NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Deni Avdija, Jordan Poole + Memphis Value (April 5)

Friday sees the NBA DFS action tipping off at 7 p.m. ET featured slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Deni Avdija, Jordan Poole, Memphis value and other recommended options.

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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, April 4

NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks

Deni Avdija: Wizards vs. Trail Blazers

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 38.45 | FanDuel: 37.11
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 4.6% | FanDuel: 11.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,700 | FanDuel: $7,700

In the last game, Deni Avdija was dealing with migraine headaches, that sent him to the lockerroom at the end of the third quarter. In the four games prior to that, he had at least 38 minutes of run.

Kyle Kuzma, Tyus Jones, Marvin Bagley III, Bilal Coulibaly and Landry Shamet are all out, while Richaun Holmes is questionable and has missed the last four games.

This means Avdija will share the primary scoring role with Jordan Poole, while being the secondary facilitator. The matchup is phenomenal and the minutes are endless, so there is not much else to add with regards to this duo. Corey Kispert and Jared Butler are reasonable plays, while Tristan Vukcevic becomes intriguing if he sticks with the first five for a second game.

On the other side, Deandre Ayton gets a great matchup against either an offense first center in Holmes or an in-over-his-head rookie in Vukcevic. Jabari Walker, Dalano Banton and Scoot Henderson are priority plays from Portland, with differentiation plays available in Khis Murray and Rayan Rupert, though that is stretching things just a bit on a 10-game slate.

Just for fun and as a reminder, Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, Malcolm Brogdon, Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle and Robert Williams III, are all out for the rest of the season.


Gregory “GG” Jackson: Grizzlies vs. Pistons

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 38.01 | FanDuel: 36.33
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 50.1% | FanDuel: 39.6%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $6,000 | FanDuel: $5,900

Rookie Gregory “GG” Jackson is coming off his first career double-double, which is a bit of a surprise. Thus far he has mostly gotten his fantasy production via scoring and his career-high 12 rebounds in Milwaukee on Wednesday were one more than his preceding three games combined.

Just when it seemed like Memphis couldn’t run more shorthanded, well here we are.

Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke, Santi Aldama, Luke Kennard and John Konchar. Then of course there will be no Ja Morant, Marcus Smart, Ziaire Williams, Derrick Rose or Yuta Watanabe for the last part of the season either.

That means ample run for Jordan Goodwin, Scotty Pippen Jr., Jake LaRavia, Lamar Stevenson, Trey Jemison and Zavier Simpson aka Captain Hook. The Grizzlies are providing all the value, but keep in mind there are plenty of similar discount dandies in the 20-team player pool, so keep tournament differentiation in mind when crafting rosters tonight.

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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

RJ Barrett is someone to target in the sports wagering market with the under on his 6.5 rebounds prop.

Currently this wager is available at -115 on Unibet which is a great value when comparing it against the -130 to -136 on most other books, plus “sharp” book Pinnacle is all the way down at -150.

By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.

Per the true odds of -128 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a steady 4.8% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.

NBA Bet Pro currently has Barrett projected for 31.7 minutes and 6.46 rebounds. This projection is right in line with tonight’s targeted threshold but still does not account for variable outcomes. The 56% win rate gives us a good indication that, on a long time horizon, this is exactly the type of wager we are looking for — but only at -128odds or better.

Barrett missed three weeks, attending to a personal matter. In his first game back, he played 26.5 minutes. Tonight something around 30 is likely and with the Raptors not playing for anything, there is no need to push Barrett as they need him good to go for next season. There of course could be an outlier, like the team staying close enough to hand Milwaukee a third-consecutive loss, but even then Barrett may have a soft minutes cap. He is averaging 6.2 rebounds per 36 minutes in his 28 games with Toronto for additional perspective.

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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Check out the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show starting at 6 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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