NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Build Around Bam (March 8)

We’re back with another six-game NBA slate on Friday that tips off at 7 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, including Bam Adebayo and John Konchar. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments.

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NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, March 8

NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Warriors-Raptors: Bam Adebayo

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 15.60%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,300

With only six games on tonight’s docket, there is only one player priced above $10k on DraftKings. As such, there are limited spend up options to begin with, and most of them are projected to be either correctly or over owned. Bam Adebayo is the odd man out, however, and he’s the top contrarian stud on DraftKings at a falling $8,300 price tag.

Although Adebayo has been more solid than spectacular recently, that’s baked into his price tag, as he’s now $307 cheaper than his average salary on DraftKings this season. Matched up with a Thunder team that ranks dead last in rebounding, Adebayo finds himself in a really good spot tonight and the field isn’t getting to him at nearly the rate they should be on DraftKings.

While he’s not getting completely forgotten about, Adebayo is projected to be in just 9.80% of lineups on DraftKings. With an optimal percentage of 15.60%, it’s clear why Miami’s big man looks so good from a leverage perspective.

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NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Pelicans-76ers: Kyle Lowry

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 8.40%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,700

Kyle Lowry grades out extremely well in Stokastic’s tools, and he’s the top contrarian mid-tier play on DraftKings at $5,700. Rostering Lowry isn’t all that fun in the year 2024, but with both Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey still on the sidelines, he’s too cheap for his current role.

Although Lowry has bounced around the league a bit the past few years, he is playing good ball right now for a Philadelphia team that is trying to stay afloat.

With the majority of ownership on this slate going to players from Atlanta and Washington, Lowry is falling through the cracks in a big way on DraftKings. The former Villanova star is projected to be in just 4.60% of lineups but has an 8.40% optimal percentage. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to tough matchup against the Pelicans, Lowry has upside at $5,700, and embracing that volatility is key in GPPs.


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NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Hawks-Grizzlies: John Konchar

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 16.40%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $4,600

John Konchar is the highest graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools, and he’s the obvious top contrarian value play on DraftKings at $4,600.

Konchar is playing big minutes right now, and as Memphis continues to deal with a litany of injuries, his $4,600 price tag is too cheap for a matchup against the Hawks. Despite numerous clear signs pointing to value here, Konchar is falling through the cracks in a big way on DraftKings.

While it’s unlikely that Konchar puts up a score that’s needed to win tournaments, Stokastic’s tools currently have him optimal 16.40% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 7.20% of lineups projected to roster him, Konchar offers a ton of leverage with both shooting guard and small forward eligibility.


Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Process Show with Josh Engleman on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by BetMGM – new users, use this link to receive $150 in Bonus Bets when you bet $5! Full details here.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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