This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to catch the Awesemo NBA Daily Fantasy Strategy Show every morning on our Awesemo YouTube Channel to find the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel!
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and me from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | March 30
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook ($10,900 DraftKings/$11,000 FanDuel) had one of the most impressive games ever last night, and he is viable again tonight against the Hornets. Bradley Beal is questionable out for tonight’s game after sitting out last night and leaving the previous game early. If he sits, With him out Westbrook becomes the clear top play on the slate. If he plays, Westbrook is still a strong option as he has averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute and a triple-double in 35 games played with Beal this season.
Trae Young ($9,000 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against the Phoenix Suns. Phoenix has been one of the most efficient defenses all season long and they rank second in defensive rating over the last month. Young has averaged 33.5 minutes per game and 1.29 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.9 percent usage rate and 45.4 percent assist rate in 12 games since the Hawks’ coaching change on March 2nd. Young carries some appeal on this slate just because there are four games and a limited number of options that are capable of scoring 50-plus fantasy points, but right now our Boom/Bust tool suggests Young is slightly over-owned despite the limited options.
Ben Simmons ($8,700 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) will be playing yet another game without Joel Embiid. Simmons has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.7 percent usage rate, 13.5 percent rebounding rate and 33.3 percent assist rate in 12 games without Embiid and with Tobias Harris this season. By comparison, he has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.4 percent usage rate, 12.9 percent rebounding rate and 32.9 percent assist rate in 23 games with Embiid and Harris active. His average production may not increase much, but his ceiling is definitely higher without Embiid on the floor thanks to Simmons’ increased usage. Simmons has a mediocre matchup against the Nuggets, who are 26th in pace over the last month. They are only 22nd in defensive rating, but they also added Aaron Gordon at the trade deadline which is likely to bolster their defense.
Terry Rozier ($7,700 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) gets one of the most favorable matchups possible as he takes on the Washington Wizards. Washington has played at the fastest pace over the last month and they are 21st in defensive rating over that time. Rozier has now played four games without LaMelo Ball and he has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute and 37.3 minutes per game. He grades out as a strong mid-range option in this matchup.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, Terry Rozier
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, Ben Simmons, Terry Rozier
Latest NBA DFS Content
- NBA DFS Late Swap Advice: How to Use Our New Tool to Improve Your Process and Profit
- NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: The Battle of Titans (May 4)
- NBA DFS Picks & Building Blocks: Will There Be Double Elimination? (May 3)
- FanDuel Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From NBA DFS Contest Sims | Paul George (May 3)
- DraftKings Fantasy Basketball Cheat Sheet: Best Picks From NBA DFS Contest Sims | Donovan Mitchell (May 3)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($8,900 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) is questionable tonight against Charlotte. He has played extremely poorly (by his standards) since the All-Star break, averaging only 1.10 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.1 percent usage rate compared to 1.34 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.4 percent usage rate overall this season. My theory is that Beal has been playing through a lingering injury and that seems more likely now that he has missed the last game and a half. If he returns tonight he will be a risky option, but it is a short slate and one of the cheapest price points we have had on Beal this season. My general approach with possible lingering injuries is to assume a player is healthy and that is what I will do tonight with Beal if he is active. The injury situation makes him riskier, but his depressed salary accounts for that and we have no way of knowing how he is feeling before the game. If he plays, I will assume he is healthy enough to produce at his normal level.
With Beal out for tonight’s game, Jerome Robinson ($3,000 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) will likely get another start. Robinson played 20.6 minutes against Indiana last night but he also dealt with foul trouble. He would be a very useful value option if he starts again tonight.
Paul George ($8,600 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) missed last night’s game despite not being on the injury report all day. I am considering him questionable tonight against Orlando. He has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute in 32 games with Kawhi Leonard this season, so he grades out as a strong option if he is active. There is also a greater than zero percent chance that George plays tonight and Leonard sits, since the Clippers haven’t exactly been transparent with their injury reports this season. George has averaged 1.40 DraftKings points per minute in 15 games without Leonard since the start of last season, so there is some extra potential upside in rostering George since we may not get Clippers’ injury news until well after lock. It is probably a good idea to keep a couple of roster spots open if you roster George so that you can optimize your lineups based on their injury news if we don’t have it before lock.
Devonte’ Graham ($6,100 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute and 30.8 minutes per game in his four games without Ball. Graham played about 34 minutes in regulation of his last game, and he should get another 32 to 34 minutes tonight against Washington if the game is competitive. Graham is a viable option on DraftKings but is especially underpriced on FanDuel.
Malik Monk ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) missed Charlotte’s last game but he is probable tonight. He has averaged 25.4 minutes per game in three games without Ball this season. In those three games, Monk has a 29.5 percent usage rate and 19.3 percent assist rate. While I don’t expect his 1.21 DraftKings points per minute to continue over a larger sample, I do think he will continue to be a high-usage option off of the bench. I have no idea why he is more expensive than Graham on FanDuel, but he offers some upside at only $4,900 on DraftKings.
