Fresh off the Daytona 500, NASCAR heads out west for it’s first trip to Fontana since 2020. Auto Club is a large two mile track with an abrasive surface, meaning tire wear is going to be a major factor on Sunday. Qualifying and practice on Saturday afternoon showed drivers will be facing an uphill battle on Sunday as far as keeping it clean as we saw numerous big name drivers take a spin during both sessions. This has led to an unorthodox starting grid compared to most weeks, which presents an interesting challenge for NASCAR DFS players this weekend. Let’s dive into how we should approach this slate from a tournament perspective to help gain leverage on the field.
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Best Wise Power 400 NASCAR DFS Tournament & GPP Fantasy Picks
Heading into the week, I’ve been planning on writing that this is no longer superspeedway racing and we must get the stack the back strategy out of our heads. After the events that followed in practice and qualifying on Saturday, that same strategy has now come back in play. Many drivers were not able to keep it together on track and if this happens in the race with cars bunched together, there could be some carnage. We also have many very good and solid drivers starting in the back of the pack and with there only being 200 laps, they do look quite appealing. But don’t let this distract you from the potential dominators starting near the front. With a lot of players gravitating towards the back of the pack now, the ownership has certainly cooled on drivers with dominator upside, which we will need some of to take down tournaments.
Top Driver Picks & Projections
Denny Hamlin $10,700 DraftKings $$12,500 FanDuel (4th) – With many people loading up on Kyle Larson and Kevin Harvick up top, the JGR second row of Busch and Hamlin look quite appealing in tournaments. Assuming Kyle Busch has a fair amount of ownership, Hamlin is a fantastic pivot with massive dominator upside, as he was the second best car in terms of speed and dominator points last season at similar tracks. To add on to that, he was also the second fastest car at the high tire venues as well. The great track position to start, will definitely be in his favor on Sunday. Also, keep in mind the two drivers starting in front of him on the front row are Erik Jones and Austin Cindric, who aren’t the prototypical dominator at most tracks.
William Byron $9,600 DraftKings $11,000 FanDuel (10th) – Byron was a tournament staple for me last season as he tends to start close to the front, which makes it hard to play him, but he typically was able to hold his ground and rack up fast laps. He rolls off 10th on Sunday, so we actually get some added in place differential upside this time around. Billy was able to accumulate the second most fast laps last season at similar track types and even dominated and won at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Don’t let his poor track record at Auto Club scare you off some shares in GPP’s.
Mid-Range Driver Picks & Projections
Tyler Reddick $8,400 DraftKings $9,500 FanDuel (11th) – Reddick is sandwiched in-between a lot of elite place differential plays, which will naturally lead to less ownership. But, something I have talked about doing early on in the season is betting on talent with the unknowns of the new car thus far. And Reddick is one of the most talented drivers in the field and performs very well at a few similar track types to Auto Club. The starting spot offers a somewhat risky floor compared to others, but his ceiling is high, as he can certainly grab a top five finish with fast laps.
Austin Cindric $7,600 DraftKings $8,000 FanDuel (1st) – Similar to Reddick, there is a lot of place differential priced right around Cindric, but he has something they don’t have in this race, track position. Cindric earned himself the pole and will lead the field to green on Sunday. Last week’s race winner showed he can hang with the big boys, despite being a rookie. This is a pretty low price on a Penske car, and if he can lead a chunk of the first stage and hang within the top eight for the majority of the race, it could pay off. There is a lot of risk with rostering a rookie in the pole position, but if he can hold off the JGR cars for a while, he could become optimal.
NASCAR Driver Value Picks & Projections
Daniel Suarez $6,100 DraftKings $4,500 FanDuel (15th) – With a lot of the bigger name drivers clogging up the very back, some of our usual place differential cheap drivers are starting a little closer to the front than normal. Suarez is simply under priced this weekend and even though he’s starting a little further up than I’d like him too, he was 7 for 12 in finishing inside the top 15 last season at similar tracks. Stenhouse had faster practice times and is similarly priced to Suarez, so he could very well gain more ownership, especially starting a little further back. I like the pivot to Suarez here as he can be a little more consistent.
