This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
Note: This article takes a very long time to write, especially on slates with a lot of games. In order to get information out earlier in the day, I will post the first few games and then update with the remaining games as I write them on bigger slates. Be sure to check back for updates throughout the afternoon.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Feb. 3
Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks (-8): 232
Indiana Pacers
Update: Myles Turner is questionable. Sabonis will project even better if he sits and Doug McDermott would probably re-join the starting lineup.
Domantas Sabonis has been excellent all season long and had a monster game last night. Naturally, his salary decreased. He has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute and 36.1 minutes per game in 12 games without Victor Oladipo this season. In those games, he has a 24 percent usage rate, 18 percent rebounding rate and 23.1 percent assist rate. He also got most of the back-up center minutes last night as Goga Bitadze only played about 4 minutes outside of garbage time. I typically don’t make cash game recommendations in this article because it’s too early in the day to know what an optimal lineup looks like, but I feel pretty confident that Sabonis will be a cash game staple on DraftKings in particular.
Malcolm Brogdon only played 28.8 minutes last night as he didn’t play in the fourth quarter of the Pacers’ blowout win over Memphis. In 12 games without Oladipo this season, Brogdon has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.2 percent usage rate and 28.9 percent assist rate. His price tag isn’t quite as favorable as Sabonis’, but he is still a strong guard option tonight against his former team.
Turner and Jeremy Lamb both look like secondary options tonight. Turner has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute and 34.4 minutes per game in 10 games without Oladipo while Lamb has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute and 27.1 minutes per game in four games since joining the starting lineup.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($8,300), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($8,800), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,400)
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks are coming off a blowout win over the Blazers two nights ago and appear fully healthy. Giannis Antetokounmpo stands out as the top option as he has averaged 1.64 DraftKings points per minute and 33 minutes per game in 19 games this season.
Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday and Brook Lopez are all viable options as well, though they don’t look as appealing as Antetokounmpo at their respective prices. Middleton is the most likely player to have a big game if Giannis is underwhelming as he has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute and 32.6 minutes per game in the 19 games that he has played with Giannis active this season.
One interesting rotation note from Milwaukee’s last game is that Bobby Portis played some minutes alongside Lopez. We hadn’t seen this for a while and it had mostly killed Portis’s value. We could see a similar rotation tonight against the Pacers’ big frontcourt. The problem is that Portis is already priced up, so there still isn’t a ton of value to be had there and he isn’t anything more than a large field GPP dart throw.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200)
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Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets (+7): 223
Philadelphia 76ers
Joel Embiid has been one of the best fantasy producers in the league this season. He has averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute and 31.7 minutes per game this season. Embiid leads the league in post-up possessions per game and Cody Zeller ranks in the 53rd percentile in defensive efficiency in the post this season. Charlotte has also allowed the 11th-most points in the paint since Zeller’s return to the starting lineup on Jan. 27. Prior to that, the Hornets had allowed the 12th-fewest points in the paint so this will be something to keep an eye on going forward. Regardless of matchup, Embiid is always one of the top center options.
Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are both reasonably priced mid-range options. Simmons has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute and 33.4 minutes per game with Embiid active this season while Harris has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute and 34.5 minutes per game.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($10,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($10,200)
Charlotte Hornets
Terry Rozier is questionable tonight after missing Charlotte’s last game and P.J. Washington is out. LaMelo Ball started in Rozier’s place and played about 27.5 minutes in regulation. He dealt with foul trouble throughout the game, however, so I think there is a good chance that we would see more minutes from him tonight if Rozier is out. Malik Monk had a monster game in about 35 minutes in regulation off the bench. I don’t expect 35 minutes again if Rozier is out, but there are a lot of minutes available since Washington is out as well. Monk started overtime in place of Washington and it is possible that he starts tonight, though James Borrego has plenty of alternatives as well.
