Underdog Fantasy NFL Pick’em Predictions: Najee Harris Free Square (December 7)

The 7-5 Pittsburgh Steelers will host the 2-10 New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football. The NFL was envisioning a matchup between two Hall of Fame coaches positioning their teams for a playoff run when they scheduled this game, but instead they got two backup quarterbacks and the lowest total of the year. The Steelers are 6-point favorites at home for this gross 30.5 total. Let’s get to the Underdog Fantasy NFL picks, starting with Najee Harris.

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Underdog NFL Fantasy Pick’em Predictions (December 7)

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Najee Harris H/L 51.5 Rushing Yards

Unfortunately, if you’re a new user, you can’t double down on Najee Harris. But if you’re a veteran player on Underdog, you can use this play! Let’s face it, this game is a dumpster fire, but Harris might be able to win us some money by taking the over on his rushing yards play. The one bright spot for the Patriots this season has been their run defense that has allowed just 889 rushing yards, which ranks eighth best in the NFL. However, what works in our favor is that teams still prefer to run against them, as the 263 attempts allowed rank 12th.

Harris is averaging 15 attempts over his last five games and with Mitch Trubisky starting at quarterback tonight, I expect Mike Tomlin to be risk-averse with a run-heavy attack. Stokastic’s NFL Bet Pro tool has Harris projected for 56.7 rushing yards, while DraftKings has this play listed at 58.5.

Best Underdog NFL Fantasy Play: Najee Harris Higher than 51.5 Rushing Yards

Ezekiel Elliot H/L 15.5 Receiving Yards

Ezekiel Elliot will get the start tonight with Rhamondre Stevenson ruled out for the Patriots. Taking a look at Stokastic’s NFL Bet Pro tool, the over on this play has the highest win percentage in this game. Stokastic’s 20.6 projection gives the over a 54% win rate. Elliott has had at least two receptions in each of the last four games and should get a few more targets tonight, as his snap share should increase as the featured running back.

The Steelers rank seventh against running backs this season, and I’m not super confident in the Patriots being able to do anything tonight, but if they are going to move the ball at all, it will likely be with short dump passes. I’m trusting the tool on this one.

Best Underdog NFL Fantasy Play: Ezekiel Elliot Higher Than 15.5 Receiving Yards

Diontae Johnson H/L 4.5 Receptions

Diontae Johnson likely will get the best of a bad matchup for the Steelers. The Patriots have allowed the eighth-most targets and 11th-most receptions to wide receivers this year. Johnson is averaging 7.3 targets in eight games. Trubisky has not started a game this season, but in two relief appearances where he threw more than 15 passes, Johnson had five and 14 targets. Going back to last season when Trubisky started against the Patriots in a 14-17 loss, Johnson had six receptions on 10 targets.

Best Underdog NFL Fantasy Play: Diontae Johnson Higher Than 4.5 Receptions

Looking for more Underdog Fantasy NFL action? Check out our Underdog Fantasy Promo Codes page where we keep you updated with the latest offers like this Turkey Day Special below!

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Author
Tim Speros is a sports betting analyst and a distinguished DFS writer for OddsShopper and Stokastic. With over 15 years of experience in the sports industry, Tim has a passion for educating and entertaining others through sports. Before joining our team, Tim worked in player development for the NBA league office, served as an NBA statistician for the Golden State Warriors, and contributed to various fantasy sports content providers. Tim holds a bachelor’s degree from Boston College and a Master’s in Sports Management from Georgetown. When he’s not chasing his three kids around, he enjoys chasing the 30x flex plays on PrizePicks.

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