Wednesday brings a frontloaded 10-game MLB main slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before you build lineups, several Stokastic tools can help identify daily MLB DFS Top Stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Let’s dig into the player projections and popularity for DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo lineups, including RHPs Corbin Burnes and Jon Gray and the Angels offense hosting Jameson Taillon.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Corbin Burnes vs. Baltimore Orioles — 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,200 | FanDuel $10,000 | Yahoo $44
The early action has some of the better pitching matchups, with RHP Zack Wheeler facing Detroit and RHP Edward Cabrera squaring off against Kansas City. Of course, we are all using the same player pool, so let’s see what hand we have been dealt at the top.
Giving RHP Corbin Burnes a mulligan for his first two starts and focusing on the last 10 help frame the results of a pitcher just two seasons removed from winning the National League Cy Young Award. Across 60.1 innings in these starts, Burnes has a 2.83 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and 60 strikeouts. The 4.61 FIP does indicate he has been somewhat lucky, but with his strikeout rate ticking up, that figure is likely to slide back under 4.00 based on past history.
Over the last season-plus, the Orioles have been perfectly average against right-handed pitching, with a 101 wRC+ and 22.0% strikeout rate, while their .161 ISO falls just outside the top 10 in the league. Burnes is shaping up to be one of the more popular hurlers tonight, though if he can navigate switch-hitters Anthony Santander and Adley Rutschman as well as lefty Gunnar Henderson, he should find success against the likes of Aaron Hicks, Adam Frazier and Josh Lester.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Jon Gray vs. St. Louis Cardinals — 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,900 | FanDuel $9,500 | Yahoo $47
It is never fun to tangle with the St. Louis Cardinals, particularly now that they have added several effective left-handed hitters. Strikeouts are not really part of the portfolio when rostering RHP Jon Gray, but he does a good job limiting runs and his 2.51 ERA currently is the eighth best among all qualified starters. In his 11 starts this season, Gray has allowed two or fewer runs eight times, with just 10 total runs in the other trio of tilts.
While we will not be a rush to roster Gray, comparing him to the other options such as RHP Lance Lynn taking on the Yankees in smoky New York City or RHPs Max Scherzer and Charlie Morton squaring off against their respective juggernaut offenses, one can see the appeal of Gray.
Late Slate Pitching Target: RHP Logan Webb at Colorado Rockies — 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,900 | FanDuel $11,000 | Yahoo $50
Wednesday’s salary for RHP Logan Webb is going to have him wildly underrepresented in main-slate tournaments. Heck, for the late slate that is doing battle directly with Game 3 of the NBA Finals, it would not be a surprise for most gamers to just skip it outright. Of course, if you are reading this article, you are not “most gamers” and fall into the savvy category of DFS aficionados who love the puzzle.
The current collection of Colorado hitters is not particularly effective against right-handed pitching, even at Coors Field. Since the start of last season, the Rockies have a solid .165 ISO at home, with a decent 20.3% strikeout rate. However, they have still struggled to score runs efficiently and have an 89 wRC+, and while they still get there on volume, they are not as daunting a line for some pitching mixes. Webb actually has been decent in Coors Field, with a 3-1 record in six starts, accompanied by a 4.59 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 31 strikeouts in 33.1 innings. The 26-year-old mostly relies on a fastball (41%, 92.6 mph) and changeup (29%, 86.5 mph) while working in his slider 29% of the time. This and a solid 58.8% ground ball rate allow him to be relatively effective in the thin Denver air.
Does this mean we need to force him into lineups? No, not at today’s salary — but it does indicate that the Rockies may have a tough row to hoe, and on the two-game late-slate, Webb is a fine choice for those savage enough to traverse that treacherous landscape.