Zeller is slowly becoming more expensive and he has a tough matchup against Joel Embiid that comes with plenty of foul risk. That said, we can’t ignore how well Zeller has played and how many minutes he has gotten as he played another 34 minutes in regulation last game. With P.J. Washington out, his playing time is even more secure as long as he can avoid foul trouble. Zeller has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 44 starts since the beginning of last season.
Ball looks like a strong option as he should get more minutes without Washington and has the potential for a lot more minutes if Rozier is out as well. Ball has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute in 295 minutes alongside Hayward this season, so I don’t expect getting more minutes alongside the starters to hurt Ball’s production too much.
Gordon Hayward would most likely see his rebounding numbers increase if he gets more minutes at the four with Washington sidelined. He has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season and projects as a solid mid-range forward option with the potential to produce at a higher rate than we have seen so far this season if his rebounding numbers do tick up. Miles Bridges has been Washington’s primary back-up this season, so we should be able to count on at least 27 or 28 minutes from him. James Borrego has talked about liking the way that Bridges matches up against opposing benches so I’m not sure that he replaces Washington in the starting lineup but, if he does, we could confidently project more minutes for him as well. He has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Monk’s playing time projection depends on whether or not he starts, but he should get healthy minutes regardless. He has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season and is still inexpensive so he looks like a strong value option.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Gordon Hayward ($7,200), LaMelo Ball ($7,000 if starting), Cody Zeller ($5,800), Malik Monk ($4,000 if Rozier is out)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Gordon Hayward ($7,400), LaMelo Ball ($6,600), Cody Zeller ($5,500), Miles Bridges ($4,200)
Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks (+1.5): 223
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are finally back to full strength. Luka Doncic remains a strong option as he takes on Trae Young and the Hawks. Doncic has averaged 1.72 DraftKings points per minute and 34 minutes per game in 57 games played with Kristaps Porzingis active since the start of last season. Atlanta hasn’t been the same great matchup this season as they have been in the past, as they only rank 14th in pace and ninth in defensive rating. Still, it’s a neutral matchup and Doncic is close to matchup proof.
Porzingis has been relatively disappointing this season, by his standards, with only 1.13 DraftKings points per minute. The Mavericks’ rotation last game isn’t favorable for Porzingis either as they started Maxi Kleber at center and used Willie Cauley-Stein as his primary back-up. Dallas did close with Porzingis at center, which would be nice to see continue. He is more productive when he plays center but he is cheap enough right now that he looks like a strong play regardless of what position he is playing.
Josh Richardson and Dorian Finney-Smith aren’t particularly productive DFS options as they have averaged 0.68 and 0.66 DraftKings points per minute this season. They are inexpensive, however, and each played at least 36 minutes against the Suns in Dallas’s last game. Both players played about 34 minutes in the previous game as well and they offer value simply based on playing time at their current salaries.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($10,700), Kristaps Porzingis ($7,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: ($11,500), Kristaps Porzingis ($7,500)
Atlanta Hawks
De’Andre Hunter, Kris Dunn and Bogdan Bogdanovic remain out. Onyeka Okongwu is questionable.
Young and Clint Capela are the highest upside options on Dallas, but they are also expensive. Young played 38.5 minutes against the Lakers in his last game and has averaged 34.3 minutes per game this season with 1.36 DraftKings points per minute. Capela has seen his playing time decrease recently with about 30 minutes in each of his last three games after playing at least 35 minutes in four of his previous five games. One note from his last game is that he picked up 3 first half fouls and missed his closing stint in the second quarter. So, there is a chance we would have gotten 34 to 35 minutes from him had he not been in foul trouble. If Okongwu is out again tonight, like he was last game, I think there is a reasonable chance that we see a few more minutes from Capela. He has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute and has a favorable matchup against a Dallas team that has allowed the sixth-most total rebounds per game and 12th-most offensive rebounds per game this season.
Kevin Huerter played 39.3 minutes against the Lakers while Cam Reddish replaced Hunter in the starting lineup and played 29.3 minutes. Both players are reasonable value options with Reddish being more affordably priced on DraftKings and Huerter more favorably priced on FanDuel.
