As with all of the tools at Stokastic, MLB Bet Pro has proven its mettle once against by delivering +EV, market-demolishing MLB player props on a nightly basis. Our top 3 picks of the night all hit yesterday, which brings us to 6-2 on the week! To continue the streak, we are turning to the evening MLB slate to find the best strikeout and total bases bets for Wednesday, May 31, including a play on the league’s largest slap hitter, Daniel Vogelbach.
Please note that these are just three of the +EV MLB player props on MLB Bet Pro; the model has over 100 other options, which you can access by signing up now to get Stokastic’s Bet Pro offer: One trial month for $24.95 that gets you access to both NBA and MLB Bet Pro, plus access to our Premium Chalkboard!
Top MLB Player Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | May 31
3. Daniel Vogelbach Over 0.5 Total Bases (-110, BetMGM)
On the surface, this is a matchup between a .221 hitter and a pitcher who has contended for the Cy Young in recent years. However, Aaron Nola has not had his best stuff in 2023, as he is allowing his highest opponent batting average since 2017, his highest slugging and home run rates since ever, and his strikeout rate has dipped below 22% for the first time since his rookie season.
And though the sample is so small that it is rendered irrelevant, Vogelbach is 3-for-8 with a double against Nola in his career. He also boosts his batting average to .240 against righties, so it is not like Vogelbach has been completely overmatched despite a lackluster May. MLB Bet Pro loves this as a power spot for Vogelbach, projecting him for 2.1 total bases and a 57% rate on over 0.5. That gives this play a 9% expected ROI.
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2. Alek Manoah Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-134, BetRivers)
Manoah’s strikeout rate in his All-Star 2022 season was not exactly elite, but he did manage to punch out more than 8.2 per nine innings at a rate of 22.9%. This year he is down to 7.7 per nine and just an 18% clip. Manoah has only gone over 5.5 in two of 11 starts — in part due to his averaging less than five innings per outing — and even a matchup against the Brewers is not helping his projection of 4.4 on MLB Bet Pro.
Milwaukee strikes out at the league’s fourth-highest rate and features a subpar offense, but nothing Manoah has shown this year suggests his line should be any higher than 4.5. The strikeouts just are not there, the hard hits are in abundance (43.4%), and his nights are ending far sooner than the Blue Jays hoped they would after his dominant 2022. MLB Bet Pro gives this under a 65% chance of hitting.
1. Louie Varland Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-102, FanDuel)
Varland is another power-susceptible starter, only the differences between him and Manoah are his lower line and higher strikeout numbers. He is striking out one per inning, so to get to five strikeouts he only needs to make it five innings. Yes, the Astros are a daunting team on paper since they have a below-average strikeout rate, but they also are only posting a team ISO of .147 (24th in MLB), so five innings is hardly a stretch for Varland. He has made it that far in all but one of his six starts this year and has struck out five-plus in four of six.
MLB Bet Pro has him getting all the way to 5.7 strikeouts — so Varland and Manoah should really have swapped lines. And with some favorable odds at -102 on FanDuel, Varland’s over has the highest EV on the evening slate at a massive 20%. He is the lock of the night.