Saturday brings two waves of games, with the largest contests culminating around a six-game featured-slate locking at 7:15 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Tanner Bibee and Aaron Nola as the key arms to build around, while the Dodgers and Diamondbacks are the teams to target for stacks.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 25
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE at LAA)
Guardians at Angels – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
$8,800 at DraftKings
$8,100 at FanDuel
$44 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool likes this matchup for RHP Tanner Bibee tonight against the Angels in Anaheim, where the “marine layer” should come into play with game time temperatures in the low-60s. This turns the Halos home park into a pitching friendly venue, compared to warmer afternoon games.
Los Angeles has scored more than four runs only seven times in the last 14 games, and the team clearly is missing Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Brandon Drury and, of course, Shohei Ohtani. Shortstop Zach Neto is also dinged up with a sore right elbow, but there is a chance he will play this weekend.
In a fun twist, RHP Tanner Bibee had his worst start of the season against the Angels, three weeks ago, allowing six earned runs and a pair of longballs. In his last six outings, Bibee has held the opposition to just two runs or less six times.
After a strong rookie season, Bibee has increased his strikeout rate to 9.57 per nine innings while keeping most other metrics respectable. It looks like he could potentially become a frontline starter, but at a minimum, the 25-year-old looks like he would be a No. 3 starter in most rotations across the league.
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Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Aaron Nola (PHI at COL)
Phillies at Rockies – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:10 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$10,300 at FanDuel
$53 at Yahoo
The holiday weekend has a frontloaded Saturday schedule, which thins out the pitching options for the featured-slate action. We will not be alone in looking at RHP Aaron Nola in Coors Field, where the weather is on the cooler side with game-time temperatures in the low-to-mid-50s.
Nola has made five career starts in Coors Field, though it is hard to infer too much, as the first was back in 2017. In his three most recent starts, he has closed out the seventh inning twice, allowing 10 earned runs in 19.1 innings. The strikeouts were a steady four per appearance, with one home run ceded in each outing. The 31-year-old has seen his strikeout rate per nine innings fall each of the last five years from 12.11, to 11.11, to 10.32, to 9.39, to this season’s 8.31, which is his lowest ratio since his rookie campaign.
There is no discount on his salary tonight, so gamers can turn to RHP Dylan Cease in San Diego taking on the New York Yankees for a few dollars more or drop down to a struggling LHP Jordan Montgomery for significant savings.
The hope with Nola is that he doesn’t implode, which is far from a ringing endorsement. Depending on where his popularity lands, he could be an overleveraged trap — which makes the alternative options more appealing. The most realistically attainable upside case for Nola tonight would be a quality start with half a dozen strikeouts and a win.
Early Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Logan Gilbert (SEA at WSH)
Mariners at Nationals – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
$9,200 at DraftKings
$10,400 at FanDuel
$43 at Yahoo
The Nationals were not very hospitable last night, hanging five earned runs on RHP George Kirby and tagging former Washington pitcher RHP Austin Voth with a sixth. That is just a reminder that even bad offenses can put something together every now and then against good pitching. In the 11 preceding games, the Nats plated two or fewer runs seven times, with three donuts.
Over the last three games, RHP Logan Gilbert has allowed 14 earned runs, but he has ceded only nine more in his seven other games. Through his 10 starts, he has posted personal highs with a 3.20 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. The poor backing from his teammates has led to a 3-2 record, which is why wins are such a fickle category and not indicative of anything in particular for pitchers. Gilbert does have eight quality starts and should be able to keep his team in the mix for a victory this afternoon, while also making his DFS backers happy.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers at Reds – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Hunter Greene
DK Top Stack %: 12.2%
FD Top Stack %: 12.5%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool agrees with the conventional wisdom that taking the Phillies in Coors Field against RHP Dakota Hudson is the likely path to fantasy production. However, it is not the only favorable spot, as there is warm weather and mediocre pitching in Chicago, as well as an intriguing matchup for the Los Angeles Dodgers in Cincinnati.
Dodgers’ stacks were adequate last night, but not enough to really be difference-makers. There is a big difference between RHPs Graham Ashcraft and Hunter Greene, but we know the latter will pound the strike zone, a strategy fraught with peril against the boys in blue. Greene’s last start was in Los Angeles, where he held the Dodgers to just two runs, with six strikeouts across 6.1 innings. The 24-year-old handed out a pair of free passes, while also giving up a round-tripper to Andy Pages for the only extra-base hit of the game.