John Collins should benefit if Okongwu is out tonight as he should get most of the back-up center minutes. He played 35 minutes against the Lakers and, like Capela, should benefit from Dallas’s poor rebounding.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($9,500), John Collins ($7,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: John Collins ($7,300), Kevin Huerter ($4,500)
Washington Wizards at Miami Heat (-9): 228
Washington Wizards
Washington is on the second half of a back-to-back so they will be without Russell Westbrook tonight. Raul Neto is also out so we will most likely see Ish Smith in the starting lineup.
Bradley Beal is a clear top option on the slate with Westbrook out. It’s a difficult spot in general for Beal and the Wizards, but he has averaged 1.61 DraftKings points per minute with a 38.2 percent usage rate and 34.9 percent assist rate in four games without Westbrook this season. The risk in Beal is that there is nobody else on the Wizards that Miami will need to focus on and they will do everything they can to get the ball out of his hands and force someone else to beat them. Typically, Beal is good enough that he produces anyway but I expect that we will see some duds mixed in as the season goes on. Still, there is a massive ceiling here as Beal has attempted 29, 20, 22 and 37 shots in his games without Westbrook while also contributing at least 6 assists in each game.
Smith played 27.4 minutes last night after playing 23.8 minutes in Washington’s previous game against Brooklyn. He has carved out a clear role in the rotation with Neto sidelined and he should see more minutes tonight without Westbrook. Smith has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute in 1,098 minutes alongside Beal since the start of last season and 0.87 DraftKings points per minute in 19 starts with Beal active over that time.
Rui Hachimura and Davis Bertans have both seen their playing time increase in recent games with Hachimura playing about 28 minutes and 34 minutes and Bertans playing about 30 minutes in each of his last two games. Bertans is struggling with his conditioning following the COVID layoff and Scott Brooks has essentially said he’s going to need to get in shape by playing games because they don’t have practice time with the condensed schedule. This is good for Bertans’ playing time projections but bad for his fantasy production as we have a jump shooter playing on tired legs. I don’t really know how to quantify any of this since we’ve never dealt with a situation like this but I think that it is fair to say there is added risk in rostering Bertans right now. Hachimura has closed the last two games at center and there is a good chance that we see the same thing tonight against Bam Adebayo. Hachimura has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in 1,222 minutes alongside Beal without Westbrook on the floor since the start of last season.
Garrison Mathews is an interesting punt option with Westbrook out. Since Ish Smith was already playing mid-twenties minutes, there are minutes available off the bench tonight. Mathews played 26.5 minutes two games ago but only 15.4 minutes last night. There is potential for him to be in the closing lineup over either of Deni Avdija or Bertans if Bertans is playing as poorly on both ends tonight as he did last night. Mathews has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute this season, so we just need him to find his way into around 24 minutes tonight. He has the added bonus of being someone who is likely to play in garbage time if the Heat run away with this game.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal ($9,700), Ish Smith ($4,800), Garrison Mathews ($3,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bradley Beal ($10,800), Ish Smith ($4,700), Rui Hachimura ($4,700)
Miami Heat
Goran Dragic, Avery Bradley, Tyler Herro and Gabe Vincent are all probable. Maurice Harkless, Meyers Leonard and Chris Silva remain out.
Miami returned to full strength last game and it appears that will be the case again tonight in an excellent matchup against the Wizards. Washington leads the league in pace and is one of the worst defensive teams and worst rebounding teams. The issue with Miami is that most of the players are priced up so they don’t stand out as top values at their positions. The good news is that means that they will be lower owned in tournaments and there is a very good chance that at least one Miami player exceeds expectations given the ample opportunities that Washington will offer.
Adebayo and Jimmy Butler are the starting points. Adebayo played about 34 minutes in regulation against Charlotte on Monday and he has averaged 33.1 minutes per game this season. Adebayo has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute in eight games played with Butler active, posting a 22.9 percent usage rate, 21.1 percent assist rate and 17.2 percent rebounding rate. Butler played about 32 minutes in regulation against Charlotte after playing about 34 minutes in his first game back. I expect 33 to 34 minutes from Butler tonight if this game is competitive and he has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 27.6 percent usage rate and 31.7 percent assist rate.
