NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: The Rebound King is Back! (April 11)

Tuesday begins the NBA week with an 11-game featured slate locking at 7 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. There are several options in the player pool worth analyzing to find the top NBA DFS building blocks and NBA DFS picks. Let’s dig into the NBA DFS picks and core plays like Luka Doncic, Victor Wembanyama and other recommended options.

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NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today: Thursday, April 11

NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks

Domantas Sabonis: Kings vs. Pelicans

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 54.83 | FanDuel: 51.58
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 18.5% | FanDuel: 16.5%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10400 | FanDuel: $10600

Sacramento currently has a half-game lead over the Lakers and a one-game edge on the Warriors. If the Kings hold on, they will at least have homecourt advantage over the other two teams as well as two chances to make the postseason.

While it is a stretch they can catch the Phoenix Suns for the No. 7 slot, these two teams square off tomorrow, so it behooves the Kings to lock up a victory tonight.

The New Orleans Pelicans are only half a game above the Suns, which has them safely in the postseason if everything remains unchanged over the last few days of the regular season. They too will be going for the gusto, and as 1-point road dogs, this should be a spirited game with both teams motivated to win. The Pelicans also play tomorrow, so the only real risk in this game is that, if it is extremely lopsided, the losing squad may opt to pull their regulars in preparation for tomorrow.

In his last seven games against New Orleans, Domantas Sabonis has six double-doubles and three triple-doubles. He is also leading the league for the second consecutive season in rebounding with 13.8 per game, which is a new career high. He also leads the team with a personal-best 8.2 assists per game, which is the catalyst for his league-leading 26 triple-doubles.

De’Aaron Fox has taken things to the next level this year, highlighted by the last four games. In this stretch he is averaging 40.0 minutes and 26.0 field goal attempts with a 45.2% conversion rate. That includes 13.5 3-pointers at a ridiculous 42.6% success rate in this stretch. This culminated in 30.5 points. 6.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2.1 combined blocks and steals.

Keegan Murray has helped pick up the scoring load after Malik Monk went down for the season with an MCL sprain. He should see heavy minutes, though he is more of a neutral option for the featured-slate tournaments.

Brandon Ingram (knee bruise) has missed the last 10 games, and while he is listed out for tonight, there is a chance he will return to action tomorrow or Sunday. Zion Williamson has stepped up in his absence, and the first overall selection of the 2019 NBA Draft has played 67 games already, which is a season high and a large portion of his 181 career regular season appearances.

CJ McCollum is averaging 19.7 points per game this year, which is his lowest since becoming a full-time starter all the way back in 2015-16. Over the last 10 games without Ingram, he is averaging 38.5 minutes and 22.1 field goal attempts, making 44.8% of his shots. McCollum has been borderline epic from downtown, averaging 4.5 made 3-pointers on 10.4 attempts per game in this stretch. He is also averaging 10.8 combined rebounds and assists, giving him a strong fantasy floor.

Trey Murphy III and Herbert Jones are in play for all slates tonight, particularly with their roster-friendly multi-position eligibility.


Talen Horton-Tucker: Jazz vs. Rockets

Stokastic’s Fantasy Point Projections
DraftKings: 35.32 | FanDuel: 34.75
Stokastic’s Rostership Projections
DraftKings: 82.1% | FanDuel: 34.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $3,700 | FanDuel: $5,600

Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, John Collins, Walker Kessler and Kris Dunn are all finito for the remainder of the season. Collin Sexton missed the last game and is ruled out tonight, which means fewer options for coach Will Hardy to choose from.

Talen Horton-Tucker is unlikely to start, but he could stay out of the doghouse long enough to approach the 30- to 32-minute range like the last game.

Horton-Tucker got there by playing the entire second and fourth quarters as Hardy grouped the starters and reserves together, with center Omer Yurtseven and rookie point guard Keyonte George getting overlap with both units. Yurtseven has started the last three games, but the last one was the outlier with 37.3 minutes, compared to 19.3 and 21.1 in the preceding pair. Luka Samanic is appealing with a $3,600 tag on DraftKings and a $4,500 cap hit on FanDuel. Tread lightly if he is not starting. Darius Bazley saw 25.3 minutes off the bench, which was on the low side of his 30.2 and 33.5 in the prior two games. It is important to note that these are the only games he has stepped on the court since joining the Jazz on March 12.

In summary, Utah has some excellent value plays, but these options all carry risk, even though the team is down to the dregs of the roster.

Houston couldn’t quite put everything together and stay in contention for a Play-In Tournament slot, but going from 22 wins to 39 and counting in the Western Conference is no trivial triumph. If the Rockets win their final three games, they will end up with a winning season as well as finishing on a high note.

Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr. are the trio to target, with rookie Amen Thompson joining them on DraftKings, while it is veteran Dillon Brooks who looks better on the blue site.

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Today’s Top Sports Betting Pick

DeMar DeRozan and the Chicago Bulls would like a win tonight. However, they should be able to handle Detroit without overexerting the regulars, even in a road game. The Bulls do have a 1.5-game lead over Atlanta, so this is not a must-win game just yet, as they would still host the Hawks in the first elimination game of the Play-In Tournament.

That has the under on 4.5 rebounds prop looking like a wager to target at +120 on BetMGM and DraftKings.

By using OddsShopper to do the heavy lifting when researching favorable bets, we can quickly spot inefficient lines like this one, and having accounts at multiple sportsbooks allows us to pivot to the best number quickly.

 

Per the true odds of +110 (how OddsShopper measures the potential expected ROI of a given wager), this opportunity has a solid 4.9% positive expected ROI as a function of the inefficient line.

NBA Bet Pro currently has DeRozan projected for 38.8 minutes and 4.97 rebounds. While that is above the threshold, it does not account for a varied range of actual outcomes. Getting this wager down at plus money is key, particularly with the 48% expected success rate.

DeRozan is averaging a league-leading 37.8 minutes this season, with 4.3 rebounds per game. While he has played a whopping 40.6 minutes per game over the last five, he also has averaged just 3.4 rebounds in this stretch. There is a good chance that he will still see minutes tonight, especially if Cade Cunningham makes one last appearance in this, the lone home game for Detroit among the final six games. Cunningham is not “hurt” but rather in the “asset management” phase of the season, with his knee and overall health more important for next year.

Chicago gets a winnable matchup in Washington tomorrow, and victories tonight and Friday assure that the Bulls won’t have to go too hard against New York, as they should maintain the homecourt edge over Atlanta for the first Play-In Tournament game.

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Final Thoughts on NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks Today

Get all the latest news and updates tonight on the Stokastic NBA Live Before Lock Show starting at 6 p.m. ET on YouTube, breaking down all of the key elements for today’s slate. Brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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