Welcome to the Divisional Round NFL DFS Value Picks Breakdown, where we dig into the four-game slate across Saturday and Sunday. Wild Card Weekend gave us plenty of excitement, but the Divisional matchups come with just as much intrigue. Looking ahead to Saturday, will the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants be able to keep their unexpected runs going, or will the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles overmatch those Wild Card winners? Sunday brings us matchups that project to be closer when looking at Vegas’ opening lines: the much anticipated rematch/completion of the Buffalo Bills hosting the Cincinnati Bengals, followed by the Dallas Cowboys visiting the San Francisco 49ers. This column will look for value plays by utilizing the Stokastic NFL DFS projections to address which players generate the best point-per-dollar value while analyzing the projected ownership to understand the leverage of these plays.
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Divisional Round Main Slate NFL DFS Picks & Value Plays
Quarterback: Brock Purdy – $5,600 DraftKings, $6,900 FanDuel
Daniel Jones and Brock Purdy provide a lot of salary savings when building lineups with the lowest priced quarterbacks on the slate. Preferring Purdy here has to do mostly with the matchup, as the Dallas defense doesn’t quite match the metrics the Philadelphia defense maintained throughout the season. San Francisco’s implied total (25.0) is also five points higher than New York’s. The projections slightly favor the value of the Giants’ dual-threat QB, but it took a rushing touchdown to save what was otherwise a putrid Week 14 showing in his only game aganst the Eagles. Jones definitely offers more upside, displayed last week against the Minnesota Vikings, but this matchup is not slightly comparable. On a pretty tightly priced slate, the extra $400 on DraftKings and $500 on FanDuel also goes a long way. Purdy has been exceptional since taking over for the 49ers, in seven starts providing an average value 3.9x his salary expectations. His best game was last week against a vulnerable Seattle Seahawks defense, but the confidence is growing, and coach Kyle Shanahan won’t be holding anything back at this point. Purdy’s attachment to this elite offense and loadout of weapons is more than enough to justify the cheapest QB on the slate as a great value play. Add in his sub-8% ownership and you have a sneaky leverage play that immediately offers unique roster construction.
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Quarterback: Jalen Hurts – $7,600 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
The third-most expensive QB this weekend is also currently the highest in ownership. Some might be concerned with Jalen Hurts’ injured throwing shoulder and/or how much he will be involved in the running game, yet Stokastic projects him as the highest value play on both platforms. In fact, Hurts projects so well that despite being the top owned at the position he still provides a positive leverage score per the Boom Bust Tool. New York has a middling defense but has improved and caused a lot of pocket chaos in its Wild Card game with Kirk Cousins. However, back in that Week 14 matchup, Hurts produced 30.4 DraftKings points and is now priced the lowest he’s been since Week 3. Additionally, the Giants allow 5.2 yards per rush attempt (30th), and on a tightly priced slate this is a tag that feels a little off considering Hurts has shown slate-breaking fantasy potential on a weekly basis. Philadelphia holds the second-highest implied total (27.75), which explains the Eagles Team Stack score where they fall just slightly below Kansas City but offer salary savings. With tremendous touchdown upside, Hurts deserves heavy consideration in cash or GPP formats.
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Running Back: Jerick McKinnon – $6,000 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Finding a defensive weakness this late in the NFL season is difficult, but the Jaguars have one glaring vulnerability and it benefits Jerick McKinnon more than anyone else. Jacksonville has allowed the second-most yards receiving (780) and most targets (135) to opposing running backs, and that’s where McKinnon excels. The dual-threat back has 79 targets on the season, ninth at the position, despite playing only 44.7% of snaps. Jacksonville allowing 6.7 yards per opponent pass attempt ranks in the bottom third of the NFL, furthering the upside of this expected volume. Speaking of upside, McKinnon rivals every player on the slate, yet on DraftKings he’s priced as if he didn’t break the slate two of the past five weeks. Over that span, he had back-to-back RB1 performances and an RB7 showing. He doesn’t project the best at the position, so expect him to be a contrarian way to get ownership in Stokastic’s Top Team Stack of the week.
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Wide Receiver: San Francisco 49ersÂ
The San Francisco NFL DFS Value Picks double stack builds itself on DraftKings where Brandon Aiyuk ($5,000) and Deebo Samuel ($5,900) are far too underpriced for the touchdown equity they possess. Dallas presents a much more formidable run defense than pass defense, given rather leaky corner play. Aiyuk looks slightly better if picking just between the two on DraftKings given the $900 in savings and clear connection with Purdy. On FanDuel, however, Samuel is the preferred play due to his tag ($7,000) being arguably the friendliest on their site. The premier linebacker play from the Cowboys makes pass attempts to the outside the sensible way to attack this defense. It’s truly the ultimate test for Purdy, who has established himself as a creator when pressure collapses his pocket as observed in last week’s decimation of the Seahawks.
Tight End: Dallas Goedert – $4,500 DraftKings, $6,200 FanDuel
Another NFL DFS Value Picks stacking option for the quarterback value listed above is Philadelphia’s re-emerging pass catcher, Dallas Goedert. After a five-week absence because of a shoulder injury, Goedert has seen his targets increase steadily over the past three weeks. He produced off this growing target share with 40+ yards receiving in each contest since his return. Goedert projects as one of the better flex eligible plays, particularly on DraftKings, where he’s also currently the best leverage play at the position. The New York defense has been susceptible to tight ends, allowing the eighth most fantasy points to the position this season. Tapping into the Eagles’ implied team total (27.75) is crucial at the tight end position, where a touchdown or two can separate from the rest at the position.Â
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