Sunday Night Football features the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field, with the Kansas City Chiefs looking for the equalizer that will allow them to reclaim a share of the AFC leadership, while the Green Bay Packers try to secure a third consecutive victory. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Chiefs-Packers DFS picks for the Sunday Night Football Showdown slate.
Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Sunday Night slate, so check out these Chiefs-Packers DFS picks.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Chiefs-Packers DFS Picks
Kansas City Chiefs: 24.5 Points
Quarterback
The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Patrick Mahomes as the QB2 this week on both DraftKings and FanDuel, trailing only Jalen Hurts. The reigning NFL and Super Bowl MVP has a median projection that is 5 points higher than any other player in the FanDuel player pool, and on DraftKings only his primary pass-catcher is inside that range.
While it has been a down year for Mahomes, he still is fourth with 21 passing touchdowns and seventh with 265.2 aerial yards per game. The dramatic improvement of the Kansas City defense, which is allowing the third-fewest (16.5) points in the league, has kept some of the pressure off of the offense. Of course, that is a good thing since this is arguably the worst group of wideouts ever to play with Mahomes.
Though he does not look to run often, Mahomes is nimble enough to take what the defense gives him. This has resulted in a career-high 27.7 yards rushing per game, though he has yet to score.
Precipitation should not be an issue, and while snow is in the forecast, it should wrap up in the late afternoon, though it will be cold along with a slight breeze. This is a variable that Mahomes is familiar with, as December and January can be quite frigid in Kansas City.
Running Back
Jerick McKinnon is going to miss a second consecutive game with a groin injury. Last week this resulted in Isiah Pacheco earning a season-high 78% snap share, with the out-of-favor Clyde Edwards-Helaire spelling him on a dozen plays and La’Mical Perine getting on the field for one snap.
Eight different running backs have tallied 60-plus rushing yards against the Packers, and Green Bay is allowing the sixth-most (135.2) rushing yards per game. Looking at the trends and giving a nod to the cold weather, Pacheco should see between 15 and 20 carries, with a handful of targets in the passing game.
Edwards-Helaire is a punt option on FanDuel ($6,000) and DraftKings ($2,600); though his workload seems bleak, he did have two red zone looks last week with McKinnon on the shelf. His real path to relevance would be via a fortuitous touchdown or something befalling Pacheco during the game.
Wide Receivers
Mecole Hardman Jr. is out, but everyone else will be available, including Kadarius Toney (ankle/hip), who missed last week. Richie James returned from the injured reserve, and he was on the field for nine offensive plays. There is no clear fantasy leader among this group, though rookie Rashee Rice is the most intriguing option, as he continues to find his sea legs. Last week he saw a career-high 10 targets, and he has five or more in eight of his 11 games.
Skyy Moore has regressed, Justin Watson has wildly inconsistent target volume and Marquez Valdes-Scantling has mostly been a zero since leaving Green Bay, as he has just three touchdowns in 28 games with Mahomes as his quarterback. Perhaps he will rise to the occasion tonight, but we should not hold our breath.
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce leads the team by 32 targets despite missing the opener. Even in his age-34 season, Kelce is still arguably the best tight end in the game, and his chemistry with Mahomes is undeniable. Green Bay has been vulnerable to the top tight ends, with both T.J. Hockenson and Sam LaPorta scoring touchdowns against them in the last month.
Noah Gray is a decent punt option, and he has three targets in three of the last four games and 28 on the season. He should be on the field for around half of the snaps, with Blake Bell popping up in short-yardage and obvious rushing situations. Bell has just five targets on the season, but he did get a touchdown in the game Kelce missed, and he had one score on two targets last year as well.
Defense/Special Teams
Kansas City has three or more sacks in six of the last seven games, with five interceptions and four fumble recoveries during this stretch. Green Bay has ceded three or more sacks in three of the last five games, though the Packers average just one turnover per tilt.
Green Bay Packers: 18.5 Points
Quarterback
Jordan Love has at least been trending in the right direction, but the 26th selection in the 2020 NFL Draft has not been particularly effective for most of the season. The lack of experienced pass-catchers is obvious, as most of his wide receivers are rookies or second-year players. Kansas City has the third-best passing DVOA, and Kirk Cousins (284) is the only quarterback to throw for more than 260 yards against them. This includes games against Jalen Hurts (150), Tua Tagovailoa (193), Justin Herbert (259) and Russell Wilson twice (95. 114).
Love does have multiple touchdowns and at least 268 passing yards in each of the last three games. He has the best chance among the Packers to reach 20 fantasy points tonight, but that is far from a guarantee.
Running Back
Aaron Jones is out and AJ Dillon is dealing with a groin injury, though the team has been off since its Thanksgiving Day game. Dillon has played in four games without Jones, averaging 15 carries for just shy of 52 yards and his only touchdown of the season. He also has five targets in these games, catching four for another 46 yards. These performances have been the definition of ugly.
