This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | April 5
Note: Oklahoma City has signed a couple of players to 10-day and/or two-way contracts this afternoon. I haven’t seen if they will be available tonight. I am assuming they will not unless I hear otherwise.
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook ($11,100 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) faces a Raptors team that is 2-12 over the last month. In those 14 games, they are 10th in pace and 24th in defensive rating. Bradley Beal is questionable tonight and his status has a big impact on Westbrook. If Beal is active, Westbrook is a good play but he isn’t as strong an option as if Beal sits. Westbrook has averaged 1.78 DraftKings points per minute with a 35.4 percent usage rate, 16.1 percent rebounding rate and 57.9 percent assist rate in six games without Beal this season. He has averaged 27.3 points, 12.2 rebounds and 12.3 assists per game in those games. In 35 games played with Beal, Westbrook has averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.3 percent usage rate, 15.6 percent rebounding rate and 46.1 percent assist rate. He has averaged a triple-double in those games as well with 20.8 points, 10.1 rebounds and 10.2 assists per game, but he will obviously project much higher if Beal sits.
James Harden ($10,900 DraftKings/$11,500 SG FanDuel) will return to the lineup tonight for the Nets in a below average matchup against the Knicks. New York is 27th in pace and fourth in defensive rating over the last month. Harden has played 18 games without Kevin Durant and with Kyrie Irving this season. He has averaged 1.57 DraftKings points per minute and 37.4 minutes per game. He projects slightly lower than Westbrook, but is still one of the highest-upside options on the slate.
Luka Doncic ($10,800 DraftKings/$10,300 FanDuel) is difficult to prioritize over Westbrook and Harden, especially if Beal is out, but he offers a similar ceiling to the more expensive guards. Doncic has played 29 games with Kristaps Porzingis active this season and he has averaged 1.63 DraftKings points per minute and 35.7 minutes per game. He has a very difficult matchup against Utah tonight, who has been one of the best defensive teams in the league this season. Utah has played at a faster pace recently, ranking ninth over the last month, but they have still been the third-most efficient defense over that time. Doncic has small forward eligibility on DraftKings, which does offer us more flexibility.
De’Aaron Fox ($9,200 DraftKings/$9,300 FanDuel) has taken a step forward as a player this season and he gets a great matchup tonight against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota is seventh in pace and 28th in defensive rating over the last month and they have also been one of the fastest teams and least efficient defenses all season long. Fox has averaged 36.1 minutes per game in 15 games played over the last month. In 12 games without Marvin Bagley this season, Fox has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute with a 32 percent usage rate, 4 percent rebounding rate and 27 percent assist rate.
Chris Paul ($8,300 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) is priced up on DraftKings but he is available at an attractive price point on FanDuel as he takes on the Houston Rockets tonight. Houston is one of the worst teams in the NBA and they are 11th in pace and 27th in defensive rating over the last month. Paul has averaged 1.16 FanDuel points per minute and 31.4 minutes per game in 43 games played alongside Devin Booker this season.
Theo Maledon ($5,600 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) is one of eight Oklahoma City players that is active tonight against the Pistons. Despite being a bad NBA team, Detroit has been a middle of the road matchup in DFS as they are 16th in defensive rating and 25th in pace over the last month. This game has the lowest total on the slate tonight. Maledon should play at least 33 or 34 minutes, however, and he is reasonably priced. In six games without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Al Horford this season, Maledon has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.3 percent usage rate, 8.9 percent rebounding rate and 15.5 percent assist rate.
Jordan McLaughlin ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) had a big game in his start on Saturday and he is likely to start again tonight against the Kings as Ricky Rubio, D’Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley are all doubtful. McLaughlin played 41.7 minutes against the Sixers on Saturday, and while it’s unlikely we see that many minutes again tonight, it is likely that McLaughlin gives us at least 34 minutes tonight in a good matchup with Sacramento. McLaughlin has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute in 126 minutes alongside Karl-Anthony Towns without Rubio, Russell or Beasley on the floor this season.
