With DraftKings having two roster spots for pitchers, it creates an opportunity to take a stand in a limited player pool. To play it safe, the majority of users like to roster the chalkiest pitchers in hopes of their bats being the main focal point of their lineup. While in theory it is a great strategy, it limits a lineup’s ability to stand out from the rest and ultimately land in the top 5 of a large-field GPP. That’s why we need MLB DFS pivots.
The goal in this breakdown is to find which pitchers can give lineups the opportunity to return massive ROI while being undrowned across the field. Using Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, we are able to determine the pitchers that are expected to be chalk, along with the pitchers that are projected for high leverage in contests. The correlation of high leverage but low ownership is a crucial piece to unlocking a lineup’s potential.
Let’s dive into which pitchers stand out in both of these categories to find the best MLB DFS pivots for tonight.
Best MLB DFS Pivots Today: Dylan Cease & More (April 16)
Jared Jones ($8,500)
Now, Jones doesn’t quite match our standards when looking for a pivot due to his ownership projection being 18%, but Lance Lynn is $8,400 and projecting for 31% ownership, close to double the ownership of Jones. In his first three starts in the majors, Jones has managed to record a 34.7% strikeout rate and only a 2.4% walk rate, giving him a 31.9% strikeout-walk percentage — ninth highest among starting pitchers. Though the Mets aren’t a high strikeout percentage team, Jones has managed seven-plus strikeouts in all three starts, with one of those coming against the Orioles, who are bottom 10 for strikeout percentage.
This game currently has the second-lowest over/under on the slate at 7.5 with juice on the under. That could be a result of good pitching weather tonight, with wind gusts of 15 mph blowing in from center field causing a negative home run rate. The Mets offense has come alive as of recently, but Jones has undeniable strikeout stuff, and if he can give up two runs or fewer, he could put up 25-plus DraftKings points at 50% the ownership of Lynn.
Dylan Cease ($10,700)
Despite having a 20% chance of being a top-2 pitcher, second highest in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, Cease is only projected for 11% ownership, making him the third-highest-leverage pitcher at 8.7%. What are the reasons for this? For one, he is the highest-priced pitcher by a mile at $10,700, with the next closest being a $9,500 Logan Gilbert. Secondly, his matchup against the Brewers is a risky one, with the Brewers averaging 7.2 runs per game in their last five and a strikeout percentage of only 21.4%, 10th lowest in the league.
Now that we have the negatives out of the way, Cease has been impressive in his new stripes, posting a 2.16 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP and a strikeout percentage of 30.3%, 16th highest among starting pitchers with at least 10 innings. His last outing was the most impressive of his Padres career, recording seven strikeouts and allowing only two hits in six innings for 29.1 DraftKings points. With pitcher ownership being dominated by Gilbert at 31.7% and a $9,000 Hunter Greene at 33.2%, grabbing Cease at 11% ownership can create a massive amount of leverage if one of those two pitchers flops tonight.
Get started finding the best MLB DFS pivots by using Stokastic tools today! Check out all we have to offer here!
