NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Loading Up On Nets-Pelicans (March 19)

Today’s NBA slate has five games and tips off at 7 p.m. EST on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s NBA DFS Boom/Bust tool, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best NBA DFS contrarian picks for today’s action, which include Zion Williamson and Cameron Johnson. One of the keys to a winning NBA DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments.

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NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, March 19

NBA DFS High-Priced Contrarian Pick

Pelicans-Nets: Zion Williamson

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 19.30%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,700

Zion Williamson has yet to appear in this article this season, but he’s the top contrarian stud on DraftKings tonight. Averaging 22.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.5 stocks per game, Williamson has taken his game to new heights since being moved to point guard at the beginning of February. He is currently playing the best ball of his career, and the proof is in the pudding, as he’s averaging 49.60 DraftKings points over the past six games. Despite his nightly production, the field isn’t getting to Williamson at nearly the rate it should be.

As of this writing, Williamson is the highest-graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools. While he’s not been completely forgotten, only 13.30% of lineups are expected to roster him on DraftKings. At an optimal percentage of 20.50%, Williamson looks elite from a leverage standpoint.

NBA DFS Mid-Priced Contrarian Pick

Pelicans-Nets: Cameron Johnson

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 9.30%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $5,400

Going to the other side of the Pelicans-Nets game, Cameron Johnson also grades out extremely well in Stokastic’s tools. Johnson is averaging 25.9 DraftKings points per game, and although his production is volatile, he has upside at a price tag that’s almost $400 less than his average salary this season.

Due to his inconsistent production, Johnson is never a guy I love rostering when he’s pulling ownership. When the masses are not on him, however, I’m much more willing to take chances on his volatility due to his sky high ceiling on any given night.

Though he has upside at his falling price point, Johnson is slipping through the cracks in a big way on DraftKings. He is projected to be in just 3.70% of lineups but has a 9.30% optimal percentage. While his floor might be lower than other players in his price range due to his need to make shots and overall inconsistencies, Johnson is a strong boom possibility at $5,400.

NBA DFS Low-Priced Contrarian Pick

Pelicans-Nets: Jose Alvarado

Stokastic’s Optimality Projection
DraftKings: 9.60%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,600

Pivoting right back to the Pelicans, Jose Alvarado is the third-highest-graded leverage play in Stokastic’s tools. Although Alvarado is usually just a back-end rotation piece when everyone is healthy, he’s filled in admirably for the injured Dyson Daniels. Alvarado only plays 17.5 minutes per game this season, but that number has continued to increase over the past month. That and his $3,600 price tag open up paths to roster construction that will be inaccessible to others.

Despite projecting for only 17.04 fantasy points, Alvarado projects to be optimal 9.60% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, yet only 4.10% of lineups are projected to roster him.

Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Contrarian Picks Today

Check out the NBA DFS Strategy Show on YouTube, where Stokastic pros break down all of the key elements for today’s slate.

Matt Belman graduated from Tulane University with a degree in Consumer Behavior. He has been playing and analyzing DFS full time since 2018. He has qualified for the 2023 DraftKings NBA World Championship (5x), the 2023 DraftKings MLB World Championship (2x), the 2023 FanDuel MLB World Championship (2x) and the 2023 DraftKings NFL World Championship. You can find him on X at @fantasytipsmatt.

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