MLB DFS Value: Lots of Good Bats in Orioles-Blue Jays (May 19)

The MLB DFS main slate for today is huge, presenting numerous value options for daily fantasy lineups. In this breakdown, we will analyze each game and pinpoint the players to target. Without further ado, here are some potential MLB DFS value picks for Friday, May 19.

MLB DFS Value and Advice | May 19

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Detroit Tigers (Boyd) at Washington Nationals (Irvin)

These are two less-than-stellar pitchers facing off against weak offenses. While it may not be the mwost enticing game to target, there are some interesting tournament opportunities. Both teams have cheap players projected for minimal ownership in favorable matchups. The Detroit Tigers rank third in the Top Stacks Tool but are only pulling 3% aggregate ownership. Similarly, the Washington Nationals rank ninth and have about 3% ownership. Matthew Boyd is owned by 8% of DFS players, while Jake Irvin has 4% ownership. While there may not be any standout options in this game, the low prices across the board make it likely that some low-owned, good value players will emerge.

Chicago Cubs (Stroman) at Philadelphia Phillies (Suarez)

In contrast to the Tigers game, this matchup features several good players. However, the matchups and prices are less than ideal. Ranger Suarez showed promise in his first start of the season, throwing 72 pitches. Given his affordable salary, he is likely to be a popular choice from this game.

Baltimore Orioles (Gibson) at Toronto Blue Jays (Kikuchi)

This game presents an opportunity to target the bats. Yusei Kikuchi has demonstrated solid strikeout abilities, but he struggles to limit power to both sides of the plate. The Orioles possess a potent offense, and playing outside of Camden Yards further enhances their power potential. On the other side, Kyle Gibson has been fortunate in limiting right-handed power this season, but facing a lineup of power-hitting righties in the Rogers Centre instead of Camden Yards poses a daunting challenge. Kikuchi is also drawing some ownership, which is understandable given the weak pitching options on this slate and his strikeout potential.

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Cleveland Guardians (Quantrill) at New York Mets (Carrasco)

The Mets bats stand out in this game. While Cal Quantrill is not terrible at limiting power, he doesn’t record many strikeouts. Nevertheless, the Mets lineup offers power upside and some value options such as Brett Baty at $3,100 and Jeff McNeil at $3,600, both likely to be in the Met’s top 5 hitters.

Seattle Mariners (Miller) at Atlanta Braves (Elder)

Bryce Miller has shown promise in his first three starts, boasting a strikeout rate of around 28%. However, two of those starts were against the Athletics and Tigers, and the Braves present a more formidable challenge. While rostering Miller at no ownership may seem appealing, his $9,400 price tag makes it difficult to execute. Bryce Elder, on the other hand, is attracting about 17% ownership on DraftKings at $9,200. He has been solid this season, with a 20.7% strikeout rate and a 3.56 FIP. Although the matchup is not ideal, his ownership is justifiable given the overall weakness of pitching options on this slate. The Braves face a tough test against a top pitching prospect in Miller, but their lineup still offers considerable upside given its strength and an implied run total of nearly 5.0.

Colorado Rockies (Kauffmann) at Texas Rangers (Perez)

Karl Kauffmann is making his major league debut and is expected to struggle. The Rangers have a hefty 5.8 implied run total, which is justified considering Kauffmann’s minor league numbers and his status as a non-top-30 prospect in the Rockies system at 25 years old. Perez is a popular choice as an SP2 given the favorable matchup. However, his 15% ownership is concerning, considering his 16.4% strikeout rate and 5.28 FIP this season.

Kansas City Royals (Greinke) at Chicago White Sox (Kopech)

This game presents a favorable opportunity to target two teams’ offenses. Both have advantageous matchups and offer relatively affordable options. While Michael Kopech has been effective at striking out left-handed hitters this season, he has also allowed a significant amount of power to them. Left-handed hitters like Vinnie Pasquantino, M.J. Melendez, and Nick Pratto could provide cheap sources of power. Additionally, Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez are solid options at their positions. On the other side, Zack Greinke has not been terrible at limiting power this season but hasn’t been outstanding either. Right-handed hitters have shown power potential against him. The White Sox lineup offers value, with Tim Anderson, Luis Robert and Yoan Moncada priced at $4,000 or less on DraftKings. Gavin Sheets is an excellent cheap option with home run potential.

Oakland Athletics (Waldichuk) at Houston Astros (Bielak)

Brandon Bielak is priced affordably as an SP2, making him an intriguing option. While he may not be as popular as some of the more expensive pitchers on the slate, he has a great matchup. In his limited time in the major leagues, Bielak has a 19.5% strikeout rate and a 5.26 FIP. Ken Waldichuk has demonstrated vulnerability to both right-handed and left-handed hitters in a limited sample size this season, making hitters like Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker appealing choices when stacking the Astros.

Los Angeles Dodgers (Gonsolin) at St. Louis Cardinals (Matz)

Steven Matz provides an inexpensive SP2 option, but he faces a tough matchup. Tony Gonsolin has been consistent in terms of pitch count, throwing at least 80 pitches in three straight starts and going six innings in one of those outings. However, his $8,900 price tag is difficult to justify given his expected limited innings.

Minnesota Twins (Ryan) at Los Angeles Angels (Detmers)

This matchup features two of the best pitchers on the slate. Joe Ryan has an impressive 29.7% strikeout rate and a 2.54 FIP, while Reid Detmers boasts a 26.3% strikeout rate and a 3.90 FIP this season. Although both offenses may not be ideal opponents, beggars can’t be choosers on this slate, and both pitchers offer strong potential. It may be worth considering low-owned options from both offenses in large-field tournaments given their power upside and the favorable hitting conditions.

Boston Red Sox (Paxton) at San Diego Padres (Snell)

Blake Snell is expected to be one of the most popular pitchers on this slate, priced at $8,500 on DraftKings. However, it’s important to acknowledge that he has struggled this season, with a 5.25 FIP and a strikeout rate of only 23.5%. While his strikeout numbers may improve going forward, concerns about his performance at high ownership are valid. James Paxton, on the other hand, is projected to have only 2% ownership, making him an intriguing option. While there are red flags surrounding many pitchers on this slate, Paxton’s uncertainty is also a positive. Prior to his injuries, he was considered a legitimate ace, and there is a chance that he could return to form. In his first start, he displayed a fastball velocity in line with his pre-injury numbers, averaging around 96 mph. While it is more likely that he doesn’t fully return to his previous level, his potential for a strong performance sets him apart from many of the other options.

Miami Marlins (Alcantara) at San Francisco Giants (DeSclafani)

Anthony DeSclafani is another popular choice despite being mediocre at best. The favorable park and the Marlins’ modest 3.7 implied run total explain the ownership, but it’s not a comfortable selection. Sandy Alcantara, one of the most talented pitchers on the slate, offers upside due to the Marlins tendency to let him pitch deep into games. Alcantara has a 22.9% strikeout rate and a 3.65 FIP. His skill set makes him an appealing option, although the hitting-friendly ballpark and the capable Giants lineup should be taken into account.

Author

Adam Scherer

Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].