The short turnaround time since last seeing Greene does play into the hands of the Dodgers, and it is hard to think their trio of MVPs at the top of the lineup will be blanked again. Look to the usual suspects of Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, with catcher Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez the obvious candidates for a full-stack. This is a spendy proposition, so Gavin Lux brings salary relief and a boost in the batting order with Max Muncy out. Pages is a cheaper outfield option who can also help average down the salary cap impact of this stack.
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Late Slate Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins – 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Sixto Sanchez
DK Top Stack %: 8.1%
FD Top Stack %: 8.3%
Ugh, that did not go as planned: the Diamondbacks were blanked by LHP Braxton Garrett for a complete game shutout on just 95 pitches last night. Though the team has been in the bottom third of the league against right-handed pitching, the matchup against RHP Sixto Sanchez is too good to ignore. The Chase Field roof is scheduled to be open tonight, which is favorable for the offense.
In his last three starts, Sanchez has closed out the fourth inning of each for a total of 12.1 frames. In these games, he has allowed nine runs, though three were unearned, with seven walks and six strikeouts. To his credit, the only extra-base hits were a pair of doubles in the last game, but one strikeout every other inning, with just over one free pass at the same pace is a recipe for disaster.
The active roster for Arizona does have a 95 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which means the team is creating runs 5% less efficiently than the league average. The production is concentrated with Christian Walker and Joc Pederson, who have had strong seasons. Switch-hitter Ketel Marte continues to chug along near the top of the order and leadoff man and last year’s National League Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll is slowly showing signs that he is breaking out of his season-long slump. The Miami bullpen is well-rested, with only closer Tanner Scott seeing action since Tuesday.
For the featured slate, targeting two or three D’Backs is the best strategy while focusing on another “main” stack. For the late slate, gamers will be flocking to the Coors Field Extravaganza, which does make a four-man Arizona stack quite contrarian.
Early Slate Target: Seattle Mariners
Mariners at Nationals – 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Trevor Williams
DK Top Stack %: 6.5%
FD Top Stack %: 6.3%
The madness has to stop at some point, and the real Trevor Williams will show up to the game. Last year, the 32-year-old righty allowed 34 home runs, fourth-most in the league. This season his 2.35 ERA is half of what it was last year and a full two runs better than his career production. He also is allowing three fewer base runners per nine innings than his usual rate, and, at some point, he is going to have to pay the piper.
The biggest change for Williams this season is that he has nearly doubled up on the frequency of his slider as compared to his last two campaigns. He has all but abandoned his curveball and pulled the rest of the pitch allocation from his mediocre 89 mph fastball. While Seattle strikes out a lot, Williams does not generate many swings and misses, which should play favorably into the strengths of the Seattle power hitters.
The Mariners are tied for ninth with 58 home runs, but they are also last with 58 doubles. Though Nationals Park is just above league average for offense, typically driven by the warm summer months, it is light years more hitter-friendly than T-Mobile Park. The return of J.P. Crawford makes a big difference as does having a healthy Dominic Canzone.
Luke Raley should also see a prominent spot in the order, to give him more looks with the platoon advantage over Williams. While these players are not household names, they are the foundation of the M’s offense, which makes Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh look good. It’s a luxury having Jorge Polanco and Ty France near the bottom of the order, leaving no weak spots in the lineup. Focus on the first four hitters, plus Canzone, in this DFS-friendly matchup.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
It is rare to get an over that is highlighted by OddsShopper, since the sportsbooks prefer to play on the inherent exuberance of rooting for overs, the best value typically resides with unders when it comes to player props.
This afternoon, Kyle Tucker is in Oakland, facing LHP JP Sears with a +145 on his over 1.5 total bases prop. This wager is currently available on bet365 where new players in the US can Bet $5 and Get $150 in Bet Credits or a $1,000 First Bet Safety Net! Click here for details.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +126 “true odds,” so the +145 line brings an enticing 8.5% expected ROI. We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with several books as low as +100. Be a savvy shopper!
Tucker projects for 1.71 total bases today and while that is shy of the two needed for the over on this wager, we can see it still should come to fruition 44% of the time.
In 14 career at-bats against Sears, Tucker has four hits, including two home runs and a double, with just one strikeout. That is a small sample size, and while it does not provide any actionable information, it is good to know that Tucky is usually putting the ball in play against Sears. The season in 79 same-handed matchups, Tucker has an absurd .414 wOBA and a .308 ISO, striking out 17.7% of the time with a 17.7% walk rate. Walks do not count towards total bases, but they do reinforce Tucker’s tremendous production is no fluke.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Saturday, May 25
The weather looks like it will be cooperating today, though it is always good to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 12:00 p.m. ET brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
