Welcome back puck heads to another season of NHL and more specifically, another season of NHL DFS. Though the regular campaign has already started, tonight marks the first contests played in North America. We will be going position by position on both DraftKings and FanDuel to identify the top options, some lower-priced values and what stacks we may need to consider.
Stokastic subscribers should be sure to check the Discord throughout the day as there are sure to be lineup changes in this early portion of the season, even with just four teams playing. For non-subscribers, take advantage of our promo (code: POWERPLAY) to get seven days of our premium NHL package for just $7.
With all that out of the way, let’s look at our first multi-game slate of the season.
NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Mika Zibanejad (NYR vs. TB): DraftKings – $6,400 | FanDuel – $8,100
Between trades and injuries, Tampa Bay lost three of their nine regular penalty killers from the 2021-22 season. Gauging early-season special teams is always precarious because of changes made to every team, but the Rangers had one of the top power plays a year ago, and most of their top pieces are returning. Mika Zibanejad had the most shots on the man advantage of any Rangers forward and remains a focal point of New York’s power play.
Kaapo Kakko looks to be starting the year on the top line alongside Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. That trio had very successful ice time together a year ago, with 2.7 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five compared to 2.5 without Kakko. The actual goals scored was lower but in a sample of just over 250 minutes, there can be a lot of shooting percentage noise. What is good to see was them generating more offense and controlling the play, which is something they’ll need to do against a very good Tampa Bay roster.
One issue with Zibanejad is his price on FanDuel. He is the most expensive center by $500 there compared to being the third-most expensive center on DraftKings ($800 less than Steven Stamkos). With that said, our projections have him as comparable in value on either site tonight.
William Karlsson (VGK at LAK): DraftKings – $4,700 | FanDuel – $4,700
It was a tough season for William Karlsson last year, managing only 12 goals in 67 games. He did so while shooting just 8.9%, a five-year low for him and considerably lower than his three-year average of 12.7%. Had he shot that and played a full season, he would have scored over 20 goals. It was also a tough season for most of the Vegas roster, honestly, and they’re a team looking for a big improvement this year.
What is working in his favor in this particular matchup is that he is set to line up on the team’s third line. Going into Los Angeles means facing off against their third line, and the Los Angeles third-line duo of Gabriel Vilardi and Quinton Byfield was under 49% by expected goal share a year ago. They are young players still growing into their game but when looking to attack the Kings lineup, the top two lines are stiff competition. The third line could be much less so and that works in Karlsson’s favor.
Karlsson isn’t a volume shooter and that means we’re relying on goals and assists for fantasy value here. A cheap price and reasonable matchup does bring him into one-off focus for us in tournaments, particularly on FanDuel where his price-to-projection ratio is stronger than on DraftKings.
Winger
Nikita Kucherov (TBL at NYR): DraftKings – $7,400 | FanDuel – $9,500
Right off the top, we can see how much more expensive Nikita Kucherov is on FanDuel compared to DraftKings. The latter sees him take up 17.3% of our salary cap with the former taking up just 14.8%. He will grade out as a slightly better value in our Stokastic projections for that reason but on such a short slate, he has to be in consideration no matter the price here.
Tampa Bay looks to be starting the season with a top line of Kucherov, Stamkos, and Brayden Point. Over the last three seasons in nearly 390 minutes together at five-on-five, this trio has generated 3.4 expected goals per 60 minutes and a whopping 6.4 actual goals. They are the Lightning’s most prolific scorers and are one of the most formidable offensive trios in the league.
There are a couple of matchup issues here, the first being Kakko making the New York top line better defensively. The second is facing Igor Shesterkin, arguably (perhaps likely) the top goalie in the league. But when we get to Shesterkin’s price on DraftKings (more on him later), there could be an opportunity to take Kucherov against what will be a very highly owned Rangers’ backstop. Combine that with his elite linemates and he is very viable in tournaments either by himself or in a full stack.
Viktor Arvidsson (LAK vs. VGK): DraftKings – $5,600 | FanDuel – $5,200
Despite being the sixth-most expensive winger tonight on DraftKings, Viktor Arvidsson is 10th in price over on FanDuel. The shot bonus on DraftKings does matter here and is a factor in his pricing but the fact still remains that Arvidsson is a much lower hit against the salary cap over on FanDuel.
It was a good year of sorts for Arvidsson, who scored 20 goals and averaged nearly 3.5 shots per game in 2021-22. He also shot just 8.8% against a three-year average of 12.5%. Like Karlsson earlier, he was perhaps a bit unlucky in his goal scoring, which prevented him from having a much better season. Even though his ice time has declined as he’s gotten older, he is still a very good volume shooter, which helps his fantasy value.
