NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer Picks Today DraftKings & FanDuel Fantasy Basketball

The massive midweek slate of NBA DFS action brings us a 13-game platter loaded with delectable morsels for lineup construction on DraftKings and FanDuel. The slate includes games of all shapes and sizes, with at least three that are carrying totals in the 230s. The opening contest of the night will see the Nets without Kevin Durant but with Kyrie Irving battling the Wizards in Washington in the game with the second-highest total on the board at 234. That contest is carrying just a -1.5 spread in favor of the home team, so Vegas is expecting a tooth and nail contest that should yield massive upside for fantasy point scoring purposes. The high point of the night comes between the Timberwolves and Hawks, with a 235.5 on the board in another game with just a -1.5 spread. There is an appeal to putting at least a few pieces of these two top-shelf games together in a majority of lineups tonight. The Rockets – Jazz game is the final contest with more than a 230-point total, Utah will be a major source of value on the slate, with star guard Donovan Mitchell in the league’s concussion protocol. The low point of the slate lands at just a 208 between the Raptors and Mavericks in Dallas. Getting to a mix of pieces from the obvious games as well as some of the under-the-radar plays from around the league will be key to lineup building tonight, as will be simply being available for late swapping purposes. The demanding slate will require attention to news before and after lock tonight, following the optimal lineup rates, boom score probabilities, and leverage scores should dictate the approach to building a foundation for good lineup construction across the NBA DFS industry tonight.

This space will always focus on the factors mentioned above, but at times we will call out plays that are over-owned, taking the opportunity to discuss the potential pivots. With 13 games on the slate, this article will focus on several of the top overall plays on the Boom/Bust Tool. As always, the goal is to find players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in the optimal lineup in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS projections and simulations.

NBA DFS Optimizer Picks Tonight for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

These picks are made utilizing the Boom/Bust Tool, specifically analyzing the optimal lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. The optimal lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in the optimal lineup in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, at times we will discuss plays that are outright bad or come at such aggressively negative leverage that they are rendered bad in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

LaMarcus Aldridge: DraftKings — $4,600 — C | FanDuel –$4,400 — C/PF

A potentially underrated piece of the heavily targeted and totaled early game between the Nets and Wizards, veteran forward LaMarcus Aldridge checks in at an affordable price and playable ownership on both sites tonight. Aldridge returned from a two-week absence in the team’s most recent game, playing 23 minutes and delivering 26.5 FanDuel points. The big man has averaged 1.09 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, posting a 22.9-minute per game average. For tonight’s contest, Aldridge is projected for a 27.2-minute night, all of the Nets’ primary players will have more to do while superstar Kevin Durant is sidelined. Aldridge is a quality option who is going under-owned for his cheap pricing across the industry tonight.

On the DraftKings slate, Aldridge ranks fourth overall and first among eligible centers, checking in with a 17.4% optimal lineup appearance rate. Finding him in the top lineup with that much frequency puts him well ahead of the field at his position, but the public is not getting to the play with nearly enough enthusiasm. Aldridge costs just $4,600 but he is pulling in only a 7.6% ownership projection in early numbers. The Brooklyn big is projected for a 29.1-point median score and he is carrying a monster 41.7% boom score probability into the slate, the third-highest mark at any position on DraftKings tonight. Aldridge’s 9.8 leverage score leads all options on the site and makes his value stand out against the field.

On the FanDuel slate, Aldridge comes up with a 26.4% optimal lineup appearance rate in Awesemo’s simulated slates. He has eligibility at both power forward and center and costs just $4,400 on the blue site, making him one of the premium value options on the board. Aldridge is carrying a 29.1-point median projection that is an excellent point-per-dollar mark on its own, and he has a 46.7% boom score probability. With the numbers suggesting that he will hit a ceiling score nearly half the time, the public is not getting to Aldridge nearly enough on this slate. His projected ownership is at a paltry 19.8%, leaving the excellent NBA DFS lineup construction building block with a 6.6 leverage score, the third highest on the slate. Aldridge should be rostered aggressively across the industry unless the popularity numbers change dramatically in later updates.