Patrick Taylor was the only other running back to get snaps last week. While he had just three carries for 11 yards and one target, which he caught for 4 yards, he did have a 48% snap share. FanDuel is ahead of the game, moving his salary up to $9,500, but DraftKings missed the boat with a $2,000 salary.
Wide Receiver
Jayden Reed has been managing a chest injury but is expected to play tonight, as is Dontayvion Wicks, who has been limited with a knee issue. Second-year receivers Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson have been leading the way with snaps, though Reed has not been far behind, and he also has five carries for 62 yards and a touchdown over the last two games.
Watson missed the first three games this season, but he has found the end zone in each of his last two appearances. Green Bay receivers have topped 90 yards only four times this season, with Watson (94, 91) recording two and Doubs (95) and Wicks (91) claiming the others. Doubs leads the team with seven touchdowns, while Reed has six, including his rushing score, and Watson has three.
This is a whack-a-mole scenario, though not quite as complicated as the Kansas City side. Reed, Doubs and Watson should each see a five-target baseline, though the variable will be how the other 15 targets to this position are distributed.
Tight End
Luke Musgrave is on the injured reserve and Josiah Deguara missed the last game with a hip injury and he was limited during the long week of practice. Tucker Kraft has filled the void, and he has two targets in each of his last three games, plus a Turkey Day touchdown.
Undrafted rookie Ben Sims has stepped into the void, but he has just three targets on the year and his look last week was the first since Week 7. Musgrave was third on the team with 45 targets, so whichever players are suiting up for the Packers at this position are viable lottery tickets.
Defense/Special Teams
Kansas City has ceded two or fewer sacks in all but one game this season, though the 19 turnovers are the fifth most in the league. Green Bay has a scant 12 takeaways, which is the fifth fewest, and the Pack Attack is recording only 2.4 sacks per game.
Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.
Chiefs-Packers DFS Picks Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Chiefs-Packers
- Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
- Travis Kelce: Only other player with a median projection within 5 points of his quarterback.
- Isiah Pacheco: Volume should be there; touchdowns are the wild card.
- Jordan Love: Cold weather and a tough defense.
- Rashee Rice: Will be popular.
- A.J. Dillon: Damned if we do, damned if we don’t.
- Patrick Taylor: Viable discount dandy in DraftKings cash games (H2H, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.)
- Harrison Butker: No stranger to kicking outdoors; perfect on 20 field goal and 28 PAT attempts.
- Kansas City D/ST: Would rate above Taylor if this were a home game.
- Jayden Reed: Slight nod ahead of his teammates.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Chiefs-Packers
- Romeo Doubs: Leads the team in targets; behind his counterparts in the dynamism department.
- Christian Watson: In good form, but is that a mirage?
- Anders Carlson: Rookie is just 3 of 7 (42.8%) from beyond 40 yards and 20 of 23 on extra points.
- Tucker Kraft: No salary break, but that is keeping his popularity in check.
- Green Bay D/ST: Completes the team sweep of this section.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Chiefs-Packers
- Ben Sims and Josiah Deguara: Both are minimum-salary punts on DraftKings, and Deguara is an option for those building 20-plus lineups on FanDuel. If Deguara is out again, then Sims is in play on the blue site.
- Justin Watson: Far from sneaky and no longer a value play.
- Dontayvion Wicks: Missed the last game with a concussion and knee issue, though it was the former that really kept him out … we think.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: “Remember Me?!” potential.
- Noah Gray: Viable punt, who should get a couple targets.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire: It seems Andy Reid hates him, but Reid also seems to favor random running backs in primetime games. Derrick Gore #NeverForget.
- Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and Richie James: We are fooling ourselves if we think we know which is the best play prior to the end of the game. James is the minimum $200 on DraftKings, and he appears to be the main kick returner, though Moore and Toney have filled in during his injury absence.
- Emmanuel Wilson: Third-string running back but may not see the field outside of an injury to Dillon or Taylor.
- Malik Heath: Likely the odd man out if Wicks suits up.
- Blake Bell: Sadly, we rarely see the Belldozer with the ball.
- Bo Melton, Samori Toure, Henry Pearson, Justyn Ross, La’Mical Perine, James Robinson, Deneric Prince: Oh, heck no!
Stokastic NFL DFS Tools & Tips
Looking for more NFL DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for our NFL DFS Premium Package for access to our scoring projections, ownership projections and our state-of-the-art NFL DFS simulation tools. If you’re a beginner, you should check out our NFL DFS quick start guide put together by one of the world’s best DFS players, Alex “Awesemo” Baker. Our Premium Package costs just $35 per week or $115 per month — or you can upgrade to our MAX package for access to post-contest sims, more lineups and VIP support for $60 per week or $199 per month.