More than anything, it’s his role on the Kings. He is skating with the same linemates he did a year ago and that second line for Los Angeles was absurdly good, with 3.8 expected goals and 3.6 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Not only that, but he’s set to skate on the top power play unit for Los Angeles, as well. His price and lineup slotting make him a strong option in all formats tonight.
Reilly Smith (VGK vs. LAK): DraftKings – $4,800 | FanDuel – $4,400
Lineups can change quickly at the start of the season, but Reilly Smith is getting a very cushy slotting to start: on the top line with Jack Eichel and on the team’s top power play, as well. Those two did not play much together a year ago but Smith has been good at generating scoring chances for himself and his linemates in recent seasons. Pairing him with a world-class center in Eichel will hopefully provide dividends.
Smith set a career-high in shots per game and shots per minute last season, which is a bit of a boost to his value. Even more importantly is that he’s a good producer, having averaged 53 points every 82 games for the last three years. That is without much of a power play role, too, as just 17 of his 117 points came with the man advantage. If he continues to skate with Eichel on the top line/top power play, his price should only rise from here. He’s one of our best FanDuel winger values for tonight in part because of this low cost.
Defence
Drew Doughty (LAK vs. VGK): DraftKings – $5,000 | FanDuel – $6,300
It is fair to wonder how much ice time Drew Doughty will get between the Kings having a full blue line (they had a lot of injuries last season, eventually including Doughty himself) and him already losing ice time compared to the year before. But the improved Kings roster and process saw him land 2.5 shots per game, a four-year high. His price on DraftKings is very reasonable even if his price on FanDuel is a bit higher. The Kings are facing a rookie goalie in Logan Thompson, who grades out as a top-five value on both sites for us tonight.
The Vegas penalty kill was bottom-10 a year ago by most metrics, though it’s fair to wonder how much improvement there could be with a healthy roster. All the same, Doughty will get heavy offensive minutes for Los Angeles, making him viable on at least one site tonight.
Erik Cernak (TBL at NYR): DraftKings – $2,700 | FanDuel – $3,900
With Ian Cole suspended, Zach Bogosian injured and the trade of Ryan McDonagh, there should be plenty of minutes early in the season for Erik Cernak. He was closer to 19 minutes a game a year ago but the blue line shuffling from Tampa Bay should mean easily over 20 minutes for the rearguard this evening. When looking for a punt option on the blue line, our projections have Cernak as among the best for tonight’s slate on DraftKings.
Goalie
Igor Shesterkin (NYR vs. TBL): DraftKings – $6,900 | FanDuel – $8,700
To be sure, facing Tampa Bay is not a great matchup. They were in the middle of the league by shot volume a year ago but seventh by goals scored per minute. The discrepancy is because of all the top offensive talent they have, and a lack of shot quantity is an issue when playing goalies in DFS.
However, we just have to look at Shesterkin’s price on DraftKings. He is the cheapest goalie on this slate and is the reigning Vezina Trophy winner as the league’s top goalie. King Igor could very well be the top goalie in the world and at that price on DraftKings, it’s hard to look elsewhere.
For those looking to a cheaper option on FanDuel, DFSers should consider Vegas’s Thompson ($7,500). He is a rookie but played well in 19 games last season and has had two very good years in the minor league AHL. Los Angeles was top five in shot volume a year ago and that could bode well for a big tournament score from Thompson, provided he doesn’t get shelled.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
LAK2: Moore-Danault-Arvidsson
As mentioned in the section on Arvidsson, this trio for Los Angeles was elite a year ago. Their shot generation means that there is not a need to necessarily score four goals to have a lot of value, particularly on DraftKings. That shot-taking ability makes them a bit more expensive on that site and we have them with much lower ownership than on FanDuel for that reason. What could make the matchup even better is if they’re sent out against the Eichel line from Vegas, which could struggle defensively with Phil Kessel skating on the wing.
NYRPP: Kreider-Zibanejad-Panarin
On shorter slates like this, duplicating lineups is very possible. One way to avoid that is to do some broken stacking, like a power play. Discussed in the Zibanejad section was how good the New York power play was a year ago and the hope is the changes to Tampa Bay’s penalty kill causes early issues for them. All five guys are in play for the Rangers, including Vincent Trocheck and Adam Fox, but the three forwards in the headline are the focal points up front.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