Killian Hayes ($3,100 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) played 20 minutes against the Knicks on Saturday in his first game action since Jan. 4. I expect that we see similar playing time from Hayes tonight, but it is important to keep in mind that the only thing the Pistons should care about at this point in the season is developing their young players. I think that Hayes’ playing time will increase as soon as he is physically able to play more minutes and we won’t know when that is until it happens. Hayes has only averaged 0.52 DraftKings points per minute in eight games this season and I think he is likely to only play 20 to 22 minutes tonight. Still, if you are playing a lot of tournament lineups, it makes sense to have some exposure to him at minimum salary because there is a non-zero chance that he sees increased playing time earlier than expected.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, De’Aaron Fox, Theo Maledon, Jordan McLaughlin
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, De’Aaron Fox, Chris Paul, Theo Maledon, Jordan McLaughlin
[DUSTIN]
Shooting Guard
Fred VanVleet ($8,100 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) is questionable for tonight’s matchup with the Wizards after leaving Toronto’s last game early. If he is able to play, VanVleet stands out as one of the top shooting guard options- especially on FanDuel at only $7,400. VanVleet has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in nine games without Kyle Lowry and with Pascal Siakam this season and he gets a great matchup tonight against the Wizards.
Tyrese Haliburton ($6,500 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute and 32.2 minutes per game in 12 games started with Fox active and Bagley inactive this season. He should be able to produce at an above-average rate tonight against a Minnesota team that allows an above-average number of possessions and is one of the least efficient defenses in the league.
Hamidou Diallo ($5,200 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) played 24.5 minutes off the bench in Detroit’s last game. His playing time is volatile as the Pistons don’t really have a consistent rotation right now, but Diallo is one of the players that they are likely to prioritize over the remainder of the season. Diallo has been a productive fantasy producer when he has been on the floor this season. He has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute over 36 total games between the Thunder and the Pistons and 1.11 DraftKings points per minute in his four games with Detroit.
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk ($5,200 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) is a viable option on DraftKings as he should play a lot of minutes tonight and he is one of the most mispriced players on FanDuel. Mykhailiuk has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute with a 20.6 percent usage rate in nine games with Oklahoma City this season. He doesn’t contribute much outside of scoring, and he doesn’t have a particularly high usage rate, but it is likely that we get at least 32 to 34 minutes from Mykhailiuk tonight.
Josh Jackson ($4,900 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) is another volatile member of the Detroit Pistons. Detroit doesn’t seem enamored with Jackson, but he has been in the starting lineup for the last couple of games. I expect that he will remain in the lineup with Rodney McGruder and Wayne Ellington out tonight. A start doesn’t guarantee substantial minutes for Jackson, but it does at least give him an opportunity to play well and stay on the floor. He played 23 minutes in three quarters of a blowout loss to the Knicks last game and he played 28.5 minutes in Detroit’s blowout win over the Wizards in their previous game. Jackson is a productive fantasy producer, averaging 1 DraftKings point per minute in 23 games without Blake Griffin or Derrick Rose this season, so it is just a matter of how many minutes he is allowed to play.
Ty Jerome ($4,300 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute and 25.6 minutes per game in 16 games with Oklahoma City this season. He is likely to approach 30 minutes tonight as the Thunder only have eight active players. Jerome isn’t a priority, assuming he comes off the bench, but he does offer upside at a cheap price tag. He is more valuable on DraftKings than FanDuel since he is more expensive than Mykhailiuk on FanDuel.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet (Q), Anthony Edwards, Svi Mykhailiuk, Ty Jerome
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet (Q), Tyrese Haliburton, Svi Mykhailiuk
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Small Forward
Anthony Edwards ($ 7,600 PG/SG DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) has played 108 minutes alongside Towns without Russell, Beasley or Rubio on the floor this season. Edwards has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over that sample with a 31.2 percent usage rate. In 13 total games without Russell or Beasley (ignoring Rubio), Edwards has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.3 percent usage rate and 11.0 percent assist rate. He is a scoring dependent player so he has a relatively low floor for his salary, but his 30-plus percent usage rate gives him a very high ceiling in a good matchup as well.
Kevin Porter Jr. ($7,300 PG/SG DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) was extremely bad in his game against the Pelicans last night. He still played about 32 minutes, however, and we have seen that he has a very high ceiling when he is playing without John Wall and Victor Oladipo. In five games without them this season, Porter has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.3 percent usage rate and 35.8 percent assist rate. He has also averaged 33.4 minutes per game. There are going to be some growing pains with Porter as he is still very inexperienced, but he is a talented player and has a very high ceiling as one of the main pieces of Houston’s offense right now.
