It is a huge 10-game slate tonight in the NHL, giving us a plethora of options for “] including Matthew Tkachuk and the New York Rangers. There are a few teams on a back-to-back situation meaning Stokastic subscribers should check in with Discord for updates throughout the day for key lineup information.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Steven Stamkos (TB at LA): DraftKings – $7,900 | FanDuel – $10,200
Steven Stamkos has been one of the top performers in this young campaign with seven goals and 9 points in just six games. He won’t keep up that scoring rate, obviously, but he is still landing over four shots per game as his ice time per game has reached a nine-season high – Stamkos has played under 20 minutes just once this season. Not only is he landing more shots because of more ice time, but he’s currently attempting more shots per minute than he has in any single season of his career. Whether lining up on the first or second line, he’s getting his minutes and his shots.
Going into Los Angeles provides the Lightning with a good power-play matchup. On the season, the Kings are third in the league in times short-handed this season, giving up over four and a half power plays per game. This wasn’t a team that took a lot of penalties last year, but poor defensive play seems to have forced them into taking shortcuts. The goaltending has made the penalty kill look worse than it is, but a bevy of opportunities may be in the cards for the Lightning. Stamkos is in play both as a one-off or as part of a power-play stack in tournaments.
For a cheaper, high-end center on FanDuel, Aleksander Barkov (FLA – $8,600) grades out as a good value for his price tonight. Let’s dive deeper into .
Boone Jenner (CBJ vs. ARI): DraftKings – $6,100 | FanDuel – $5,200
Another center getting a lot of ice time, Boone Jenner has just 4 points in seven games but he’s also averaging over three shots per game, partly thanks to his 20-plus minutes of ice time nightly. The injury to Patrik Laine pushed Jenner to the top power-play unit a few games ago, where he’s stayed. Columbus’s power play has yet to score this year but getting top power play time is much better than getting nothing at all. Laine returns tonight, which should give the team a boost with the man advantage.
That goes double for tonight considering the matchup. Arizona is in Columbus and the Coyotes are predictably awful. This team is building for 2025 and beyond, leaving a bare-bones lineup. They are bottom-10 on the season in both expected goals and actual goals against per 60 minutes on the penalty kill, being second worst in both categories at five-on-five. It is a phenomenal matchup for Columbus, and Jenner, at all strengths.
The only issue tonight is ownership. With the correlation of the Columbus top line and the fantastic matchup, a lot of DFS players will use the top line: they are projected for the highest ownership of any line on both sites. Jenner isn’t a player to one-off, given the playmakers on his wing, but he and his line mates warrant strong consideration even at their ownership levels given his tremendous value, especially on FanDuel.
Winger
Matthew Tkachuk (FLA at CHI): DraftKings – $7,800 | FanDuel – $8,800
Despite not skating with Barkov at five-on-five, Matthew Tkachuk has still managed eight points in six games, averaging just under five shots per game. He, too, is earning over 20 minutes a night on the season, not skating less than 18:49 in any of his six contests.
In a surprising early development, the Chicago Blackhawks have been good defensively, ranking just inside the top-10 by expected goals against at five-on-five. Chicago’s problem early in the season is giving up over four power plays to the opposition per game. It has led to five power-play goals allowed in five games, and that’s good news for Tkachuk, who earns the most power play time on ice per game for Florida. The Panthers, meanwhile, are drawing 4.5 power plays per game, second in the NHL. There is one team giving up a lot of power play opportunities and the other drawing a lot of power play opportunities. That plays favorably for Tkachuk.
On such a large slate with so many top options, ownership isn’t a concern here. The concern is how to use him in tournaments. A power-play stack include options like Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett are just fine, as is using Tkachuk by himself.
Jonathan Marchessault (VGK at SJ): DraftKings – $5,000 | FanDuel – $6,800
Vegas is on the second game of a road back-to-back. Those are typically tough nights for any squad, but this is a great matchup for the Golden Knights. They are visiting a San Jose team that is in the middle of the league in five-on-five defense and bottom-10 by expected goals allowed on the penalty kill. They have looked better in some games than last season but are still not a good defensive roster. Vegas has been one of the best teams to target this year.
The new Vegas lines pushes their second line into a shutdown role against San Jose’s top line. They have had poor defensive numbers to start the season, and it’s leading to more shots and more goals against. Jonathan Marchessault, skating on the second line and top power play unit, will get that good five-on-five matchup and reap the power-play benefits.
With the new line configurations for Vegas, the top six played a lot more last night than they typically do, with five of six forwards over 18 minutes, including Marchessault. He is one of top mid-range winger values on DraftKings tonight.
