NBA DFS Contrarian Picks: Domantas Sabonis, Come on Down (January 12)

We’re back with an eight-game NBA sprint slate on Friday, with all the games locking between 7:30 and 8 p.m. ET. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks on DraftKings this evening, including Domantas Sabonis and Nikola Jovic.

NBA DFS Contrarian Picks — Plays For Today

Contrarian Stud — Domantas Sabonis: Sacramento Kings-Philadelphia 76ers

Domantas Sabonis is the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at $10,200. Averaging 20.2 points, 12.7 rebounds, 7.7 assists and 1.4 steals/blocks per game this season, Sabonis has continued to establish himself as one of the premier commodities in fantasy basketball. While there are plenty of other spend-up options to choose from tonight, Sabonis is in a great spot against the Joel Embiid-less 76ers, and there’s a lot to like about him in tournaments at $10,200.

Despite Sabonis’ nightly dominance, the field is struggling to prioritize him on DraftKings, with only 8.60% of lineups expected to roster him. With an optimal percentage of 11.30%, it makes sense why Sabonis looks so good from a leverage perspective. Although there’s certainly some opportunity cost in spending all the way up on a center when there are other viable, cheaper options, Sabonis has slate-breaking upside every time he steps on the court.

Contrarian Mid-Tier — Nikola Jovic: Orlando Magic-Miami Heat

Nikola Jovic is DraftKings’ top contrarian mid-tier play at $8,800. The Heat are missing Jimmy Butler for the sixth straight game, and they will also be without the services of Tyler Herro tonight. With both Butler and Herro on the sidelines, every player on the Heat becomes more viable in DFS, and Bam Adebayo stands out as the spend-up option and Jovic is one of the best differentiators on the board.

Jovic is projected to be optimal 18.70% of the time, yet his 10.20% ownership projection falls well below that. He is also in good form right now, with at least 30 DraftKings points in three out of the past four games, and since the field is sleeping on him, he looks like a GPP building block at a very affordable $4,800 price point.

Contrarian Value — Cory Joseph: Golden State Warriors-Chicago Bulls

We’re back to dumpster diving for contrarian value, and Cory Joseph is the catch of the day at $3,200. Rostering Joseph never has been and never will be exciting; however, with him only $3,200 on DraftKings, the field isn’t getting to Joseph at nearly the rate they should be. Joseph’s box scores leave a lot to be desired, but he should play decent minutes tonight since Golden State is shorthanded in its backcourt. With no Chris Paul or Moses Moody, it’s difficult to imagine Joseph not playing at least some sort of role tonight.

As of this writing, Joseph is projected to be only 3.10% owned on DraftKings. While I completely understand why most people would laugh at the idea of rostering Joseph, Stokastic’s tools have him projected to be optimal 8.10% of the time this slate plays out. He’s only projected for only 14.11 DraftKings points, but Joseph’s $3,200 price tag opens up routes to roster construction.

Looking for more NBA DFS advice? You’ve come to the right place. Sign up for Stokastic’s NBA DFS Premium Package for access to player projections, ownership projections and Stokastic’s state-of-the-art NBA DFS simulation tools.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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