Edit:Â Malik Monk has been ruled out.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal (Q), Paul George (Q), Malik Monk
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal (Q), Paul George (Q), Devonte’ Graham
Small Forward
Kawhi Leonard ($8,800 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel) is very similar to Paul George. Leonard has averaged 1.33 DraftKings points per minute in 32 games with George active this season and 1.57 DraftKings points per minute in 27 games without George since the start of last season. He is a strong option at small forward tonight if George plays and looks even better if George is out. There is some risk here since it is a back-to-back and we could get late news that Leonard is going to sit, but there is also the potential for favorable late news if George is ruled out. As is the case with George, I would feel best about rostering Leonard if I had multiple roster spots open that I can use to optimize my lineup based on injury news. It’s a little bit less important for Leonard, however, since he isn’t the one who missed last night’s game with an injury.
Gordon Hayward ($7,900 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) stands out as a top option at small forward. He has a high floor and a high ceiling for his price tag tonight against the Wizards. Hayward has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute and 34.4 minutes per game overall this season. In his four games without Ball, he has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute, but his rebounding rate has increased from 8.7 percent to 12 percent while his usage and assist rates have stayed about the same. The increase in rebounding could be due to a small sample, but it makes sense for Hayward to grab more rebounds without Ball active since Ball has an 11.1 percent rebounding rate this season. Hayward is one of my favorite small forward options on either site, but especially on FanDuel at $7,000.
Mikal Bridges ($5,800 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel) isn’t exciting, but he has averaged 32.7 minutes per game over the last month and 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season. His matchup against the Hawks isn’t appealing as Atlanta is 13th in defensive rating and 29th in pace since their coaching change, but ample playing time and average per-minute production is enough to make Bridges viable on this slate.
Deni Avdija ($3,700 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) has started Washington’s last two games and played about 27 and 32 minutes. Avdija hasn’t been a strong fantasy producer in his rookie season, but value is scarce right now and there are only four games so it’s possible that not much opens up as we get closer to lock. If that is the case, punting the small forward position and expecting 28 to 30 minutes from Avdija is a decent idea. He has averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute in 19 total starts this season, but only 0.68 DraftKings points per minute in 14 starts alongside Westbrook.
Chandler Hutchison ($3,000 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) deserves a mention as a potential value option as well after he played 25.1 minutes in his Wizards’ debut yesterday. It’s difficult to find minutes for him if Beal and Raul Neto play, but if one or both are out minutes would be available. Hutchison played very well, which kept him on the floor for the final 18 minutes of the game. His playing time would still be volatile if Beal or Neto are out since it is mostly a hot hand situation between Robinson, Garrison Mathews and Hutchison, but Scott Brooks was clearly impressed with him yesterday and it’s not exactly difficult to win a hot hand situation against Robinson and Mathews.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard, Gordon Hayward, Deni Avdija
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Gordon Hayward, Rui Hachimura, Deni Avdija
Power Forward
Tobias Harris ($8,500 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel) has played 12 games without Embiid and with Simmons this season. In those games, he has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.6 percent usage rate, 12.1 percent rebounding rate and 18 percent assist rate. He has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.5 percent usage rate, 11.1 percent rebounding rate and 14.8 percent assist rate in 23 games with Embiid and Simmons active, making him the biggest beneficiary of Embiid’s absence.
P.J. Washington ($6,800 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) is much more valuable on FanDuel than DraftKings, but he has upside on either site. Washington has been most productive when he has played center this season. With Bismack Biyombo and Cody Zeller both in the rotation, Washington is a riskier option. That said, Biyombo and Zeller only combined for 26.6 minutes last game and neither played in overtime. Washington played 39 minutes in regulation, including every minute that Biyombo or Zeller wasn’t on the floor. In the Hornets’ previous game, against Miami, Biyombo and Zeller combined for 40.1 minutes and Washington only played a total of 26 minutes. These two games give us a good idea of the floor and the ceiling for Washington in terms of opportunity. He has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute without Biyombo or Zeller on the floor this season compared to 0.89 DraftKings points per minute alongside Biyombo and 0.84 DraftKings points per minute alongside Zeller. He is obviously a riskier option on DraftKings than FanDuel since the salary leaves less margin for error, but there is a high ceiling as well.
Rui Hachimura ($6,000 DraftKings/$5,700 SF FanDuel) played 36.4 minutes last night and has averaged 35.1 minutes per game since the All-Star break. He has also been a more productive fantasy producer with 0.86 DraftKings points per minute over that time. In three games without Beal this season, Hachimura has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute with a 23.6 percent usage rate and 35.8 minutes per game, so he will project as an even stronger option if Beal is out.
Miles Bridges ($5,100 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) has averaged 29.3 minutes per game in four games without Ball, averaging 0.74 DraftKings points per minute. The playing time is skewed upwards by the overtime game against Phoenix, but I still expect about 28 minutes from Bridges tonight against the Wizards. He is likely to produce at an above-average rate in this matchup, making him a viable value option. While his salary is the same on DraftKings and FanDuel, which normally means someone is a better play on FanDuel, I actually think he is a better play on DraftKings since there is a bigger gap between his salary and Washington’s.
