NBA DFS Picks Projections & Ownership DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

The NBA DFS Deep Dive is our primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. This article’s goal isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections, and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.

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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel | April 24

Guards

Luka Doncic ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel) – Luka’s upside is finally back. After a bit of a cold spell as far as fantasy production is concerned, Doncic has strung together a few strong games in a row. He’s averaging over 60 DraftKings points across his last four games, which comes after a stretch where he went 12 games in a row without scoring 60 or more fantasy points. Luka might also carry an even bigger load tonight than he normally does since Kristaps Porzingis, Josh Richardson and Maxi Kleber are all questionable to play.

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,300 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) – As long as Myles Turner and, more importantly, Domantas Sabonis are out for the Pacers, Brogdon is going to have to carry a bigger workload on offense. He scored 61.75 DraftKings points in the Pacers’ last game and has a usage rate of over 30% across the last three games. The Pacers are entrenched in the thick of the play-in mix, so they can’t afford to give Brogdon any breaks. He played 39 minutes last game and is looking at massive playing time and usage until Indiana gets healthier.

Mike Conley ($7,000 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) – This might seem like a steep price tag for Conley, but it isn’t when considering the matchup and the circumstances. Donovan Mitchell remains out for Utah, and Conley’s numbers are strong with Mitchell off the court. Due to increased duties on the ball without Mitchell, Conley scores 41.55 DraftKings minutes per 36 minutes when Mitchell isn’t on the court. To make this spot even better, the Timberwolves play the third-fastest pace in the league and have the third-worst defensive efficiency.

Jordan Clarkson ($6,500 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) – Words are a valuable resource. To save them, basically, everything I said above applies to Clarkson. The Jazz have a great matchup against Minnesota, and Clarkson benefits from the absence of Mitchell. Clarkson plays extra minutes when he’s out, and his usage rate is a team-best 31.1% when Mitchell is off the court.

Dejounte Murray ($7,200 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) – The Spurs have regularly started to rule players out for rest and injuries. Murray rested in their last game, so he should play today. He could also see an increased workload because DeMar DeRozan is questionable to play with a quad injury which forced him out of the Spurs’ last game. With DeRozan off the court this season, Murray has a 22.9% usage rate and scores 39.06 DraftKings points per 36 minutes. This is also an uptempo matchup for the Spurs against the Pelicans.

Armoni Brooks ($3,800 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) – Brooks started the last couple of games for the Rockets and is likely looking at a massive role tonight. John Wall is out for rest, and Christian Wood is unlikely to play since he’s dealing with an ankle injury. Brooks played over 30 minutes in each of the last two games, and now he’s going to have to play even more minutes with increased usage.

P.J. Dozier ($4,100 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) – The Nuggets are limping to the finish line of the regular season. Jamal Murray is out for the season, and now Denver is also missing Monte Morris as well as Will Barton. Barton played less than a minute and left last night’s game with a hamstring injury. I expect him to miss an extended period of time, which will filter a lot of playing time to Dozier. He played 30 minutes off the bench last night due to all the Nuggets’ injuries.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Malcolm Brogdon, Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Malcolm Brogdon, Jordan Clarkson, P.J. Dozier

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Forwards

Michael Porter Jr. ($8,000 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) – MPJ is a much stronger play on FanDuel than DraftKings. The small forward position is tough to fill on FanDuel and, due to all the injuries mentioned above, Porter is getting thrust into a bigger role. He played 37 minutes with a 24.7% usage rate last night because of the Nuggets’ lack of bodies.

Jimmy Butler ($9,500 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) – The Heat are down bad right now. If the season ended today, they would have to make it through the play-in tournament to make the playoffs. I bet them in last night’s game against the Hawks since Atlanta was missing both Trae Young and Clint Capela, which didn’t work out well for me. Due to the loss, Miami has almost no chance of winning its division, and this team is now desperate for wins. I expect this will mean more playing time and usage for Butler to close the season.

Jae’Sean Tate ($6,100 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) – Tate is one of my most rostered players in my initial builds. This comes with an asterisk, though, because he’s currently listed as questionable to play. As noted above, Wall and Wood are both expected to sit tonight. Somebody is going to have to take shots for the Rockets and, since Tate is normally in the rotation, he’s a primary target if he’s able to play. As is, he’s playing 35 minutes per game over the last couple of contests, and that’s when the Rockets had a healthier roster.

Kenyon Martin Jr. ($3,600 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) – If Tate isn’t able to play, don’t fret. Martin is the next man up as a value play. As is, I have some exposure to Martin, and he would become a core play for me if Tate is out. I expect Martin would start, or at the very least, play close to 30 minutes in a situation where Tate doesn’t play. In addition to all the injuries I have already mentioned with the Rockets, Avery Bradley and Sterling Brown are also questionable to play.

Jerami Grant ($6,700 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) – Like everybody else, Grant is listed on the injury report, but he’s probable. I don’t think there is much risk of him sitting and, when active, he’s playing a full role for the Pistons. We have seen Grant get a lot of days off lately, although there isn’t anything to indicate he’s actually hurt. This is simply a tanking attempt by Detroit. In the last three games he was active for, Grant averaged over 30 minutes with a 32.1% usage rate.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jae’Sean Tate, Jerami Grant

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jae’Sean Tate, Jimmy Butler, Michael Porter Jr.

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($10,900 DraftKings/$11,400 FanDuel) – On a slate loaded with value, we don’t have many options to pay up for. The debate mostly boils down to Jokic vs. Doncic, and while I will likely end up overweight to the field on both of them, Jokic is my preferred option to spend up for. Denver is shorthanded and draws a favorable matchup against a shorthanded Rockets’ squad.

Kelly Olynyk ($6,700 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) – I am really trying not to repeat myself here, but half the Rockets’ team is either questionable or already ruled out. Olynyk is too expensive for me on DraftKings, but he’s one of the best points per dollar plays on FanDuel. For cash games, I think Olynyk is actually the optimal play on FanDuel over Jokic because of how cheap his price is combined with the amount of usage he could get tonight.

Goga Bitadze ($4,100 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) – Goga is the inverse play of Olynyk in terms of the site. He’s a great value on DraftKings and about appropriately priced on FanDuel. The issue here is that Bitadze is currently questionable to play. Since Sabonis and Turner are out, he’s in line to start with big minutes if he can play. Bitadze averages 29.25 DraftKings points as a starter this season which has him as a top value play on DraftKings for me at the moment. If he’s out, Oshae Brissett will have to play all the minutes he can handle.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Goga Bitadze

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kelly Olynyk

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.