Wednesday’s midweek NBA DFS brings a monster 11-game slate to the table ahead of the All-Star break. With 22 teams in action, combinations of every imaginable type are viable on this slate, and there are more than a handful of extreme value plays on the board already. Getting to a strong mix of stars and significant values, while focusing on creating player combinations that have a higher probability of being unique is the key to accessing the top 1% of standings on a slate such as this. The slate features a pair of games carrying totals above 230 points, with the Kings vs Bulls game at 232.5 and the Rockets vs Suns at a 234-point game total. Six other games on the slate are totaled in the mid-to-high 220s, creating a large pool of potentially high fantasy basketball scores on both sites.
This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With 11 games on the slate, this article will focus on the top overall plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.
NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups
These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Aaron Wiggins: DraftKings $3,000 | FanDuel $3,600
Easily one of the top value plays on both sites, Thunder guard Aaron Wiggins will be extremely popular on both sides of the NBA DFS industry this evening. The backup is projected to step into starter’s minutes once again, after seeing 34 in the team’s most recent outing. Wiggins is projected for a 30.4-minute night in Awesemo’s early slate numbers, which should be ample time for him to deliver on his extremely low salary on both sites despite just 0.67 fantasy points per minute on the average this season. In the most recent 34-minute outing, Wiggins managed only 13.1 FanDuel points, which would fall far short of what is required on an 11-game slate. Still, with plenty of playing time expected and a price at or near the minimum, there is room to roster even an over-owned Wiggins on this slate, particularly on DraftKings, where he is one of the most frequently optimal players on the entire slate.
On the FanDuel slate, Wiggins checks in $100 above the minimum salary as a shooting guard option. He lands in the optimal lineup in 15.8% of simulated slates, ranking him ninth overall and fifth among eligible shooting guards. With players including Dejounte Murray, Josh Giddey, Anfernee Simons, and DeMar DeRozan representing the options ahead of him in the category, it is easy to see why Wiggins slips in optimal lineup appearances in spite of his extreme value pricing. The low per-minute producer is projected for a 23.03-point median projection and he leaps to third overall with a 32.57% boom score probability. That rate of hitting his required ceiling score ranks Wiggins first among shooting guards, which is where he reclaims some of his comparative upside against his more expensive peers. Wiggins is projected to land in the public’s lineup at a 34.7% rate, however, a mark that could seemingly climb as lock approaches. As things stand, that would cast Wiggins at a -18.9 leverage score. The price is worth including it makes Wiggins a strong building block regardless of his popularity, but his low raw scoring limitations may serve as a blocker with more frequently optimal players at his position. With value plays at other positions, and the potential for more to emerge as the afternoon turns to the evening, popularity could be more of an issue.
On the DraftKings slate Wiggins has eligibility at both the shooting guard and small forward positions, and he stands as the most frequently optimal player at any position. Wiggins lands in the top lineup in 23.5% of simulated slates at his flat minimum price and positional flexibility, changing the nature of the play against his extreme popularity. The flexible value player is projected to be included in a massive 47.3% of the public’s lineups, but he is worthwhile on the site when compared to the top options. Wiggins is projected for a 23.5-point median score but he has an excellent 48.73% boom score probability that is also the slate-leading mark. Despite his -23.8 leverage score, it seems to make sense to include Wiggins in lineups as a building block, while focusing on differentiation among the top players or mid-range filler options, where there is plenty of positive leverage available. Wiggins has a boom score probability that stands 21 percentage points above the next-highest shooting guard option, Derrick White at 27.79%, and 17 percentage points above Bruce Brown, the second-most frequently optimal player with small forward eligibility. The minimum price is a potential difference-maker on this slate, Wiggins’ probability metrics are worth the weight of negative leverage.
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Clint Capela: DraftKings $5,300 | FanDuel $6,300
With a slate that is evolving rapidly in the afternoon, Atlanta center Clint Capela has risen to the top of the board by optimal lineup appearance rate on one site, where his value-tier salary is pushing his probability metrics, while he looks like a somewhat neglected mid-range option across town. He has contributed an average rate of 1.17 fantasy points per minute this season, though he has slipped to just 0.95 per minute over the team’s three most recent games. Capela has a 57.9% true shooting percentage with a 20.9% rebounding rate, and he averages 2.6 stocks per-36 minutes. Capela is too cheap and he comes up as a strong play despite center-only eligibility on both sites tonight. In his most recent game, Capela put up a disappointing 21.9 FanDuel points in 31 minutes. He should be expected to do far more at his low price on tonight’s slate.