Early Slate Pitching Target: RHP Zack Wheeler vs. RHP Detroit Tigers — 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:05 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,700 | FanDuel $10,800 | Yahoo $48
Even though RHP Zack Wheeler is coming off a rough start against Washington in which he allowed seven earned runs, this is a perfect bounce-back spot against the dilapidated Detroit offense. Last night struggling veteran RHP Taijuan Walker blanked the Tigers for seven innings and eight strikeouts before handing things over to the bullpen. Two relievers finished off the shutout in style with five combined whiffs, including the final four batters. Don’t think too hard on this one; roll out Wheeler (pun intended) and look for differentiation elsewhere.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks at LHP Patrick Corbin — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Just when it looked like LHP Patrick Corbin may have turned the corner on his home run issue, he allowed four over his last three starts. That gives him 75 since the beginning of 2021, which is the second most in the league. For those wondering, RHP Jordan Lyles (81) has the most, with LHP Yusei Kikuchi (67) coming in third.
Arizona has plenty of power from the right side of the plate, and Corbin has been saddled with a .370 wOBA and a .200 ISO in his last 812 opposite-handed matchups. Looking at the top of the order, switch-hitter Ketel Marte is a strong option, and he is all but assured of five plate appearances on the road.
Christian Walker is the crown jewel for a Diamondbacks stack (second pun intended) as well as in the sports wagering market. Looking at the new “True Odds” feature on OddsShopper, we can see that the +370 line for Walker to hit a home run is actually mispriced, with the MLB Bet Pro probability having this as a +348 line. That is like getting a 6% booster from the sportsbook without doing any extra work. Walker’s current form has been amazing this season, and he has produced a .419 wOBA and a .396 ISO in 62 righty-lefty matchups. This is no fluke since he has been improving for quite some time, and in 221 plate appearances against southpaws since the start of last year, he has tallied a .374 wOBA and a .277 ISO.
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Veteran Evan Longoria should be batting fifth with a lefty on the mound, and he can be had for a song on DraftKings ($2,800) and FanDuel ($2,700). Gabriel Moreno is a cheapy who can fulfill the catcher requirement on DraftKings and Yahoo, while Emmanuel Rivera looks promising at the hot corner and could bat as high as second. Rivera has hits in eight of his last nine games, including four multi-hit efforts. Enjoy!
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Angels vs. RHP Jameson Taillon — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Congratulations to RHP Jameson Taillon, who managed to clear the fifth inning for the first time all season while holding the Padres to just one run in San Diego. That valiant effort lowered his ERA by a full run to … wait, is this real? … why, yes it is — he still has a 7.05 ERA and did not close the book on the fifth inning in any of his five May starts?!
The Stokastic Top Stacks tool has identified the Angels as a strong option to counter the Coors Field Extravaganza. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout, of course, are matchup-proof, but they can be joined by Hunter Renfroe and Brandon Drury, who both have light-tower power against fellow righties. Anthony Rendon is a wild card, as he has been hurt for the better part of three seasons, but he is available and could land in the cleanup slot. The former National is arguably the most disciplined hitter for Anaheim, as he has the highest walk rate and lowest strikeout numbers over the last two seasons.
Early Slate Target: Miami Marlins vs. RHP Jordan Lyles — 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:10 p.m. ET
Gamers are going to focus on the Phillies boppers for the early slate, but do not lose sight of the Marlins, who have a great matchup and have been producing this season. Of course, the Marlins are far from being world beaters, but the matchup against home run facilitator RHP Jordan Lyles is favorable. The top half of the order is strong, with Luis Arraez leading the league by nearly by nearly 70 points with his .401 average.
Veterans Jorge Soler, Bryan De La Cruz, Garrett Cooper and Jesus Sanchez have just enough pop to make things interesting. While the bottom of the order is below average, Joey Wendle and Jean Segura are not easy outs, and they can help burn a pitch count. Kansas City has an average bullpen, but it has had a heavy workload over the last five days.
Final Thoughts for Wednesday, June 7 | MLB DFS Picks
It looks like there could be a little weather in Colorado, though the coverage area at this time is still cloudy (third pun FTW!).
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