MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Luis Castillo Coming in Under Owned (April 2)

We’re back with a nine-game MLB night slate that locks at 7:10 p.m. ET. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.

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MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today | April 2

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MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher

Guardians-Mariners: Luis Castillo

Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 22.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400

It’s rare to see the top overall pitcher in Stokastic’s tools also come in with leverage, but Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo fits that bill tonight on DraftKings at $9,400. Although he struggled on Opening Day against the Red Sox, Castillo is undoubtedly one of the top pitchers in the American League, and it’s logical to think he will bounce back in a much softer spot against the Guardians.

After a spring that saw him post a 2-1 record, 2.95 ERA, 22 strikeouts and six walks across 18.1 innings, there is little reason to be concerned about Castillo’s lackluster performance on Opening Day. He still worked up to 91 pitches in his season debut and averaged 95.8 mph on his fastball, so it seems he’s in great form despite the rough outing. While a matchup with Cleveland isn’t the best spot on paper considering the Guardians’ propensity not to strike out, Castillo’s strikeout upside is matchup-proof. His floor is also higher than it normally would be, as Cleveland lacks power up and down its lineup.

Castillo is currently projected to be a top-2 pitcher a whopping 22.5% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings but is only projected to be in 15.0% of lineups. While these numbers might slightly change as lineups come out, Castillo is arguably the top tournament arm on the slate.

MLB DFS High-Priced Contrarian Stack

Yankees-Diamondbacks: Yankees

Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 8.6%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 4.3%

Coming off a night in which the Yankees disappointed as chalk, we will go right back to the Pinstripes as the top high-priced contrarian stack tonight on DraftKings. While picking on Diamondbacks starter Zac Gallen is usually a fool’s errand, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and company can never be ignored.

Truth be told, I like both sides of this matchup. The Yankees are clearly a high-upside stack in tournaments, but Gallen himself is pretty much always in play for me. Tonight is no exception, as Gallen has elite strikeout upside every time he toes the rubber.

All that being said, the Yankees unquestionably standout as an elite tournament option with price tags the field is having a hard time prioritizing. Although there’s definitely some opportunity cost in rostering any team against such a good pitcher, the Yankees’ homerun upside separates them from the field.

As of this writing, the Yankees are projected to be the top stack 8.6% of the time this slate plays out, but only 6.8% of the field is projected to stack them.

Stokastic runs over some of the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for daily fantasy baseball lineups like one...

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MLB DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Stack

Braves-White Sox: White Sox

Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 3.0%
Stokastic’s Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 7.5%

Similar to the Yankees-Gallen dynamic, I also have interest in both Reynaldo Lopez and the White Sox offense going up against him. Lopez is in play simply because he is matched up with said White Sox, while Chicago looks good facing a pitcher in Lopez who has been far from consistent. For the sake of this article, however, the focus will be on Chicago’s bats, and the White Sox currently stand out as the top cheap contrarian stack on the board.

Regardless of your opinion on the White Sox, they are projected to be the top stack 3.0% of the time this slate happens. Making them even more appealing, they are projected to be the top value stack 7.5% of the time on this slate.

The inconsistent Lopez is also projected to pick up ownership, and the White Sox are an easy way to get over the field in large-field tournaments.

Want more MLB action? Check out these MLB player props & home run picks.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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