The Wednesday NBA DFS slate features six games with a pair of highly targetable contests totaled above 235 points. The board in Vegas has the Bulls vs Hornets game carrying a slate-leading 236.5-point total, while the matchup between the Timberwolves and Kings that starts nearly two hours later is at a 235-point game total. The Bulls are favored by just two points over the Hornets in their game, while the Timberwolves are big 10-point favorites in their game, creating a bit more uncertainty around potential fourth-quarter rotations in a blowout. While this is not something we want to worry too much over, there is the consideration when looking at the two most highly totaled games side by side. In addition to the two high totals, the final two games of the night are at 223.5 and 224.5, with the Lakers, Trail Blazers, Warriors, and Jazz all offering compelling options for the night’s final two games. The major outlier on the Vegas board is the ridiculously low 204-point total in the Raptors vs Thunder game. There could easily be valuable DFS pieces in that contest, but with a total that falls 20 points below the average contest on the slate, there is simply less overall fantasy point scoring upside available in most outcomes. Getting to some of those players in smart distributions across 150 lineups is fine, but overloading on that game seems like a misstep. A strong blend of high probability options who are also pulling efficient ownership or, better, positive leverage marks, should make up the majority of lineups for NBA DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With six games on the slate, this article will focus on a variety of the top overall plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.
Awesemo’s very own Josh Engleman will be following the NBA Trade Deadline LIVE, breaking down all of the Ben Simmons and James Harden trade rumors and all of the trades across the league on Thursday.
NBA DFS Optimizer Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups
These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.
Kelly Oubre Jr.: DraftKings $5,600 — SG/SF | FanDuel $6,100 — SF/SG
After the unfortunate injury to Gordon Hayward that anyone who played NBA DFS two days ago should be well aware of, the Hornets have several major pieces on the board today. The team is playing in the game with the highest total of the night, and the roster features a few options that are mispriced for the role and potential upside that they will have in the situation. LaMelo Ball is more than 30% optimal on DraftKings and 40% optimal on FanDuel. Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, and Miles Bridges all also fall into the group of players at or near the top of the board by optimal lineup appearance rate on both sites tonight. A mix of Hornets is going to be a major part of most quality NBA DFS lineup constructions, based on how today’s slate is currently aligned. From a very fair mid-range price, wing Kelly Oubre Jr. is another strong option from this squad. Oubre tops the board on DraftKings, and he is among the most frequently optimal players on the blue site as well. He offers multi-position eligibility and 0.96 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, and he has been at a 0.98 rate in games without Hayward and teammate Cody Martin this season. Oubre is a popular but high-quality target for lineup shares on both sites tonight.
The Hornets’ wing has a 31.8% optimal lineup appearance rate on the FanDuel slate, making the $6,100 option the fourth-most frequently optimal player at any position on the blue site. The top of the board is dominated by Hornets players. The three options above Oubre by optimal lineup rate are all Hornets mentioned in the paragraph above, while Washington drops in two spots below Oubre with a 27.7% optimal lineup rate. Oubre is also a strong contender among his teammates when looking at the boom score probability. He is the least expensive member of the relevant Hornets, which pushes his boom score mark to 33.14%, again ahead of Washington but behind the other top Charlotte options. Oubre is carrying a 33.78-point median projection on FanDuel, and he offers eligibility at both shooting guard and small forward, providing excellent flexibility that some of his teammates lack. Ultimately, Oubre is owned at an efficient 30.3% clip, but that mark leaves a 1.5 leverage score on an option that would be easily playable even at negative leverage in this situation on this slate. Oubre warrants strong consideration for exposure at or near the level at which the field is getting to him, if not beyond it on the FanDuel slate tonight.
As the slate leader by optimal lineup appearance rate, Oubre is an easy option for just $5,600 on the DraftKings slate tonight. The quality veteran fits in at either shooting guard or small forward, giving him five-position flexibility in lineup constructions and helping him land in the optimal construction in 37% of Awesemo’s simulated slates. That mark outpaces LaMelo Ball by nearly 3 percentage points, though Ball’s median projection of 49.1 is nearly 15 fantasy points above Oubre’s for the additional $3,200 in salary. Oubre comes at a fair price that thrusts him to an excellent 43.12% boom score probability, slightly trailing the 43.71% that Ball is carrying to lead the slate. Rostering either Hornets player would be a strong choice on this slate, including them both in a lineup is most certainly viable, if not advised, and most lineups that do not feature multiple Hornets players seem likely to leave an opportunity for NBA DFS point-scoring upside on the table tonight. Oubre is projected to be owned in 33.8% of public lineups, leaving him at a highly appealing 3.2 leverage score. Options of this quality should not be under-rostered to that extent. Sharp gamers will exploit the situation for DraftKings NBA DFS lineups tonight.
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D’Angelo Russell: DraftKings $7,000 — PG/SG | FanDuel $7,400 — SG/PG
Despite being a primary scorer in the game with the second-highest total of the night, Timberwolves guard D’Angelo Russell appears to be trending for low raw ownership and positive leverage across the industry tonight. Russell has averaged a 1.10 per-minute mark on 25.6% usage for the season, down slightly from the 1.15 he put up on heavier 28.3% usage last season. Russell delivers a 53.8% true shooting percentage with a 32.5% assist rate, and he has popped to a 1.30 per-minute mark in 27 minutes a night over the team’s three most recent games. Russell posted 27.7 FanDuel points in 24 minutes in the team’s most recent game, and he is projected for a 31-minute outing this evening, making him a viable option on both sites.
