LaMelo Ball DFS Projections & Predictions: What to Expect in Star Guard’s Return (January 12)

There’s a shakeup on the Friday night NBA DFS slate with the return of LaMelo Ball to the Charlotte Hornets.

Ball, who missed six weeks with an ankle injury, is expected to play on Friday against the San Antonio Spurs. The point guard is priced as the second most-expensive point guard on DraftKings at $9,500, trailing just Trae Young ($9,900). That puts him second for all guards as well.

Can we trust Ball enough to roster him at that price? Let’s look at Stokastic’s NBA projections and NBA Sims to help us get that answer.

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LaMelo Ball DFS Projections | Should You Roster Hornets Guard on Friday?

Before his injury, Ball averaged 24.7 points in 15 games. He’s also a triple-double threat, averaging 8.2 assists and 5.5 rebounds. In general, he’s one of the better DFS guards in the game.

That might not be the case on Friday.

Ball is projected for 42.99 points in 27.9 minutes. But his 4.52 points/dollar makes him a -4.51 value. At time of publish, Ball isn’t seeing much ownership — less than 1% actually. That gives him leverage on the field, as he’s projected to be optimal 2.40% of the time according to our Boom/Bust tool. But at his price, and with his bust chances so high, he sees to be someone we want to stay away from in the majority of our lineups.

This correlates with what NBA Sims is showing us.

When using the Sims for a contest of 5000 and 25% of the prize pool given to first, Ball was not in any of our top 150 lineups.

There will be great spots to use Ball coming up. However, tonight doesn’t appear to be that night unless you’re looking for extreme leverage.

Tommy Stokke is the Editor-in-Chief of Stokastic. He was previously a Senior Editor at Action Network, with prior experience in Managing Editor and Director of Content roles throughout sports media. His DFS sport of choice is golf, but his losing lineups are because no one can putt -- not because he picked the wrong players. He can be reached at [email protected]

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