Seahawks-Cowboys DFS Picks: Can Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb Be Stopped?! (November 30)

Thursday Night Football brings a pair of teams heading in different directions as the floundering Seattle Seahawks head to Dallas to face the surging Cowboys. In this issue of Stokastic’s NFL DFS picks series, we’ll be providing our Seahawks-Cowboys DFS plays for the Thursday Night Football Showdown slate.

Stokastic is bringing plenty of NFL DFS tools and information for all the different slates, game formats and sites. This column will provide a free analysis of the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. It includes team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown analysis to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Thursday Night slate, so check out these Seahawks-Cowboys DFS picks.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Seahawks-Cowboys DFS Picks

Seattle Seahawks: 19.25 Points

Quarterback

The Stokastic NFL DFS projections have Geno Smith as a middling option in the full Week 13 player pool, just outside the top 15 quarterbacks. That is normally not too bad, however, this week there are six teams on byes. Seattle has not scored a touchdown since the first quarter of Week 10. Even worse, the Seahawks have scored 20 or fewer points in four of their last six games.

Currently the team has dropped two in a row and could easily lose the next three as they are in San Francisco next weekend and then hosting the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15. It is going to be a tough row to hoe for Smith and company tonight as the Dallas defense has allowed more than 17 points only three times this season, with each game on the road and two of the games were against the Eagles and 49ers, which are elite offenses.

Aside from Sam Howell hitting 300 yards on the nose in the Thanksgiving matchup, only Brock Purdy (252) has thrown for more than 227 yards against the Dallas defense. It would be a shock to see Smith throw for more than 250 yards tonight as he has hit that mark only twice in the last six games with 254 against Cleveland and 369 against Washington. Touchdowns have also been sporadic with just 12 on the season against eight interceptions. It looks like last year was a Cinderella season, that is not to be replicated again by the NFL nomad.

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Running Back

Kenneth Walker III (oblique) did not practice this week, and though he is listed as doubtful, he is not going to suit up tonight. Each of the last two games, rookie Zach Charbonnet has rushed for 47 yards on 15 and 14 carries, respectively. He also has 10 targets, which is the third most on the team during this timeframe, though while he has caught each offering, it has been for a grand total of 33 yards.

The former UCLA Bruin is likely to tally around 70 combined yards tonight, with a 20% probability of scoring his first career touchdown. Veteran DeeJay Dallas will be the backup, though on Thanksgiving in the same role, he was on the field for just seven offensive plays, receiving one target for five yards and a pair of carries for 10 more. Rookie Kenny McIntosh is likely suiting up tonight, be the seventh rounder out of Georgia has yet to see the field on offense.

Wide Receivers

Tyler Lockett (95%) and DK Metcalf (86%) rarely left the field last Thursday, with rookies Jaxon Smith-Njigba (75%) and Jake Bobo (21%) logging the remainder of the snaps. Well that is not entirely true as Dee Eskridge did get in for one play, gaining 10 yards on a jet sweep, for just his second offensive touch of the season.

Metcalf has two more targets than Lockett this season, with both dominating the team-share. Metcalf has the only 100 yard game, which was all the way back in Week 3, but this duo has combined for a pair of 90-plus yard efforts each since then. Metcalf has a 33%, $2,400 premium on DraftKings which is a little ridiculous, with the $1,000 difference on FanDuel more appropriate. Of course this is driving his popularity levels in different directions on the two sites as expected.

Smith-Njigba led the team with 34 receiving yards against the 49ers, with most coming on a 34-yard catch that was almost out of his grasp. It is hard to be excited about any of these wideouts tonight, but at least we are all dealing with the same decision points.

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Tight Ends

The tight ends are a carousel of chaos with Will Dissly and Noah Fant recording catches in each of the last three games and Colby Parkinson getting his name in the box score twice. There is nothing to infer from the target distribution or playing time as while Fant is on the field for around 60% of the offensive plays, he has seven targets, which is one more than Dissly who sees about half of the action. Parkinson has been on the field for three more plays than Dissly during this timeframe, but with only two looks from Smith.

Defense/Special Teams

Dallas is ceding just over two sacks a game and Seattle is in the middle of the pack recording three quarterback takedowns per tilt. The Cowboys have lost only 10 turnovers all season, while the Seahawks are a middling unit with 15 takeaways.

Dallas Cowboys: 28.25 Points

Quarterback

Dak Prescott should be able to move the ball tonight, with the Seattle defense raking 23rd on the DVOA list against the pass. He may not get many big plays, but considering that Seattle has allowed opposing teams a 44.1% third down conversion rate, he is not likely to be at the helm of many stalled drives.

The bend but don’t break philosophy of the defense has resulted in just four games where opposing signal-callers have thrown for multiple touchdowns, but that should not dissuade the savvy gamer from loading up on Prescott who has 17 passing touchdowns in his last five appearances.

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Running Back

Tony Pollard has scored in each of the last two games, but he has rushed for more than more than 55 yards just twice in the last six games, with a high of 79 yards coming last Thursday. The passing volume has not been there either this season as it seems that the Cowboys are content with turning the formerly electric back into last year’s Ezekiel Elliott. To be fair to Pollard, people keep forgetting that he had ankle surgery for his high-ankle sprain, which he suffered in the last playoff game. That “tightrope” surgery does seem to zap the explosiveness of the recipients, which takes time to regain.

