We’re back with another seven-game MLB slate main slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wednesday, April 24
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Mariners-Rangers: Bryce Miller
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 14.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400
As a wise man once said, ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it’, and after Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert came up aces for us last night, we will go right back to another Mariners starter and target Bryce Miller as the top contrarian pitcher on DraftKings. Although Miller doesn’t carry quite the same pedigree that Gilbert does, he’s been fantastic to start the season, and the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate they should be on DraftKings. While a matchup with Texas is playing into his low ownership, Miller has as high of an upside as any pitcher toeing the rubber tonight.
Although picking on Texas is more often than not a fool’s errand, Miller has elite stuff, and he’s being misrepresented in a big way. Coming off a dominant outing against the Reds in which he pitched six innings, allowed one earned run on one hit and one walk while striking out seven, Miller is arguably in the best form of any pitcher on Seattle’s loaded staff. Considering pitchers like Reynaldo Lopez and Clarke Schmidt are projected to be two of the highest owned arms on the slate, there’s plenty to like about pivoting to a more talented Miller at a fraction of the ownership.
As of this writing, Miller is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 14.1% of the time this slate plays out. With only 3.2% of lineups expected to roster him, it makes sense why Miller looks so good from a leverage perspective.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Padres-Rockies: Rockies
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 9.6%
Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 4.1%
With only seven games on tonight’s docket, ownership on stacks is pretty concentrated with teams like the Padres and Blue Jays projected to get the majority of love. While there will likely be plenty of contrarian stacks to choose from on this slate, the Rockies once again stand out as the overall top offense to differentiate in tournaments. Although rostering the Rockies in 2024 can often times be a fruitless endeavor, the path to the top of GPP’s is a relatively easy one if they end up as the top stack.
Despite the Rockies’ enviable matchup with knuckleballer Matt Waldron, the field has very little interest in prioritizing the Rockies as a stack. With teams like the Padres and Blue Jays much cheaper as a whole, Colorado is getting squeezed out in a big way on DraftKings. Although the Rockies don’t offer the double leverage they have the previous two slates facing popular pitchers in Dylan Cease and Michael King, they’re in a much better spot against a middling pitcher in Waldron, and the field still isn’t getting to them.
While there’s opportunity cost in rostering the Rockies over one of the other top stacks on the board, Colorado’s upside against Waldron is undeniable, and it is coming in drastically underowned. The Rockies are projected to be the top stack 9.6% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 7.1% of the field expected to stack them, Colorado looks like the best tournament stack on the slate.