Herro and Duncan Robinson both look slightly overpriced, but they are high-upside tournament options given the matchup. Herro played about 30 minutes in regulation against Charlotte, but he has averaged 33.4 minutes per game in eight starts alongside Butler this season. He has only averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute in those starts, but he certainly has the potential to get hot and take more shots against this awful Washington defense. Robinson doesn’t contribute much in the way of peripherals with a 6.5 percent rebounding rate and 6.9 percent assist rate this season. He also only has a 15.4 percent usage rate. Robinson is an elite 3-point shooter, however, and he will take advantage of the Wizards if they are late on close-outs. We could see a similar game from Robinson as we saw from Gary Trent Jr. in this matchup last night as Washington gave him ample space to shoot all game long.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler ($8,400), Bam Adebayo ($9,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bam Adebayo ($9,100), Jimmy Butler ($8,500), Duncan Robinson ($4,400)
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls (-2): 217
New York Knicks
The Knicks have a favorable matchup against the Bulls, but there isn’t much to like here outside of Julius Randle. Randle has been the best fantasy producer on the Knicks and he is coming off a 39.2 minute game against Chicago on Monday. I think that we will see more 34 to 36 minute games from Randle than we did earlier in the season since the Knicks are fully healthy, but he still clearly has the upside to play more minutes and he has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Other than Randle, it’s difficult to feel confident in anyone’s playing time. R.J. Barrett has seen his playing time decrease with Burks, Bullock and Rivers all healthy. Elfrid Payton and Immanuel Quickley are splitting 48 minutes at point guard. Quickley is the higher upside option of the two but his price has increased as well. Payton has the more favorable price point but he hasn’t played more than 24 minutes in any of his last five games.
Nerlens Noel played 27.6 minutes against the Bulls on Monday, but typically he is locked into about 18 minutes as Mitchell Robinson’s back-up so it’s difficult to go back there. Alec Burks played 28.5 minutes and closed over Bullock on Monday. He seems to offer the best combination of salary, per-minute production and path to minutes as he has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season and Reggie Bullock isn’t a particularly imposing obstacle in his way to the closing lineup.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($9,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($8,600)
Chicago Bulls
Otto Porter is questionable, and Wendell Carter is still out.
Zach LaVine only played 32.2 minutes against New York on Monday due to foul trouble, but we typically get at least 34 or 35 minutes in competitive games. The matchup against the Knicks is unappealing as they are the slowest team in the NBA and one of the most efficient defenses. LaVine is priced down a bit for the matchup, however, and makes for a high-upside mid-range guard option if you can’t quite afford the top tier.
Coby White is second on the team in minutes per game this season at 33.9 minutes and he has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute. Like LaVine, White is priced lower than normal tonight and offers a decent ceiling despite the difficult matchup.
Lauri Markkanen has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season and played about 34 minutes on Monday. He has averaged 31.1 minutes per game this season but has played at least 33 minutes in three of his last four games. Markkanen’s rebounding rate is only 8.9 percent in the four games that he has played without Carter, which is surprising, but his usage rate has increased to 24.1 percent.
Thaddeus Young has been excellent in Carter’s absence. He has seemingly picked up the rebounding that I expected to go to Markkanen as he has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with a 15.5 percent rebounding rate in five games without Carter this season. He has a 16.7 percent usage rate and 37.5 percent assist rate in those games as well. The problem is that Young’s price is rising and, at the very least, those assist numbers aren’t sustainable.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($8,600), Coby White ($6,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($9,000), Coby White ($6,000)
Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder (+7.5): 222.5
Houston Rockets
John Wall is out tonight for Houston, which means we will probably see Eric Gordon join the starting lineup. He played 36.3 minutes against Detroit on January 22nd when he filled in for Wall.