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Alexis Lafreniere (NYR vs COL): DraftKings – $3,500 | FanDuel – $5,100
Like many players in this early portion of the year, Alexis Lafreniere has had a bit of bad luck thus far. He has just one goal on 19 shots in six games, a shooting percentage of 5.3%. He shot over 17% in his first 135 career games, and he leads the team by individual expected goals generated per minute at five-on-five. He has been shooting more, getting good chances, but has been a little snake-bit. Once that streak of bad luck turns around, it’ll be an onslaught of scoring.
Colorado lost some very good depth up front in the offseason and the non-top line play has suffered because of it. With the top line off the ice, the expected goal share drops from nearly 52.5% to 46.6%. The defense isn’t bad, but the offense is non-existent and giving too many opportunities to Lafreniere and his line mates could be an issue.
That Rangers line is generating 3.5 expected goals and 4.5 actual goals per 60 minutes as the offense has just been dynamite with them on the ice. At his cheap price, Lafreniere is fine as a punt-type option, though a full line stack is acceptable as well.
For a cheap FanDuel option at the wing, Filip Zadina (DET – $3,300) is the top value priced $4,000 or less. He is now skating on Detroit’s second line and his time on ice per game has increased each night he’s been in the lineup.
Defense
Rasmus Andersson (CGY vs. PIT): DraftKings – $4,700 | FanDuel – $6,000
Unlike the Calgary forwards, Rasmus Andersson sees a huge share of the ice time for Calgary’s blue line. He is skating over 24 minutes a night, an increase of nearly 90 seconds from last season. He is not a guy that puts up good peripheral numbers with shots or blocks, but Calgary is a talented offensive team and he’s a good puck-mover that plays a lot of time with their top offensive stars. Typically, teams with Calgary’s offensive numbers are worth spending up for in .
On the year, Pittsburgh is bottom-10 in the league by both actual goals and expected goals against per 60 minutes on the penalty kill. Meanwhile, the top Calgary power play unit, that Andersson runs, has scored six times on 4.5 expected goals generated in just over 18 minutes of 5-on-4 ice time. This is a good power play matchup for Andersson against a Penguins team that played last night.
Calen Addison (MIN at MTL): DraftKings – $3,700 | FanDuel – $4,700
Four of six of Calen Addison’s points this year have come on the man advantage as he’s the power-play quarterback for Minnesota’s top quintet. Montreal doesn’t take a lot of penalties, but they are only one of four teams giving up north of 10 expected goals against per 60 minutes when down a man. They give up a lot of opportunities and great goaltending has been the only thing keeping the team from horrific penalty kill numbers elsewhere. That is not going to last.
There is a little early ownership for Addison both on DraftKings and FanDuel, less on the latter. He is a great option on the blue line for this slate given the power-play matchup the team finds itself.
Goalie
Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB at LA): DraftKings – $7,800 | FanDuel – $7,700
Despite a poor defensive start to the year for Tampa Bay – third-worst expected goals against rate in the league – Andrei Vasilevskiy has started strong with a .922 save percentage, having not given up more than three goals in any start and hitting the save bonus on DraftKings twice. He remains one of the top goalies in the league, ranking second in Goals Saved Above Expected over the last three seasons (per Evolving Hockey).
Tonight, among the 20 starting goalies, Vasilevskiy is sixth by overall point projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel. What’s more is that his price is not expensive anywhere, making him a mid-range goalie target for tournaments this evening.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
SEA2: Wennberg-Bjorkstrand-Burakovsky
Tonight, Buffalo is in town and when Seattle is at home, they often send out the Alex Wennberg line in a shutdown role. That means facing the Tage Thompson line tonight, which is a strong offensive line, but weak defensively, posting 3.6 expected goals against per 60 minutes this season (they were well below average last year, though better relatively speaking, at 2.8). Oliver Bjorkstrand is a shooting machine this campaign, averaging over four on target per game, with his shot attempt rate is 11th among all forwards and ahead of luminaries like Stamkos, Jack Hughes and Nathan MacKinnon. Wennberg can be left off the stack because of his lack of shooting but this is a cheap line in a good matchup getting 5% ownership or less on both sites by the Top Stacks tool.
NYR1: Zibanejad-Kreider-Kakko
One of the top leverage spots on the night is also one of the top lines on this slate. In nearly 60 minutes together thus far, this Rangers trio is managing over four expected goals per 60 minutes, a massive offensive number. Both Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad are also on the top power-play unit, facing an Avalanche team that is 10th by power-play opportunities given up per game in the early portion of this season. Individually, Zibanejad is fifth in all-situations shot attempt rate and second in individual expected goals per 60 minutes. He is shooting a lot, gets over 20 minutes a night, and Colorado has been no better than average defensively while short-handed this year. A high-powered line like NYR1 should not be low single-digit ownership at home, even on a slate this large. They are in high standing for us tonight.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
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