On FanDuel, Capela is a strong mix-in option who lands in the optimal lineup in 12.4% of simulated slates. The center ranks 17th overall by optimal lineup rate on the blue site, falling in behind only Wendell Carter Jr. and superstar Nikola Jokic among eligible centers. Carter can be rostered as a power forward alongside either of the excellent center-only plays, but there is an obvious opportunity cost in leaving Jokic on the shelf in favor of Capela when it comes to raw scoring potential. The Nuggets star big man is projected for a 54.77-point median FanDuel score, compared to Capela who comes in precisely 20 points lower. Capela climbs above his star counterpart by boom score probability, however. He has a 34.74% mark compared to Jokic’s also-strong 30.04% from a much higher salary tier. Among players from all positions, Capela ranks fourth by boom score probability, drawing out the quality upside available in the play. The 34.64% boom score rate carried by Orlando center-only option Mo Bamba warrants mention in the same breath, however, Bamba is a compelling option himself, coming in at a 5.8 leverage score and just 3.3% public popularity. Capela is also projected to land in 10.9% of the field’s lineups, leaving him at a targetable 1.5 leverage score. Both low-cost centers should be rostered ahead of the field, in a mix with Jokic as the top pay-up option on the board, they all make for playable approaches to lineup construction on the blue site tonight.
For a mere $5,300 on the DraftKings slate, Capela is one of the top overall options at any position. He lands in the optimal lineup in 22.6% of simulated slates, making him the top overall option at any position, though his popularity is outpacing his probability mark on this site. Capela will be owned by 28.7% of the public, but his appeal comes from a strong 45.63% boom score probability and a 34.2-point median projection for the low cost. The center is simply underpriced on the site, no point-per-minute fantasy player at a position like center should be this inexpensive, Capela should be rostered aggressively on DraftKings, regardless of his -6.1 leverage score on the site. The Hawks big man is 10 percentage points ahead of the second-most frequently optimal center, Thunder value play Isaiah Roby, and he lands 13 percentage points ahead of the $12,400 Jokic on the site. For more than double the price, Jokic is not nearly the comparative point as he is on FanDuel. Capela is an excellent jumping-off point in lineup construction tonight.
Tyrese Haliburton: DraftKings $8,400 | FanDuel $9,300
Newly acquired guard Tyrese Haliburton has averaged 1.16 fantasy points per minute since arriving in the Pacers’ rotation. That mark is a jump from 1.02 per minute he produced on average in his former situation. He has seen his usage climb slightly from 17.7% to 19.4% since joining his new team, creating more opportunities for the guard to contribute to fantasy point totals. Haliburton has also flashed an improved assist percentage, climbing to 34.5% from his season-long average of 32.2%. With teammate Malcolm Brogdon still ailing, Haliburton is a strong option despite an increasing price.
On the FanDuel slate, Haliburton checks in at a 13.5% optimal lineup appearance rate, making him the 14th-ranked player on the board. He offers flexibility across both guard positions for a newly exorbitant $9,300 price tag that has not diminished his quality. Haliburton ranks sixth at point guard by optimal rate and he is one of the leading leverage plays at 8.2 on the blue site. Haliburton is projected for a minimal 5.3% public popularity. The field is trailing the quality of the probability metrics, seemingly balking at the increased price tag. Haliburton is projected for a 44.22-point median score and he has a 21.64% boom score probability that can be rostered with enthusiasm at his low raw ownership and strong leverage score.
The guard drops in price and maintains his multi-position flexibility on the DraftKings slate. Haliburton pops up in the optimal lineup in 18.6% of Awesemo’s simulations for the site, the fifth-highest ranked player at any position in the category. He contributes a 45.6-point median projection for his fair $8,400 price on the DraftKings slate, helping him climb to a 33.22% boom score probability. The low 12.8% ownership projection that Haliburton is carrying gives him an appealing 5.8 leverage score. Haliburton ranks fourth among eligible guards by both optimal lineup rate and boom score probability, with all three options above him carrying lower median projections at lower costs. In addition to Aaron Wiggins, both of Haliburton’s teammates Lance Stephenson and Buddy Hield are also coming up as highly probable options. As has been the case with recent slates, getting to a mix of the value and mid-range plays available in the Pacers’ rotation is a strong approach to this slate. With flexible positioning among the eligible guards at both spots, Haliburton should be rostered well ahead of the field’s projected rate. Doubling his popularity mark is an easy and seemingly sharp play as things stand in the early afternoon.
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