Wall’s absence also means increased responsibilities for Victor Oladipo. Oladipo has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.6 percent usage rate and 34.5 percent assist rate in 139 minutes without Wall on the floor since joining the Rockets compared to 0.99 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.7 percent usage rate and 17.3 percent assist rate in 82 minutes alongside Wall. I expect to see at least 32 to 34 minutes from Oladipo tonight as long as the game is competitive and he looks like one of the better mid-range options available.
Gordon should also benefit because, not only should we expect more playing time, but we should expect his minutes to be staggered with Oladipo’s. That means that about 33 percent of Gordon’s minutes will most likely come without Oladipo, Wall or Harden on the floor. In 98 such minutes this season, Gordon has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.7 percent usage rate and 27 percent assist rate. In order to get a bigger sample, we can look back to last season and also remove Russell Westbrook from the floor. In 290 minutes since last season, Gordon has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.4 percent usage rate and 21.1 percent assist rate. Gordon has averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute in 105 minutes alongside Oladipo without Wall or Harden this season and that should account for the other 67 percent of his playing time tonight.
Christian Wood played about 18 first half minutes against Oklahoma City on Monday and looked like he was on his way to one of his highest minutes totals in a game where DeMarcus Cousins was active. Unfortunately, the game was a blowout and Wood ended up only playing 26 minutes. He had only averaged 31 minutes per game with Cousins active heading into that game, so we can’t expect more than 32 or 33 minutes tonight. Still, it was nice to see that there is at least the potential for him to play more minutes as it increases his ceiling even higher. Wood has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute this season and should have no issues in this matchup.
Jae’Sean Tate played about 32 minutes in the last game that Wall was out and he has averaged 0.79 FanDuel points per minute this season. He is relatively expensive on DraftKings, but near minimum salary on FanDuel.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Victor Oladipo ($7,800), Eric Gordon ($5,400), Christian Wood ($8,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Victor Oladipo ($8,200), Eric Gordon ($4,900), Christian Wood ($8,900), Jae’Sean Tate ($3,900)
Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, George Hill and Aleksej Pokusevski are all out tonight, along with Trevor Ariza, Moses Brown, Josh Hall and Ty Jerome. It appears that the Thunder will have 10 active bodies for tonight’s game. I’m not entirely sure why they are only 7-point underdogs here.
The Thunder are going to be a difficult team to balance tonight. On one hand, they are almost all clearly underpriced given the increase in playing time and opportunities they should see with Gilgeous-Alexander and Hill out. On the other hand, Houston has been the best defensive team in the NBA since they traded Harden and most of the players Oklahoma City has available are really bad and will be highly owned.
Al Horford has only played 32 minutes without Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor this season, but he has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute overall this season with a 19.2 percent usage rate, 15 percent assist rate and 14 percent rebounding rate. He should be able to fill some of the assist void left by Gilgeous-Alexander and he projects as a decent value assuming he plays 28 to 30 minutes tonight.
We can expect both of Theo Maledon and Hamidou Diallo to play more than 30 minutes tonight, though it’s worth mentioning that Oklahoma City has played Diallo less than expected in similar situations this season. Still, the absences of Gilgeous-Alexander and Hill leave them extremely short-handed in the backcourt. Maledon has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.3 percent usage rate and 23.1 percent assist rate in 221 minutes without Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor this season while Diallo has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.4 percent usage rate and 20.3 percent assist rate.
Darius Bazley has only played 49 minutes without Gilgeous-Alexander, but he has a 26.9 percent usage rate and I expect that we will see him and Luguentz Dort look to be more aggressive than usual offensively. Dort has a 26.4 percent usage rate in 34 minutes without Gilgeous-Alexander. It remains to be seen if either of them can take advantage of the increased usage since neither are great scorers, but the opportunities should be there.
