NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Stakes Are High w/ Game 7 (May 5)

Sunday wraps up the first round of the NBA Playoffs with a Game 7 matchup tipping off at 1:00 p.m. ET lock on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Donovan Mitchell and Paolo Banchero, along with a variety of secondary players as premium targets.

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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Sunday, May 5

NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks

Donovan Mitchell: Cavaliers vs. Magic

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 47.45 | FanDuel: 46.97
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 72.6% | FanDuel: 57.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings $11,600 | FanDuel: $15,500

Sunday brings a second consecutive day of single-game DFS action. The popular plays will see heavy concentration, but as we saw Saturday night, the top lineups actually did not even need Nikola Jokic, who had a good, but not splendiferous showing against the Timberwolves as the Nuggets lost in Denver.

Jarrett Allen (ribs) is questionable after missing the last two games, as is Gary Harris (hamstring), who sat on Friday.

Donovan Mitchell was sublime in Game 6, but even a 50-point performance was not enough to will the Cavaliers to victory in Orlando. Mitchell was 22 of 36 (61.1%) from the field, contributing four rebounds, four assists and a block to round out his stat line. The 27-year-old stepped up in both games without Allen, so it makes sense that he will take a hit if the center is able to return to action. The projections listed above are inclusive of Allen playing around 35 minutes, so these will, of course, change if the big man is not able to take the court.

Darius Garland and Evan Mobley also are impacted by the presence of Allen, who has averaged 31.8 minutes, 9.3 field goal attempts, 17.0 points and 13.8 rebounds in his three healthy games. Each would move from neutral options to borderline core plays if Allen were out.

Max Strus is likely to see his typical half a dozen 3-point attempts but otherwise have a mostly empty box score despite playing 35-plus minutes. Marcus Morris Sr. joined the first five on Friday, replacing Isaac Okoro, who got the nod on Tuesday when Allen missed his first game. If Allen is back, this duo is likely to slide back to just a dozen minutes of run, along with Caris LeVert, who has had a poor opening series. It will also take Tristan Thompson out of play, though he is a desperation punt at best, even under the rosiest of circumstances.

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Paolo Banchero: Magic at Cavaliers

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 42.5 | FanDuel: 40.34
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 54.6% | FanDuel: 49.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,200 | FanDuel: $15,000

Paolo Banchero gets the slightest of nods over Franz Wagner, who is $1,000 cheaper on DraftKings and receiving a $1,500 discount on FanDuel. This duo can be played together as well since they are the most likely to score 20-plus points and record double-digit combined rebounds and assists.

If Harris returns, he should be in line for around 20 minutes, but if he is not in the starting lineup, be skeptical of him actually stepping on the court.

Wendell Carter Jr. is a solid option as he is expected to remain in the starting lineup, but it is important to remember that his lack of blocks and steals hurts him in the FanDuel scoring format. Yes, he has collected four blocks and a pair of steals in the last two games, but he had zero, zip, nada, zilch of either in the first four games of the series.

Jonathan Isaac is a fine salary saver as he is not really impacted by the availability of Harris. Jalen Suggs is the third offensive option, but he has a precarious role if he is not putting the biscuit in the basket, as coach Jamahl Mosley can always turn to the likes of Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony and veteran Joe Ingles for extra offense and as secondary facilitators.

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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

Paolo Banchero is a core play tonight in the DFS world, but we can also look to exploit the under on his 24.5 points prop. This is currently available on DraftKings at +110, with various sites providing a myriad of offerings at under 25.5 and 24.5 points.

By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.

Looking at the true odds of -107 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), there is an acceptable 3.6%% expected ROI, or taking the -115 for under 25.5 points on Unibet (not pictured) will garner a 4.3% expected ROI.

NBA Bet Pro has Banchero projected for 40.6 minutes and 23.18 points. That is under the milestone; however, it does not account for variable outcomes, which can be semi-quantified by the 52% win rate for the under. Getting this wager at good number is paramount to sustained success.

Through the first six games of this series, Banchero has averaged 36.7 minutes, 20.2 field goal attempts and 25.2 points. He has more than 25 points in three games, one of 24 and his other two saw him tally 21 and 9 points. This is going to be a defensive battle, and while he will have the ball in his hands on most possessions, scoring 25-plus in this matchup is not going to be easy.

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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Get all the latest news and updates for NBA DFS picks today on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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