBA, Tre Jones will be thrust into the starting lineup now that Dejounte Murray has left town. We saw some of his upsides last season when Jones started for the Spurs. In 11 starts, he averaged 13.5 points, 7.5 assists and 4.6 rebounds per game. He had three double-doubles with one near triple-double in those starts, as he is known for his facilitating. Jones has the highest boom percentage on DraftKings and the second-highest on FanDuel in this matchup against the Hornets.
The Spurs are not going to win many games this season, but they are only 1.5-point home underdogs against the Hornets tonight. Last season, the Hornets ranked fifth in pace, while the Spurs ranked sixth, so don’t be surprised if this is a sneaky fast-paced game. The Hornets also ranked 22nd in defensive rating, as they will be without LaMelo Ball, who led the team in steals, and Miles Bridges. This is a pretty juicy matchup for Jones, who has too cheap of a salary. With so many studs to pay up for like Jokic, getting to Jones is salary relief in a stars and scrubs lineup build.
NBA DFS Today Bust: Zion Williamson: $9,100 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel
78.0% DraftKings Bust/75.2% FanDuel Bust
Both sites, but especially DraftKings, bumped Zion Williamson‘s salary way too high to open the season. For a player who has been put on a pitch count for most of his young career, it is difficult to think Williamson is going to pay off this price tag. He missed all of the last season with an injury and even with our Stokastic projections having Williamson projected for 30.8 minutes in the season opener, he is rating out as the worst play on the slate. In our NBA DFS Rankings, Williamson has a B Grade on both sites, but an E value on DraftKings and a D value on FanDuel.
In the 2020-’21 season, Williamson was incredible, averaging a team-high 27 points per game while shooting 61.1% from the field. This Pelicans team is a little different now since he has come back. They added CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas and Herbert Jones to the starting lineup. McCollum was incredible with the Pelicans last season, helping them reach the first round of the playoffs. Valanciunas averaged a double-double with 17.8 points and 11.4 rebounds per game. Pair that with Brandon Ingram, who had a career-high 29.3% usage rate last season, and not only is this Pelicans team much better, but they won’t need to rely on Williamson to score 25+ a game anymore. Take a wait-and-see approach with Williamson and this team.