Finally, I think we will probably see either Isaiah Roby or Mike Muscala soak up some minutes alongside Horford since Pokusevski is out. I am more inclined to roster Roby since he is a young piece that could be part of Oklahoma City’s future and they have no reason to care about whether or not he helps win the game. He has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season. He is a risky option since he could get lost in the shuffle amongst Muscala, Horford, Justin Jackson, Kenrich Williams and Darius Miller, but he is worth a dart throw in large field GPPs.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Hamidou Diallo ($4,500), Theo Maledon ($4,300), Darius Bazley ($5,200), Al Horford ($6,000), Lu Dort ($4,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Hamidou Diallo ($4,300), Darius Bazley ($5,100), Theo Maledon ($4,800), Lu Dort ($4,400), Al Horford ($6,500)
Los Angeles Clippers at Cleveland Cavaliers (+8.5): 219
Los Angeles Clippers
Patrick Beverley is still out. Nobody else is on the injury report. Reggie Jackson should get another start in his place after playing 34.7 minutes last night.
The Clippers are a pretty easy team to talk about when everyone is healthy. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are the top two options as they have averaged 34.2 and 34.9 minutes per game in the 17 games they have played together this season. George has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute in those games while Leonard has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute. Leonard is a little bit more expensive than George, but it will probably be easier to get him into lineups tonight since he is a small forward and there is better guard value than forward value on this slate.
We can also look to Jackson. Jackson has now started four games with George and Leonard active this season. He has averaged 25.8 minutes per game and 1 DraftKings point per minute with an 18.2 percent usage rate and 15.6 percent assist rate. He only played 18 minutes in a blowout against Sacramento in the first of those four games, however, and he has played 25, 26 and 35 minutes in the games since.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,400)
Cleveland Cavaliers
Larry Nance Jr. is out again and Andre Drummond is questionable. Jarrett Allen started in Drummond’s place last game and posted a huge game in 34.8 minutes. Taurean Prince started for Nance and played 31.6 minutes.
Whoever starts at center will look like a strong option tonight. Drummond could only be expected to play about 28 minutes, but he has averaged 1.53 DraftKings points per minute this season and his salary has fallen with the addition of Allen. If Drummond is out, Allen would be in line for about 34 minutes again. He has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute since joining Cleveland and averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute with the Nets earlier this season.
Collin Sexton and Darius Garland played 41.4 and 38.4 minutes against Minnesota on Monday and they could see a few extra minutes again tonight with Nance out. It was interesting that Cleveland chose to only use Dylan Windler for 5 minutes off the bench and Damyean Dotson for 11.1 minutes. If they run a tight rotation again tonight despite Nance’s absence, it bodes very well for Sexton and Garland. They would also see increased usage if Drummond were out because Allen is a low-usage center and Drummond has a 32.5 percent usage rate this season. Keep in mind that it is a difficult matchup for Sexton and Garland, so they are likely to grade out as secondary options given all of the great guard plays tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($8,400 if active)/Jarrett Allen ($6,500 if Drummond is out), Collin Sexton ($6,900 — better if Drummond is out), Darius Garland ($5,900 — better if Drummond is out)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($8,800)/Jarrett Allen ($7,000), Collin Sexton ($6,800), Darius Garland ($5,800)
Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs (-8): 223.5
Minnesota Timberwolves
Karl-Anthony Towns is still out. D’Angelo Russell is questionable, as is Juan Hernangomez. Naz Reid is probable.
The Timberwolves look like one of the less appealing teams tonight as they have a relatively difficult matchup against the Spurs and are getting closer to full strength (assuming Russell plays). Russell looks like the top option as his salary has fallen to account for him playing 28 to 30 minutes in most games. He has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.7 percent usage rate in 13 games without Towns this season, so the upside is there if he happens to get a couple extra minutes. Because of the limited playing time, he’s only a secondary option on a slate stacked with guard options.
Anthony Edwards and Malik Beasley are both likely to play 30-plus minutes, but their rates suffer with Russell active. If he is out, then both players look like better options and Ricky Rubio would become a reasonable value option as well.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: D’Angelo Russell ($6,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: D’Angelo Russell ($7,400)
San Antonio Spurs
LaMarcus Aldridge and Rudy Gay are both out, which opens up a lot of frontcourt minutes for the Spurs.