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John Collins: DraftKings — $7,000 — PF/C | FanDuel — $7,400 — PF/C

Atlanta’s starting center, Clint Capela, will be out once again on Wednesday night, leaving Onyeka Okongwu in the starting lineup and drawing significant attention as a value center on both sites. With all eyes on Okongwu in the frontcourt, starting forward John Collins seems to be undervalued across the industry tonight. Collins is at a reasonable mid-range price on both sites. He produces 1.04 fantasy points per minute across all situations this season, occupying 19.7% of the team’s usage, both numbers slightly down from where they stood last season. Over the team’s three most recent games, Collins has been at a 0.93 per-minute mark, but he posted a 41.4-point FanDuel night in 31 minutes in the most recent outing, and he is easily capable of delivering value for his salary given the 33.7-minute projection tonight.

Collins fits in as either a power forward or center on the FanDuel slate, where he costs $7,400 and has a 37-point median projection tonight. Collins is projected for just 6.7% popularity on the slat, despite a strong projection for the money and a 24% boom score probability. Collins lands in the optimal lineup in 12.3% of simulated slates, the 19th-highest mark on the board among all players and fifth at his eligible positions, but third among positively leveraged players behind only Aldridge and superstar Nikola Jokic. Rostering all three of the big men is possible and a strong potential foundation for a differentiated lineup that carries major upside into FanDuel contests tonight.

With appearances in the optimal lineup in 13.4% of Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings slates, Collins is the ninth-most frequently optimal player at any position. He has eligibility at both the power forward and center spots on the slate, and he ranks behind only Aldridge, Rudy Gobert, and Al Horford at his positions. Collins stands one spot above Okongwu on the DraftKings board, his teammate lands in the optimal lineup 12.9% of the time in simulations. The leverage is strongly in Collins’ favor on this site as well. He is projected for just 11.2% popularity on the slate, leaving him at a 2.2 leverage score that can and should be targeted. The Atlanta forward is projected for a 37.7-point median score and he has a terrific 33.2% boom score probability for his cheap $7,000 price tag. Collins should be included in more lineups than where the public is rostering him, doubling that exposure would be sound.

Mike Conley: DraftKings — $6,000 — PG | FanDuel — $5,700 — PG

The Jazz will have a number of players that will be highly regarded by the public tonight, not the least of which is veteran point guard Mike Conley. With Donovan Mitchell on the shelf, Conley will have more to do in the team’s offense, although his production without his star teammate on the floor this season has slipped in comparison to where he was last year, as discussed on this morning’s Strategy Show. Conley is still a solid option for the price at which we can roster him across the industry, however, but he is also not a secret on a slate with an array of appealing alternatives. Conley checks into tonight’s action averaging 0.98 fantasy points per minute across all situations this year, a rate that has remained steady with Mitchell off the floor this season. Conley is a strong option who is efficiently but not excessively owned by the public on this slate. He can be rostered in shares at or around the field’s ownership on both sites.

The veteran star has a 30% optimal lineup appearance rate on the blue site tonight, making him the most frequently optimal player available on the FanDuel slate. A $5,700 price tag has the point guard popping up with a 46.5% boom score probability against his 34.9-point median projection. The field is going to be rostering Conley on the FanDuel slate, however. He is projected for 33.5% popularity, outpacing the rate at which we find him in the optimal lineup by a slight margin. The point guard is the top option at his position by 6.6 percentage points over the extremely negatively leveraged De’Anthony Melton, though the Memphis value player fits in at either guard spot for just $4,100 and is worth the weight of public exposure. Conley comes in at -3.5 leverage, but that is a playable mark that is neither advantageous nor overly damaging in lineup construction. It will be important, but also easy, to get different at other spots, but Conley’s cheap price and appealing upside should be rostered frequently on FanDuel.

On the DraftKings slate, Conley costs $6,000 and lands in the optimal lineup 19.8% of the time in simulated slates. The situation is similar to where Conley stood on the other site. He also has a -3.5 leverage score on this site, with 23.3% of the public projected to include him in lineups. The point guard has a 36-point median projection and a 45.3% boom score probability, making him the second-most likely player on the slate to hit a ceiling score. He falls in behind Melton in that category on DraftKings. Melton is at a whopping 61.4% boom score probability and 27.4% optimal lineup rate on DraftKings, but he is a -16 leverage play just like he is on FanDuel. Conley’s lower raw ownership at a viable price makes him an appealing target, and both guards can be included in a build with ease. Among Jazz guards, Conley stands above teammate Jordan Clarkson, who has a 21.4% optimal lineup appearance rate but a -12.3 leverage score against his 33.7% ownership. Other Jazz players will have value on the slate as well. Joe Ingles is owned at a rate double that at which we find him optimal, and center Rudy Gobert is similarly popular. Only Conley offers both upside and a reasonably playable leverage score.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.