MLB DFS Contrarian Stacks Today: Stack Against Tyler Glasnow? (April 3)

We’re back with a five-game MLB slate main slate that locks at 6:45 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.

One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.

MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Wednesday, April 3 (Main Slate)

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MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher

Blue Jays-Astros: Chris Bassitt

Stokastic’s Top Two Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 17.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,600

With weather concerns clouding almost the entire slate, the pitching option tonight leave a lot to be desired. Amongst the chaos, however, stands Chris Bassitt, and the Blue Jays right-hander is the top contrarian pitcher on DraftKings at $8,600. Bassitt was mediocre in his season debut in Tampa against the Rays, and in an even tougher spot tonight against the Astros in Houston, the field has no interest in building around him in DFS.

Although picking on the Astros is more often than not a fools errand, good luck finding a ‘safe’ pitcher on tonight’s slate outside of Tyler Glasnow. Bassitt was far from great against the Rays last week, but he still worked up to 95 pitches (63 strikes) and generated an impressive 31 called or swinging strikes. While Bassitt would probably be a low priority option on a slate with more games, he’s the pitcher falling through the cracks the most on DraftKings despite question marks surrounding every arm on the slate.

As of this writing, Bassitt is far and away the highest-graded leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s tools. Currently projected to be a top-two pitcher 17.8% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, Bassitt is only projected to be in 10% of lineups. While these numbers might slightly change as lineups come out, Bassitt is undoubtedly one of the top tournament options despite the tough matchup.

MLB DFS Contrarian Stack

Giants-Dodgers: Giants

Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 6.8%

Top Value Projection
DraftKings: 10.1%

What was once a five-game slate has now been turned into a four-game slate, as the Tigers-Mets have been postponed for the second time in as many days. With only eight total offenses in play tonight, contrarian options are few and far between. Matched up with the highest owned pitcher on the slate, however, the Giants stand out as the top differentiator stack on the board.

Although stacking against a pitcher like Glasnow is never advised, there’s a lot of game theory that goes into a four-game MLB slate. While Glasnow is projected to be the top pitcher on the slate, he’s also projected to be substantially over owned, simply because there aren’t many good pivots. San Francisco’s offense, while not in the same stratosphere as teams like the Braves or Dodgers, is competent in its own right and offers a fair amount of power upside in any matchup. When stacking a team like the Giants against a pitcher like Glasnow, you know that it’s most likely not going to work out. When it does, however, the leverage is massive.

While their floor might be lower than other stacks in their price range due to a matchup with Glasnow, the Giants are the clear top contrarian stack on DraftKings.. As of this writing, San Francisco is projected to be the top stack 6.8% of the time this slate plays out, and only 5.8% of the field is projected to stack them. Those numbers don’t even account for the leverage against Glasnow, which matters a ton on a slate this small.

Stokastic runs over some of the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for daily fantasy baseball lineups like one...

Looking for a way to boost your MLB DFS success? Check out our MLB DFS Sims Tools! Our simulation tools have helped numerous pros and users win big in DraftKings and FanDuel DFS contests across several sports, and they can help you too! Don’t believe us? Read up on the Stokastic Hall of Fame and see for yourself.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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