Jakob Poeltl has played 24, 20 and 24 minutes in three games without Aldridge this season. One of those games was a blowout against Utah where it appeared he was going to get more minutes. Poeltl has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute and 25.3 minutes per game in 16 starts without Aldridge since the beginning of last season.
Dejounte Murray, DeMar DeRozan and Keldon Johnson all are good mid-range options in tonight’s matchup. Aldridge is the second highest usage player in the normal starting lineup and Poeltl won’t replace all of that usage, which should leave more for this trio. DeRozan has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.6 percent usage rate in 20 games with Murray active and Aldridge out since last season while Murray has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.5 percent usage rate. Murray has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute overall this season, so it is likely that his per-minute production is higher than that 1.04 DraftKings points per minute that includes games from last season.
Johnson’s primary back-up is out, so we could see more minutes from him as well. He has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season. One concern is that he has the highest rebounding rate in the normal starting lineup and Poeltl rebounds better than Aldridge. That may be offset by an uptick in usage, however.
If you want to gamble on a cheap option, Gay’s absence could lead to more minutes for any of Lonnie Walker, Devin Vassell or Trey Lyles. The most likely outcome is that none of them get enough minutes to be a top option with Derrick White healthy off the bench, but it certainly wouldn’t be the first time that I have been wrong about Pop’s rotation and they have the potential to win GPPs if they play more minutes than I’m expecting. Walker is my top option from the group since he is a starter and has the easiest path to 26-plus minutes.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jakob Poeltl ($4,600), DeMar DeRozan ($6,900), Dejounte Murray ($6,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jakob Poeltl ($4,800), Keldon Johnson ($5,700), DeMar DeRozan ($7,200), Dejounte Murray ($6,900)
Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans (+3.5): 223.5
Phoenix Suns
Devin Booker returned to action last game and is listed as probable tonight. Cameron Payne and Dario Saric remain out and Abdel Nader is questionable.
Chris Paul played 38 minutes and had a monster game on Monday despite Booker’s return. While I expect Paul’s per-minute production to fall off with Booker back in the lineup, it is interesting that he played 38 minutes since he had been playing 30 to 32 minutes in most games prior to Booker’s injury. The absence of Payne could contribute to more playing time for Paul until he returns. Paul is difficult to prioritize tonight since we have a lot of great guard plays and he is still priced up from his time without Booker, but he is worth a look in larger field tournaments in the hope that he gets 36-plus minutes again.
Booker played 31.4 minutes in his return. He has averaged 35.4 minutes per game this season and I expect him to return to that sooner than later. The issue for Booker is that Paul has hurt his assist numbers and turned him mostly into a scoring dependent player. If Paul is also playing more minutes now with Payne sidelined, then it is fewer minutes for Booker to pick up assists without him on the floor. The matchup is favorable, but I would rather take a chance on Paul if I were looking for a contrarian play from the Suns’ backcourt.
Deandre Ayton played 32.9 minutes last game against Dallas and he has averaged 33 minutes per game in 12 games without his back-up, Dario Saric, this season. Ayton’s matchup depends on the status of Steven Adams, who is questionable. If Adams is in, he can make life difficult on Ayton. If he is out, Ayton should have his way against Jaxson Hayes and/or Guillermo Hernangomez.
Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson both played huge minutes last game while Jae Crowder returned to the bench and only played about 15 minutes. Crowder’s presence means that Bridges or Johnson can lose playing time in any given game, but they are both inexpensive for forward options that have the potential to play 34-plus minutes in a good matchup against the Pelicans.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Deandre Ayton ($7,400 — better if Adams is out)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Cameron Johnson ($4,400)
New Orleans Pelicans
As mentioned before, Adams is questionable. Hayes started in his place but was limited to 11.3 minutes against Sacramento due to foul trouble. Willy Hernangomez stepped in and had a huge game in 28.6 minutes. My guess is that Hayes will start again if Adams is out, but it’s tough to see Hernangomez not having a sizeable role as his back-up after his performance on Monday. Both players would be low-floor, high-ceiling options if Adams is out.
