Wednesday marks the middle of the week with a five-game featured slate locking at 6:45 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS top stacks, key pitchers and MLB DFS picks. Look to Tyler Glasnow and Cristian Javier as today’s aces, with a mix of hitters throughout the slate.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 3
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Tyler Glasnow vs. San Francisco Giants — 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,800 | FanDuel $10,000 | Yahoo $51
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Tyler Glasnow as the dominate top option on the five-game slate and that is even before taking into account the very real possibility that this five-game slate, could lose three matchups. When healthy, which has been a career long issue for Glasnow, the now 30-year-old hurler is everything a DFS gamer could hope for. Sadly last year his 21 starts and 120 innings pitched both represented career-highs.
Since the Dodgers participated in the Seoul Series, this will be the third start for Glasnow. He should continue to ramp up his strikeout ratios to something approaching 11 per nine innings, which is a “floor” when compared to his last five seasons. The projected lineup for San Francisco poste a collective 27.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching last season, while Glasnow was sublime with a tick over 33% against batters swinging the stick from both sides of the plate.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Cristian Javier vs. Toronto Blue Jays — 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,800 | FanDuel $10,200 | Yahoo $51
One day after being no-hit, the Toronto Blue Jays collected eight base knocks, including a crucial two-run round-tripper from Davis Schneider in the ninth inning, to secure a 2-1 victory in Houston. LHP Framber Valdez scattered six hits across 7.2 scoreless innings, with five strikeouts. Reliever Josh Hader had the ignominious luck in not being able to close out a 1-0 victory.
Tonight the Jays will see RHP Cristian Javier, who will be a stark contrast when compared to his lefty-counterpart. After a sterling 3.90 FIP, 1.035 WHIP and 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings in his first 304.1 career innings spread across three seasons, both as a reliever and a starter, Javier scuffled somewhat last year. He did make 31 starts, but ended up with a 4.58 FIP, which was in line with his 4.56 ERA, while dipping to just under a strikeout per inning. He is in his age-27 season, so should see a bounce back in his results.
Toronto is better set up to take on southpaws, as they have just three regular hitters from the left side. Daulton Varsho had a slow transition from the Diamondbacks to the Blue Jays last year, but he looked better as the season wore on. Veteran journeyman Kevin Kiermaier and baseball legacy Cavan Biggio are essentially replacement level hitters, so this is a great matchup for Javier. Of course the more games that are lost due to weather, the more popular he will become.
When looking for some differentiation, if the weather gets the better of a couple matchups, rostering Varsho in the same lineup where you have Javier, well it would be something very few gamers attempt.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros vs. RHP Chris Bassitt — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool would have us on the Pittsburgh Pirates against the RHP Trevor Williams if the game plays in Washington. However, with the history of how this franchise tends to botch weather calls, that is a terrifying situation to count on. Of course, fortune favors the bold and on a slate as fraught with precipitation risk as this one, things could pay off handsomely if everything comes together. One way to measure risk tolerance is to consider how angry the Mets postponing last night’s game right as a two-hour window was opening in the forecast. Let that be your guide on how you handle decisions tonight. For those taking this path, Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Rowdy Tellez and Oneil Cruz would be the primary targets.
Through their first 225 plate appearances, the Astros have a 136 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes various factors such as ballpark and defense, to create a league-wide scoring efficiency baseline of 100), indicating they are producing runs 36% more efficiently than league average. While it is obviously early in the season, the Houston lineup is mostly the same and last year they boasted a top-five offense in this metric.
RHP Chris Bassitt suppressed power from same-handed hitters last season, allowing a paltry .103 ISO across 423 batters faced. Lefties got to him for a .240 ISO, so the priority targets are Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. Even though Bassitt is 35-years-old, he would still be a top-three starter on just about every team in the league and frankly he is comparable to about half of the opening day starters in the league.
If this slate is trimmed down to just a couple games, actually rostering Bassitt and taking Tucker and Alvarez against him in the same lineups, well it would not be the most insane strategy.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LHP Kyle Harrison — 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Everyone is going to want to roster the Dodgers, which makes sense considering the team boasts a trio of former MVPs at the top of the order, adding Shohei Ohtani to what was already one of the best offenses in the league. The fear is that with the weather likely to impact the number of available options, the obvious teams and pitchers are going to be over-represented in tournaments. That does not mean we need to shy away from the Dodgers, though differentiation is best found by looking to Teoscar Hernandez (phenomenal against southpaws), along with Chris Taylor and Kike Hernandez who should be in the lineup as well. This trio should be mostly adjacent in the latter half of the order, and far less popular than their award-winning teammates.
LHP Kyle Harrison was the top prospect in the San Francisco minor league system, but he only has 40.2 innings in The Show. He possesses strikeout upside, but like most young lefties, he also was hit hard, with 2.21 home runs allowed per nine innings in this limited body of work. The other positive, is that he has limited walks, though he does not get many ground balls (25.2%), which makes him a risk against the Dodgers. Other than pure contrarian strategy, it is harder to recommend a dalliance with him against Los Angeles, than it is to take Bassitt against Houston.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Tonight we can look to Kevin Keirmaier in the sports wagering market with his +1000 prop to hit a home run. The True Odds feature on OddsShopper shows this bet has +914 “true odds,” and the +1000 line currently available at FanDuel provides a lofty 8.5% expected return on investment (ROI).
While home run wagers are fun, they are long shots and one nice feature that OddsShopper provides is customized wager amounts, based on a specific bankroll. For a bet like Kiermaier to hit a dinger, the recommended wager is $3 of a $1,000 bank role. This takes into account that we are looking at a very long time horizon to realize the elevated ROI% of 8.5%. Still, looking at FanDuel, we can see that it far outpaces most books which are offering this opportunity at +700.
Though looking at BvP (batter versus pitcher) results is a miniscule sample size that rarely provides actionable information, it is good to see Kiermaier is 3 for 4 in his career against Javier, though each hit was a single. For his career lefties have 33 of the 69 home runs ceded by Javier, though they also have a lower strikeout rate and more overall extra-base hits than right-handed batsmen. Sprinkle a little something on this wager for entertainment, as there will be plenty of time for more secure action throughout the season.
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Final Thoughts for Wednesday, April 3 — MLB DFS Picks
Rain is the major variable today, with the Midwest and East Coast all being impacted with a major storm system that could last into the weekend as it moves across the country. For the featured slate, Chicago, New York and Washington all have elevated risk of delays and even postponements.
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