UFC 299 DFS Picks: Ion Cutelaba Gives Me Mixed Emotions

It’s time to continue our UFC DFS picks series by providing information on Ion Cutelaba and others in this UFC 299 DFS picks post!

Looking for more UFC Fight Night DFS picks or value plays? Stokastic has MMA projections, UFC ownership, and UFC top fighters data!

Benoit Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis is set to fight against Dustin Poirier with the highest predicted ownership on the slate. He is also a significant favorite. Saint Denis is currently on a five-fight winning streak, with his only defeat being a unanimous decision loss to Elizeu Zaleski in his UFC debut in October 2021. Each of his victories in this streak has been through a finish, but this fight represents a significant step up in competition.

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Poirier enters the fight having lost two of his last three matches, although these losses were to former UFC Lightweight champion Charles Oliveira and current BMF title holder Justin Gaethje. The question arises: was the headkick KO loss to Gaethje the beginning of Poirier’s decline? The odds seem to suggest so.

According to the odds, Saint Denis is twice as likely as Poirier to finish this fight. His chances of finishing are currently at 57% according to our Top Fighters Tool.

UFC 299 DFS Picks: Despite the ownership, Saint Denis appears to be the best play on the slate. He is unquestionably the first choice in every cash lineup, and is expected to be heavily used in GPPs due to his finish odds and appealing price ($8900).

Ion Cutelaba

Rostering Ion Cutelaba often gives me mixed feelings. He has lost three out of his last four fights, with his only recent victory against Tanner Boser. All his last six losses have been through a finish. His opponent, Felipe Lins, is on a three-fight winning streak. Interestingly, Lins lost to Cutelaba’s most recent opponent in June 2020. Despite Cutelaba’s inconsistent record, the data suggests he’s a good pick for GPPs.

Cutelaba has a 36% chance of winning via a finish, which is promising compared to his current 21% ownership projection. This appears to be good value. Of Lins’ five losses, three were via strikes, one was a decision, and one was due to a knee injury. Cutelaba, on the other hand, has won four of his six UFC fights via strikes.

UFC 299 DFS Picks: We need Cutelaba to be aggressive with his strikes. This is a risk I’m willing to take for $8400.

Michal Oleksiejczuk

If I’m considering an underdog, my pick would be Michael Oleksiejczuk. He comes into his fight with Michel Pereira having secured three victories in his last four fights. His sole defeat was a submission loss to Caio Borralho last April. On the other hand, Pereira is on a six-fight winning streak, most recently achieving a TKO win against Andre Petroski in just 66 seconds. Pereira is flashy but tends to be low volume, resulting in slightly dull bouts occasionally.

However, that doesn’t concern me. What catches my attention is the 60%+ likelihood of this fight ending within the distance. Both fighters have equal odds of winning this bout via strikes, though Pereira has a slight advantage on the ground. Despite this, their finish odds are closer than the prices suggest.

UFC 299 DFS Picks: The prospect of securing a potential KO finish for only $7500 makes Oleksiejczuk my top underdog for the entire UFC 299 card.

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Josh is Contributor for Stokastic.com where he hosts video and writes content regularly across the primary sports of MLB, NBA, and NFL as well as contributing to the development of models and projections for soccer. He originally started producing projections & articles for Reddit's r/DFSports in 2014 where he built a loyal following that brought him to where he is today. Josh is most known for his elaborate Excel spreadsheets, which he shares in all of his video content. You can find him on Twitter or hanging out in Stokastic's Premium Chalkboard. You can contact Josh by emailing [email protected].

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