MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Back Jordan Montgomery Against the Dodgers? (May 1)

In the midst of an eight-game afternoon slate, we’re back with a seven-game MLB main slate that locks at 6:35 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.

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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wednesday, May 1

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MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher

Dodgers-Diamondbacks: Jordan Montgomery

Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 9.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,700

Even with only seven games on tonight’s docket, ownership is very spread out, with nine pitchers projected to be over 10% and six to be over 20% owned. Unsurprisingly, Jordan Montgomery. Though he’s still rounding back into form after waiting until March 29 to sign with Arizona, Montgomery has been rock solid through two starts in the desert, and the field is completely writing him off in a tough matchup against the Dodgers.

Montgomery’s lack of high-end strikeout upside limits his ceiling as a DFS commodity, but he excels at limiting hard contact, and he’s coming off a fantastic year that saw him post career-best numbers across the board. While picking on the Dodgers is more often than not a fool’s errand, Montgomery has similar pedigree as the other top pitchers on the slate, and Stokastic’s tools have him as the clear top differentiator among pitchers.

Montgomery has a 9.5% top-2 pitcher percentage and only 1.0% of lineups are expected to roster him, showing his value as a contrarian option in tournaments.

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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack

Red Sox-Giants: Giants

Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 7.4%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 11.8%

Coming off a shut out at the hands of Cooper Criswell and the Red Sox bullpen in the Giants’ first game in Boston since 2019, San Francisco is again the top contrarian stack on DraftKings. Though the Giants clearly weren’t good last night, they still find themselves in one of the biggest ballpark upgrades in baseball, going from Oracle Park to Fenway Park. Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford is also coming off his worst start of the season, and the Giants are projecting to be severely underowned.

Though Crawford has been good this season, his underlying numbers suggest at least some negative regression is coming. He currently sports a pristine 1.35 ERA, and while his 2.83 xERA is still very good, it’s likely that these numbers will even out the more innings he pitches. Similarly, Crawford has allowed a .245 WOBA to hitters this season, while his xWOBA sits at .271. Truth be told, Crawford is in play as one of the better pitching options tonight, but San Francisco has low ownership and is easy to get over the field on in large-field GPPs.

San Francisco is currently projected to be the top stack 7.4% of the time this slate plays out but is only drawing 5.6% ownership.

Stokastic runs over some of the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for daily fantasy baseball lineups like one...

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Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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