The Pelicans don’t look as appealing as normal given the context of this slate. The Suns rank in the bottom five in pace and top five in defensive rating this season. Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are my favorite targets, as usual, but they are both only secondary options in my opinion. Williamson has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute this season while Ingram has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute. Williamson has averaged 32.8 minutes per game to Ingram’s 34.9 minutes per game.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zion Williamson ($8,000), Brandon Ingram ($8,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zion Williamson ($8,300), Brandon Ingram ($8,200), Steven Adams ($5,100 if active)
Boston Celtics at Sacramento Kings (+1): 225
Boston Celtics
Marcus Smart, Kemba Walker and Payton Pritchard are all out tonight, so there are a lot of minutes available in the backcourt.
Jeff Teague has started two games this season, with the most recent coming on January 15th when Walker was out but Smart was active. Teague played 20.9 minutes in that game, but Pritchard closed the first half in his place and the game was a blowout so Teague didn’t play the fourth quarter. I think we see at least 28 minutes from Teague tonight in a good matchup against the Kings. Teague has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum should both take on bigger roles without Walker tonight. Brown has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute with a 30 percent usage rate and 16.7 percent assist rate in 11 games with Walker out and Tatum active this season. Tatum has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.2 percent usage rate and 19.1 percent assist rate in those games. Smart’s absence could open up even more assist opportunities, though I expect Teague to handle most of those.
Tristan Thompson started alongside Daniel Theis last night and I think we will probably see that again tonight against the Kings’ frontcourt of Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley. Thompson played 25.4 minutes while Theis played 28.7 minutes. Playing time for these two can fluctuate based on performance, but I think those are good expectations of what we will see tonight as well. Thompson has started nine games this season without Walker and with Brown, Tatum and Theis. He has averaged 22.4 minutes per game and 0.94 DraftKings points per minute. Theis has averaged 22.8 minutes per game and 0.8 DraftKings points per minute in those games.
Robert Williams is an interesting option in tournaments tonight, particularly on DraftKings where he is close to minimum salary and we can roster two centers. He only played 8.5 minutes last night, but the Warriors back-up centers were a combination of Juan Toscano-Anderson and Eric Paschall, neither of whom are actually centers. Sacramento’s back-up center is Hassan Whiteside, which makes it much more likely that we either see more combined minutes from Theis and Thompson or more minutes from Williams (or both).
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($8,900), Jaylen Brown ($7,900), Jeff Teague ($4,700), Tristan Thompson ($3,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($9,500), Jaylen Brown ($8,700), Jeff Teague ($4,200), Tristan Thompson ($3,800)
Sacramento Kings
Pricing is up across the board on the Kings, who are fully healthy tonight. This will make it difficult to prioritize most of their players, but we can still look to them in tournaments — especially because they correlate positively with the Celtics who will probably be some of our highest exposures tonight.
De’Aaron Fox showed how high his ceiling is with a 63 DraftKings point game against the Pelicans on Monday. We obviously aren’t expecting a repeat tonight, but we can count on him for at least 34 or 35 minutes if this game is competitive and he has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute this season. The Celtics are also without one of their best on-ball defenders in Marcus Smart.
Tyrese Haliburton played 32.4 minutes against the Pelicans, making it four straight games that he has closed. Bagley was ejected in the third quarter so the Kings didn’t really have another option, but I expect him to close more often than not going forward. He has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute and is one of the only Sacramento players that I think is still slightly underpriced for their average production.
Whiteside is a similar play to Robert Williams on the other side of this game. He will most likely play between 14 and 20 minutes tonight and, if he approaches 20 minutes, he will almost certainly be a strong value as he has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Tyrese Haliburton ($5,400), Hassan Whiteside ($3,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Tyrese Haliburton ($5,600), De’Aaron Fox ($8,200)
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