On the DraftKings slate, Russell ranks 10th overall with a 17.8% optimal lineup appearance rate, falling in behind seemingly everyone who has ever played for the Hornets or Trail Blazers. The Timberwolves veteran costs $7,000 on the slate and he fits in at either guard position, creating potentially important flexibility of construction in DraftKings lineups. Russell is projected for a 36.6-point median night and he has a 25.37% boom score probability on the slate, also the 10th-highest mark on the board. Among the top-10 options in both categories, Russell is pulling in the lowest raw ownership projection at just 16.6%. He has a targetable 1.3 leverage score that can be exploited for upside on the slate. With attention largely elsewhere, the potentially high-scoring game script and situation for Russell could help him reach a slate-relevant ceiling score. He should be included in more lineups than the exposure that the public is currently reaching.
Russell is in the optimal lineup in 13.7% of Awesemo’s simulated slates for the blue site, but he will be owned by an even smaller slice of the public on this site. The guard is projected for just 11.8% popularity at his $7,400 despite eligibility at either guard position. Russell’s optimal lineup appearance rate seems paltry by comparison to the loaded marks atop the board, but after the Hornets and Trail Blazers, most of the other options are optimal in fewer than 20% of simulations, leveling the field for the majority of options on the slate. Russell’s 13.7% stands 21st overall. He also falls 10 percentage points behind teammate Anthony Edwards on the site despite similar positioning and the same price tag. Edwards is at a 16.3% ownership projection, an excellent 6.8 leverage score on the FanDuel slate, a 15.94% boom score probability and a 34.77-point median projection at the fair mid-range price. With quality probability metrics and an appreciable lack of public ownership, Russell can be targeted for at or around double the field’s ownership with ease on the FanDuel NBA DFS slate.
Jusuf Nurkic: DraftKings $8,200 — C | FanDuel $7,700 — C
After a day of major shakeups, the Trail Blazers were a major source of value and upside on the Tuesday slate and little has changed a day later. The team is in the midst of making follow-up moves that are creating further changes to the roster, acquiring Joe Ingles and Elijah Hughes in a three-way deal that flips Tomas Satoransky to San Antonio and Nickeil Alexander-Walker to Utah. The thin Portland rotation is going to have just eight or nine living human bodies to put on the court tonight, regardless of their NBA acumen. The team features unappealing options like Greg Brown and Keljin Blevins projected for non-zero minutes this evening, while Ben McLemore and Trendon Watford are potentially major pieces of their plans once again. With all the clutter on the table, it could easily pay to focus simply on the established talent, such as it is, on the roster. This leads primarily to Anfernee Simons and, more importantly, center Jusuf Nurkic. He has posted a 1.24 per-minute mark over the average situation this year, down slightly from the 1.33 he put up on slightly less usage last year, but still typically very productive for the salary. Nurkic posted a 40.2-point FanDuel night in 34 minutes last night and he is projected for similar playing time and production this evening.
The Portland big man costs $8,200 on the DraftKings slate, where he can be rostered at either center or the utility spot. Nurkic comes in with a 14.1% optimal lineup appearance rate, making him the 14th-most frequently optimal player at any position on the site. Nurkic falls in behind only PJ Washington and value teammate Trendon Watford at the center, making him the top pay-up option at the position. Washington has eligibility at power forward, while Watford can be rostered at the utility position for just $3,100 alongside Nurkic if so desired. The remaining players in the top-15 by optimal lineup appearance rate on the site are eligible at guard or small forward, with limited eligibility at power forward, creating a clear scenario where one can roster inexpensive value guards or highly optimal premium guards, and fill out a roster along either path. Nurkic has a 41.1-point median projection and a 23.73% boom score probability on the DraftKings slate tonight. The public is projected for a 16.6% ownership share, leaving him at a slightly tarnished -2.5 leverage score, but he is easy to include at that mark. Exceeding the field on the Portland big man is a viable approach as well, with limited center options and value already established at other positions. Nurkic is aligned to be a strong option once again this evening.
Nurkic is one of the top options on the FanDuel slate by any metric. He lands in the optimal lineup in 25.9% of simulated slates, the seventh-most frequently optimal player at any position and second at the center spot behind only Washington, who has eligibility at power forward as well. Nurkic is projected for 23.7% public popularity, leaving him at a sharp 2.2 leverage score that can be targeted for added shares despite the higher site-to-site raw ownership on this side of town. Nurkic is projected for a 39.84-point median night and he has an excellent 30.86% boom score probability on the site. With power forward eligibility included for all of the viable center options other than Karl-Anthony Towns and Nikola Vucevic, there is little to worry about in terms of opportunity cost. Splitting shares between Nurkic, Towns, and Vucevic at the pure center position and rostering the other options largely at power forward is a perfectly acceptable approach to this slate. Among the trio of center-only options, Nurkic stands 12 percentage points ahead of Towns’ 13.8% optimal lineup rate and more than 19 ahead of the 6.8% pace at which we find Vucevic as the optimal center. Getting extra shares of Nurkic into FanDuel lineups could be a major piece of potentially slate-winning lineups tonight.
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