Rico Dowdle has been dealing with an ankle issue for the last couple of weeks, but the rookie should be suiting up tonight. Dallas has been content to limit Pollard’s workload when the games are out of hand, so he is likely to get half a dozen touches tonight with an outside shot at twice that, depending on how long the Seahawks can hang tough.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb (104) has more targets than Brandin Cooks (48) and Michael Gallup (46) combined, while also producing as one of the best five receivers in the league. Since the Week 7 bye, Lamb has averaged 12.4 targets per game, with at least nine in each appearance. Cooks has been on the rise with 19 looks over the last three games, with Jalen Tolbert getting 13, which has outpaced the eight for Gallup.

Tolbert was a disappointment in his rookie season, but he has improved dramatically and is typically on the field around 40% of the time. KaVontae Turpin is the main return man, but the team does tend to give him around a dozen snaps on offense and usually schemes him for a look or two. He has caught touchdowns in two of the last three games, despite seeing a scant five targets.

Tight End

Jake Ferguson has done a solid job replacing Dalton Schultz, but the rookie has seen his targets falling for the last four games (10, 7, 5 and 3). Still we know that the tight end position has been featured in the Dallas offense for years and even with longtime offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now with the Chargers, Head coach Mike McCarthy is the one calling plays and he has a strong history of using tight ends across his time in Green Bay and Dallas.

Luke Schoonmaker sees the field around 40% of the time and he is usually good for a target and potentially two. While he is in the bargain bin, the $1,800 salary on DraftKings is not exactly the extreme punt we are looking for tonight. Sean McKeon is at the $200 minimum salary, however, he has just one target since the bye and two total on the year.

Defense/Special Teams

Seattle allows around 2.5 sacks per game which is league average, however the team has been a mess the last four games, allowing 13 quarterback takedowns. Dallas is fourth overall with 33 sacks in 11 games. On the turnover front, the Seahawks suffer just over one per tilt, while Dallas averages about 1.5 takeaways per game. Cornerback DaRon Bland has been anything but, returning FIVE of his seven interceptions for touchdowns.

Thursday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value. However, those taking the MME approach should remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. That also works conversely, pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with his quarterback.

Seahawks-Cowboys DFS Picks Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Seahawks-Cowboys

  1. CeeDee Lamb: Gets the slightest of edges over his quarterback on DraftKings for the full-PPR and on FanDuel for the $1,500 savings.
  2. Dak Prescott: Definitely a multiplier-option.
  3. Tony Pollard: If he had a couple more touchdowns, his detractors would be few and far between.
  4. Zach Charbonnet: Salary and opportunities align, production has not so far.
  5. Tyler Lockett: Gets the nod over Metcalf for salary savings and similar workload.
  6. Jason Myers: Bad offense has granted him 12 attempts in last three games, down year for an otherwise solid kicker.
  7. Geno Smith: Shaky offensive line, lack of big plays and now a bruised triceps/elbow, Drew Lock is not the answer, but he probably gets a shot at some point before the end of the season.
  8. DK Metcalf: One touchdown in the last six games, four games with 69 or fewer yards in this stretch is not nice.
  9. Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Rookie has flashed talent, will break through at some point – probably not tonight.
  10. Brandon Aubrey: Rookie still perfect on 22 field goal attempts, missed three of 36 point after t

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Seahawks-Cowboys

  1. Brandin Cooks: On a nice run, but increasing salary and a crowded offense keep him out of the top-10.
  2. Dallas D/ST: 18 sacks, three takeaways and two scores in last three games, allowing just 37 total points to the opposition.
  3. Jake Ferguson: Still in play, but salary and lack of volume make him a tough add.
  4. Jalen Tolbert: Give the kid a look after the disastrous lost season.
  5. Noah Fant: On the field the most, decent receiver – hindered by overall lack of passing volume.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Seahawks-Cowboys

  1. Rico Dowdle: If not for the ankle injury, he would be at the top of the above section.
  2. Michael Gallup: Steady presence, but far from a priority in this offense.
  3. Seattle D/ST: Need a splash play in order to overcome the dings for points allowed.
  4. DeeJay Dallas: If anything happens to Charbonnet, the veteran is basically the last man standing. Also returns punts and will take over kickoffs if Eskridge is inactive.
  5. Colby Parkinson and Will Dissly: Dissly dealing with a sore hip, but was a full practice participant on Wednesday.
  6. KaVontae Turpin: Touchdown variance could punish him, but he still returns kicks and gets a couple offensive chances.
  7. Jake Bobo: In play as a DraftKings punt, hard to see more than a couple targets, but he could get lucky.
  8. Luke Schoonmaker: Backup tight ends and single-game slates go together like peas and carrots.
  9. Dee Eskridge: Returns kickoffs, occasional offensive opportunity, though his injuries and the rookies have made for a crowded receiver room.
  10. Jalen Brooks: Deep cut and rarely active, but extreme DraftKings punt if suited up.
  11. Drew Lock: The clock is ticking on Geno.
  12. Keny McIntosh, Sean McKeon, Hunter Luepke, Brady Russell, Deuce Vaughn, Payton Hendershot, Steve Largent and Emmitt Smith: Maybe next time.

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Eric MacPherson
Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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