O.G. Anunoby ($7,200 PF/C DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) gets one of the best matchups possible as he faces the Washington Wizards. Washington is 23rd in defensive rating over the last month and they have been the fastest team in the league just about all season long. Anunoby has played very well lately and the Raptors will be short-handed once again. He has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute in nine games without Lowry this season. In those games, Anunoby has a 22.3 percent usage rate compared to 16.7 percent in 22 games played with Lowry active.
Buddy Hield ($5,900 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) has been relatively disappointing as a DFS option this season, but he is inexpensive and has a great matchup against Minnesota. He is also a small forward, which is one of the weakest positions on the slate. Hield has averaged 34.4 minutes per game over the last month. He has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute with a 20.6 percent usage rate and 12.5 percent assist rate in 49 games played with Fox active this season.
Mikal Bridges ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) is an average fantasy producer. He has produced 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in 43 games played with Paul and Booker active this season. He has also averaged 32.2 minutes per game over the last month, which is enough to make him a viable point-per-dollar option in a favorable matchup against the Rockets.
Kenrich Williams ($5,100 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) is a candidate to start tonight with Isaiah Roby out for Oklahoma City. Williams has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute in six games without Gilgeous-Alexander and Horford this season. He only has a 16.2 percent usage rate in those games, but he has contributed in other areas as well with a 9.7 percent rebounding rate and 17.6 percent assist rate. Williams is expensive enough that he isn’t the most exciting option, but at a relatively weak position, he still offers some value.
Saddiq Bey ($5,100 DraftKings/$4,400 FanDuel) is another of Detroit’s young players that should see extended playing time for the rest of the season. Bey has started 26 games without Rose or Griffin this season and he has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute in 30.1 minutes per game. We should expect similar production tonight, making Bey a decent value at his current price tag.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Buddy Hield, Mikal Bridges, Kenrich Williams
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Anthony Edwards, O.G. Anunoby, Kevin Porter, Buddy Hield, Saddiq Bey
[JOINMLB+]
Power Forward
Julius Randle ($9,600 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) has been excellent this season but he is also expensive. Randle has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.2 percent usage rate, 14.5 percent rebounding rate and 22.4 percent assist rate in 10 games with Rose and Elfrid Payton active this season. Randle is also second to Harden with an average of 38 minutes per game over the last month. Randle is more of a luxury than a necessity at his price tag but there is certainly nothing wrong with rostering him if he fits into your lineup.
Pascal Siakam ($8,500 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) looks like a priority at power forward again tonight against the Wizards. The Raptors will be without Lowry and they could also be without Fred VanVleet. In nine games without Lowry this season, Siakam has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute. He has a 23.4 percent usage rate, 12.1 percent rebounding rate and 26 percent assist rate and has averaged 36.7 minutes per game in those games. In 60 minutes without Lowry, Norman Powell or VanVleet on the floor this season, Siakam has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.2 percent usage rate, 13.1 percent rebounding rate and 31.3 percent assist rate.
Jerami Grant ($7,200 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) seems to still have a relatively consistent role in Detroit’s rotation even as they tank to close the season. We aren’t seeing the 36 and 37 minute games from Grant as frequently as we were earlier in the season, but we can still expect 32 to 34 minutes tonight. He has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute in 23 games without Rose or Griffin this season and he has an especially favorable price tag on FanDuel.
Harrison Barnes ($6,300 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) is fourth in the NBA in playing time over the last month with 36.4 minutes per game. He has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute in 47 games this season and his rebounding rate increases from 10.2 percent overall to 11.8 percent in games played without Bagley. His overall production in those games hasn’t benefitted, but it could just be a matter of time.
Aleksej Pokusevski ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) has been playing a lot of minutes at the three lately as the Thunder have used big lineups that have him playing alongside Roby and Moses Brown. Roby is out tonight, so Pokusevski should slide down to the four. This typically means more productive fantasy production for most players. That has been the case for Pokusevski so far this season. He has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute alongside Roby and Horford and 0.78 DraftKings points per minute alongside Roby and Brown. Alongside Horford without Roby, Pokusevski has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute and alongside Brown without Roby he has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute. All (or most depending on if Tony Bradley plays alongside Brown) of his minutes tonight should come at the four instead of the three, making him a more productive fantasy option than we have seen in recent games.
