MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Marlins Against Walker Buehler? (May 6)

We’re back with a six-game MLB slate that locks at 7:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.

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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, May 6

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MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher

Padres-Cubs: Justin Steele

Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 14.7%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,000

Even on a small six-game slate, ownership is pretty spread out at pitcher, with eight arms projected to be higher than 10% owned. That leaves just four pitchers pulling single-digit ownership, with Cubs left-hander Justin Steele emerging as the top contrarian pitcher on DraftKings. Coming off a phenomenal 2023 campaign, Steele made just one start this season before hurting his hamstring in March. Though Steele clearly isn’t as stretched out as the other pitchers toeing the rubber tonight, he has fantastic stuff, and the field is sleeping on him in a big way on DraftKings.

Picking on the Padres is more often than not a fool’s errand. However, this is a play on Steele’s talent and lack of ownership more than anything else. If Steele were in a better spot, he would be getting more love, so it’s important to understand that, while that matchup is bad, it is part of what makes him so appealing in tournaments. After a 2023 season that saw Steele post a 3.06 ERA, 24.6% strikeout rate and a .244 WOBA, big things are expected of him now a year further into his development. The hamstring injury set him back, but it’s likely that Steele will continue his ascension into becoming one of the best left-handed starters in baseball.

Full disclosure, Steele only made one rehab start and was less than inspiring, allowing three runs on six hits over 3.1 innings. Though those results don’t mean a ton in the grand scheme of things, it’s also worth noting that Steele only threw 63 pitches in that outing, suggesting he will be somewhat limited from a workload perspective tonight. All that being said, Steele’s talent is too good to pass up with the field more or less crossing him out completely.

As of this writing, Steele is far and away the top leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool. He is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 14.7% of the time, but only 4.8% of lineups expected to roster him.

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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack

Marlins-Dodgers: Marlins

Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 4.9%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 12.4%

The thought of stacking the Marlins against Walker Buehler makes me want to reimagine my life’s decisions. That being said, everybody looks at this spot and feels the same way, which ultimately makes the Marlins the top contrarian stack to target on DraftKings. Though Buehler is a very talented pitcher, there is something to be said for the fact that he hasn’t pitched in a major league game in almost two years. After he had Tommy John surgery, it’s reasonable to expect some hiccups as Buehler works his way back from such a long absence. He couldn’t ask for a better spot in his return than at home against the Marlins. However, this is still the first time he will be facing major league hitters in quite some time.

This Marlins play is more against Buehler and his ownership than it is on the Marlins themselves. This wouldn’t be the first time a pitcher returned not looking like his former self, and while the Marlins aren’t good, they still have plenty of upside if the pitcher they are facing doesn’t have it. With Buehler projected to be 25.8% owned, Miami also offers a ton of leverage against that ownership on DraftKings. Like pretty much every low-projected stack on the board, the chance of Miami taking the cake tonight is pretty slim. But when they do, it’s relatively smooth sailing to the top of tournaments, especially with so many people rostering Buehler.

As ugly as it is, Miami is currently the top contrarian stack on DraftKings. The Marlins are projected to be the top stack 4.9% of the time this slate plays out, and only 4.2% of lineups are projected to stack them. Plus, that doesn’t even account for the leverage against Buehler.

Stokastic runs over some of the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for daily fantasy baseball lineups like one...

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Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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