Marcus Morris ($5,100 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) has started nine games this season and has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute and 29.7 minutes per game. Leonard has been active for seven of those games and Morris has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute and 29.9 minutes per game. Like George and Leonard, Morris projects as a good value if everyone is active and only becomes a stronger play if we get late news that some Clippers are going to sit.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Tobias Harris, Rui Hachimura, Marcus Morris
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Tobias Harris, P.J. Washington, Marcus Morris
[JOINMLB+]
Center
Nikola Jokic ($10,500 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) gets to take on a Philadelphia frontcourt that is missing Embiid. Jokic has arguably been the best player in the NBA this season and it has translated to excellent fantasy production as well. He has averaged 1.67 DraftKings points per minute and 35.7 minutes per game while leading the Nuggets in usage rate, rebounding rate and assist rate. He is almost averaging a triple-double with 26.9 points, 11.1 rebounds and 8.5 assists per game. He added 1.6 steals and 0.7 blocks for good measure. Jokic is a great option tonight as he and Westbrook are the only two true DFS superstar options on the slate. One concern that I have with Jokic is that he could lose a couple minutes of playing time on average going forward. The addition of Gordon gives Denver another body that can play big minutes and it allows them to give JaMychal Green all of his minutes at the five (or Paul Millsap plus they added JaVale McGee). In his first game with Gordon, Jokic didn’t play in the fourth quarter due to garbage time. He played about 17 minutes in the first half, so he was on pace for about 34 minutes had the game been competitive. I don’t think these concerns do much to make me less interested in Jokic on tonight’s slate, but his rotations are something worth watching since we saw last season that Mike Malone preferred to keep him around 32 to 33 minutes when he had a competent backup center.
Clint Capela ($7,400 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) played 27.9 minutes against Denver in his last game but he missed his final stint due to garbage time. Capela’s playing time has been inconsistent all season long, but his rotations have been a little bit more favorable recently. Overall, he has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute and 27.8 minutes per game in nine games since Atlanta’s coaching change. He should get about 28 minutes tonight, but his excellent per-minute production makes him a strong tournament option since he has slate-winning upside in any game where he plays a few minutes more than his average.
Deandre Ayton ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) has now played at least 29 minutes in five straight games after failing to reach 30 minutes in his previous eight or nine games. Ayton has averaged 30.1 minutes per game in 40 games played with Devin Booker and Chris Paul active this season and he has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in those games. I don’t love the matchup against the Hawks, but Ayton does offer mid-range upside at the center position.
Ivica Zubac ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel) has averaged 28.3 minutes per game and 1.02 DraftKings points per minute in eight starts during Serge Ibaka’s most recent absence. Tonight, he faces an Orlando team that is a shell of its former self after they traded their best three players at the trade deadline. Zubac should be able to have success against their frontcourt and he is another mid-range option with plenty of upside.
Dwight Howard ($5,800 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) has averaged 22.8 minutes per game in 12 games without Embiid and with Simmons this season, but that number is skewed since he has been ejected in each of his last two games. If he manages to control himself and not get ejected tonight, Howard should play 25 or 26 minutes, with the potential for more since the 76ers could use his size against Jokic. Howard has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute in his games without Embiid, so he has the potential to greatly exceed his salary. He is especially inexpensive on FanDuel at only $5,100.
Alex Len ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) is a volatile option since his playing time is inconsistent. There is a good chance that he sees a few extra minutes tonight, however, since Daniel Gafford is out with an ankle injury. Moritz Wagner is no longer on the team, so it should be a two-center rotation between Len and Robin Lopez. It is entirely possible that Hachimura gets time at the five as well, however, which would limit Len’s playing time, since Washington plays a lot of minutes at center for Charlotte. I would feel better about Len if they were playing a bigger team, but he has averaged 23.3 minutes per game and 0.99 DraftKings points per minute in eight starts without Wagner or Gafford this season.
Bismack Biyombo ($3,200 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) is a similar option to Len in that he is inexpensive but we really can’t be overly confident in how many minutes he is going to play. One only needs to look at Biyombo’s last two games, where he played about 15 minutes and about 27 minutes, to see the volatility in his playing time. In 24 total starts this season, Biyombo has averaged 25.9 minutes per game. In six starts with Zeller active, Biyombo has averaged 23.8 minutes per game. He has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute as a starter this season so, if we get 24-plus minutes, he projects as a strong value. Be sure to keep in mind there is an extremely low floor here, however, because there is more than one way for Biyombo to lose minutes. The most obvious is that the game could very easily go small with Washington and Hachimura playing center for their respective teams. The other is that Zeller could play more minutes than he has in recent games. In fact, Zeller is an appealing large-field GPP option on DraftKings if Biyombo is getting ownership tonight since he negatively correlates with Biyombo.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Clint Capela, Deandre Ayton, Alex Len, Bismack Biyombo
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic, Dwight Howard, Alex Len
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS picks content? We have loads of NBA DFS picks articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS picks cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NBA home page. Just click HERE.
