This Monday night features a seven-game MLB slate with not a lot of aces on the mound, making these strikeout props very intriguing. Tonight’s Prop Party Parlay features up to FIVE Player Prop bets that have the best chance to win based on Stokastic’s simulations. Don’t feel obligated to bet all five props if one of these below is too risky for your liking. The prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community, and Alex “Awesemo” Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. For this piece, we will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 8/8
Aaron Judge O/U 0.5 Home Runs | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
After being the first team to 70 wins this season, the Yankees have sputtered a little bit, losing five straight games. They still lead the AL East by nearly double digits, so there isn’t much to worry about right now. Yankees superstar Aaron Judge is the leading candidate for AL MVP, and he leads the league in home runs with 43. Judge has a career-high .368 ISO, .439 wOBA, 26.1% barrel percentage and a .301 batting average. Betting the under on home runs is almost always profitable, but this prop is a little risky given how frequently Judge hits a long ball. During the Yankees’ losing streak, Judge has zero home runs, and now he gets a matchup against Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert, who has a respectable 1.12 HR/9 this season. Gilbert has only allowed a 7.3% barrel percentage, making this a tough spot for Judge to get ahold of one.
Best MLB Pick Today: Aaron Judge UNDER 0.5 Home Runs (-225)
Keegan Thompson O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The two worst teams in the National League are playing six of their next nine games against each other. The Chicago Cubs will put Keegan Thompson on the mound against the league cellar dweller Washington Nationals, who were just swept by the Phillies while being outscored 36-12 through four games. This is a great matchup for Thompson, who is a heavy favorite to strike out over 3.5 batters tonight. Thompson leads the Cubs in wins with eight, and he is the only pitcher in the starting rotation with a winning record. With a respectable 21.2% strikeout rate, Thompson has gone well over this prop line in five of his last eight starts. His results are extremely boom or bust. In the five games Thompson went over this prop line, he averaged 7.8 strikeouts per game, compared to 1.7 strikeouts per game in the three outings where he got shelled. Stokastic’s MLB Model has Thompson projected for 4.9 strikeouts in this matchup, which is well over the 3.5 prop line.
Best MLB Pick Today: Keegan Thompson OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-175)
Jose Suarez O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Angels southpaw Jose Suarez has a long history of bouncing from the minor leagues to the major leagues. Despite having arguably two of the best players in baseball, the Angels find themselves once again well out of the playoff picture. Suarez will get a chance to face the Athletics for the second time in a week. In his previous outing, Suarez allowed zero earned runs and struck out five batters over the course of five innings. This line is going to be very close, as Suarez has gone under in three of his last five starts. The Athletics rank eighth in strikeout rate and are the only team worse than the Angels in the AL West. A 1.48 WHIP and a 4.55 ERA are not great numbers for Suarez, who is an underdog in this matchup. Stokastic projects Suarez for 4.2 strikeouts and an xWin rate of 60% on the under. Trust the projections in this matchup.
Best MLB Pick Today: Jose Suarez UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-105)
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Blake Snell O/U 7.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Blake Snell seems to be the ace on tonight’s slate, at least when it comes to strikeout rate. Despite only 14 starts this season, Snell has put together another strong year for the Padres. He has above a 30% strikeout rate for the fifth straight season. There are games when Snell goes absolutely nuclear and gets double-digit strikeouts, but the favorite for this prop is the under on 7.5, likely due to the matchup against the Giants, who rank fourth in the league in ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Snell has gone under 7.5 strikeouts in 10 of his 13 starts, but in his lone matchup against the Giants, he recorded 11 strikeouts in six innings. Eight strikeouts are a lot for one outing, but Snell can rack them up in a hurry. The hope is that the pesky Giants can make contact against one of the top left-handed pitchers in the league.
Best MLB Pick Today: Blake Snell UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Justin Dunn O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The only prop that is coming in at even-money on this parlay is Justin Dunn over 3.5 strikeouts. Dunn will be making his Reds debut against the organization that originally selected him in the first round of the 2016 first-year player draft. Dunn hasn’t been great in Triple-A, recording a 6.92 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP across 26 innings over his seven starts. He was last seen in the major leagues with the Mariners, where he started for three straight years from 2019 to 2021. In Dunn’s most recent year, he finished with a 22.5% strikeout rate in 11 starts. There is no doubt this is an extremely risky spot, as the Mets are implied for a slate-high six runs and are ridiculous -335 favorites. This is another prop to trust the projections, as Stokastic has Dunn projected for 3.8 strikeouts in this spot to round out the Prop Party Parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Justin Dunn OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)
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