Kevin Love ($5,700 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) has been playing limited minutes, but his playing time has been increasing. He played about 24 minutes in Cleveland’s most recent game and he is relatively inexpensive if we are going to get 24 to 26 minutes tonight against San Antonio. Love has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.7 percent usage rate and 15.8 percent rebounding rate in 151 minutes without Andre Drummond, Jarrett Allen, Larry Nance Jr. or Tristan Thompson on the floor since the start of last season.
Naz Reid ($3,300 DraftKings/$3,600 C FanDuel) is a DraftKings large field GPP-only option. He has played more minutes alongside Towns recently, which obviously allows him to play more minutes overall. Minnesota had said a couple of weeks ago that they wanted to play Reid alongside Towns, but then they were slow to implement it. Over Minnesota’s last three games, Towns has averaged 39.2 minutes per game and Reid has averaged 18.6 minutes per game. None of these games were massive blowouts where Reid played a bunch of garbage time, so this means that he has been playing about 10 minutes per game next to Towns. Reid has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in 30 games played with Towns active this season so he can easily outperform his near minimum salary at power forward on DraftKings. Keep in mind that he is extremely risky since there is no guarantee that the ‘Wolves use the same rotation tonight, and 18 minutes is still not much playing time, but it is very difficult to find the kind of upside that Reid offers at this salary on most slates.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Pascal Siakam, Harrison Barnes, Aleksej Pokusevski
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Pascal Siakam, Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes, Aleksej Pokusevski, Isaiah Stewart
Center
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,600 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) has been playing huge minutes recently, as mentioned when talking about Reid. He has averaged 36.2 minutes per game in 14 games over the last month but we could see 40-plus minutes tonight if the game against the Kings is competitive. Towns has averaged 1.45 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.3 percent usage rate, 17.4 percent rebounding rate and 18.4 percent assist rate in 179 minutes without Rubio, Beasley or Russell on the floor this season. He is one of the top plays on the slate.
Rudy Gobert ($7,900 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) has averaged 30.6 minutes per game over the last month, but he is likely to see a few more minutes tonight if the game is competitive. He could also see increased playing time in order to protect the rim against Doncic. Gobert has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute in 49 games this season and offers a high ceiling even though I don’t anticipate mid-range centers making their way into my cash lineup tonight.
Christian Wood ($8,800 DraftKings/$8,000 PF FanDuel) is more appealing on FanDuel than DraftKings as he has power forward eligibility and a cheaper price tag. Wood has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute and 33.8 minutes per game in six games without Harden, Wall or Oladipo this season. He has an unappealing matchup against the Phoenix team that is 15th in pace and fifth in defensive rating over the last month.
Moses Brown ($7,100 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) offers a massive ceiling for his salary but he also has a relatively low floor. He has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute and 28.4 minutes per game in nine starts this season. Brown isn’t as likely as other members of the Thunder to benefit from the fact they only have eight players since his primary back-up, Bradley, is active. Still, we already know that he can produce a slate-winning performance in about 30 minutes.
Chris Boucher ($5,900 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) and Aron Baynes ($3,300 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) are interesting options tonight depending on the Raptors’ starting lineup. Boucher started their last game and has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute and 25.9 minutes per game in four starts this season. He should be able to have plenty of success against a Washington team that doesn’t defend or rebound well. Baynes could potentially draw the start tonight as Washington typically plays a traditional center for 48 minutes. If he starts, he will still be an extremely risky option since the Raptors can turn to Boucher or Siakam at the five whenever they want to. Still, a near minimum salary starter at low ownership against the Wizards always has some appeal. Boucher is the more exciting option of the two, however, and I am hoping that he starts again tonight.
Isaiah Stewart ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,700 PF FanDuel) is one of the clear top values tonight with Mason Plumlee and Jahlil Okafor sidelined. Stewart is one of the young players that the Pistons should be looking to develop and that appears to be the case tonight with Plumlee resting. Stewart has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute and 26.7 minutes per game in two starts this season. Overall, he has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute over his 29 games played. We should see 30-plus minutes from Stewart tonight barring foul trouble or injury.
Tony Bradley ($3,500 DraftKings/$4,900 PF FanDuel) isn’t affordable on FanDuel but he is worth a look in large field tournaments on DraftKings. He is likely to get 18 to 20 minutes behind Brown, but he could also play a few minutes alongside him with the Thunder short-handed. Bradley has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute and 20.3 minutes per game in four games with Oklahoma City and he has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute overall this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Karl-Anthony Towns, Isaiah Stewart
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Karl-Anthony Towns, Chris Boucher (if starting)
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