Welcome to a new NBA season! This is our primary in-depth NBA article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and myself from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
Update #1: Blake Griffin and Josh Jackson are out for Detroit. Saddiq Bey has typically started when Griffin is out, and Delon Wright was the replacement for Jackson when he left 36 seconds into the second half yesterday.
Update #2: Marcus Smart is still questionable for Boston, but Jeff Teague has been ruled out. Teague’s absence should mean a boost in playing time for Payton Pritchard and, especially if Smart also sits, Pritchard could slide into a big role tonight.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Jan. 4
Charlotte Hornets at Philadelphia 76ers (-9): 221.5
Charlotte Hornets
P.J. Washington only played 7 1/2 minutes in the second half on Saturday because of a finger injury, but he isn’t on the injury report so I assume he will be good to go tonight. The only player listed is Cody Zeller, who remains out.
The backcourt for Charlotte has been relatively messy all season and is only getting messier as LaMelo Ball earns a bigger role in the rotation. We saw Ball play 29 and 27 minutes in games where he benefitted from blowout run, but he followed it up with 30 minutes on Saturday as he closed alongside Devonte’ Graham and Terry Rozier. It is worth noting that Washington was dealing with his finger injury, but the fact that Ball seems to have played his way into more minutes makes it more difficult to trust the minutes for Graham and Rozier. Graham’s usage rate this season is all the way down to 16.5 percent and he’s averaged only 0.84 DraftKings points per minute, while Rozier has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.5 percent usage rate.
Ball has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute with a 24 percent usage rate, 27 percent assist rate and 11 percent rebounding rate. He is second on the team with 8.7 potential assists per game and fifth with eight rebound chances per game despite averaging only 23 minutes per game so far this season. There is some risk in any of Charlotte’s guards, but Ball is my preferred option as he is the least expensive, has been the most productive, and seems to be playing his way into more minutes.
Gordon Hayward rebounded from two poor performances to post 47 DraftKings points against Philadelphia on Saturday. He’s regularly playing 35-plus minutes in competitive games, and he has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 24.2 percent usage rate.
The frontcourt for Charlotte has some appeal here, but also plenty of risk. Bismack Biyombo has averaged 29.8 minutes per game as a starter this season, and he’s averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute in those starts. He’s the only thing remotely resembling a true center that Charlotte has in their rotation, so he should play as many minutes as he can tonight against Joel Embiid. On Saturday Biyombo logged 30.6 minutes, and I expect similar run tonight as long as he can avoid foul trouble (which is, of course, a big if against Embiid).
Washington has quickly become one of my least favorite players in DFS, as I roster him every night, and every night he starts out hot and then finds a way to be terrible in the second half. I still have interest in him tonight, assuming his health doesn’t become a concern later in the day, for the same reasons that I’ve rostered him on previous slates. I thought there was some risk that Charlotte would use one of their rookie bigs as the backup center against the big Philadelphia frontcourt on Saturday, but they didn’t. Washington played 14 minutes in the first half and possibly would have played more, but he picked up two fouls in the second quarter. Washington remained the backup center to Biyombo, which is why he’s an appealing option. He has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 23.3 percent usage rate and 11.6 percent rebounding rate. His usage and rebounding benefit from playing center with the second unit. I don’t anticipate Washington being a true priority on a nine-game slate, but I expect he will still be in plenty of my GPP lineups because I’m a stubborn person and I really don’t think I’m wrong about his upside in this role, even though we haven’t truly seen it yet.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LaMelo Ball ($5,600), Gordon Hayward ($7,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: I don’t really like any of their prices relative to other options, but Devonte’ Graham ($5,400) and P.J. Washington ($5,200) if I’m forced to choose.
Philadelphia 76ers
Furkan Korkmaz and Mike Scott are out tonight, which has a minimal impact. Tyrese Maxey and Matisse Thybulle are the main beneficiaries as they should each play 16-18 minutes off the bench.
Embiid is the starting point here as he has a great matchup against the Charlotte frontcourt. He posted 19 points and 14 rebounds in this matchup on Saturday and that honestly felt underwhelming. Embiid, unsurprisingly, leads the league in post-up attempts per game this season (tied with Andre Drummond). He has about a four-inch and 25-pound advantage on Biyombo, who is the biggest player in the Charlotte rotation. Washington has been the backup center and he is five inches shorter and 50 pounds lighter than Embiid. If Biyombo were to get in foul trouble, I suspect we would see Vernon Carey or Nick Richards pick up minutes against Embiid because of their size, but he shouldn’t have any trouble dominating a non-rotation rookie playing emergency minutes. Charlotte really has no answer for Embiid here. On top of the great matchup, Embiid once again played 36 minutes in a competitive game on Saturday. His floor and ceiling are higher this season than they have been in the past as Doc Rivers looks to play him more minutes than Brett Brown did.
Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris are also strong plays behind Embiid. Both guys should play 35-plus minutes barring foul trouble or blowout. Simmons has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute this season, while Harris has averaged 1.27 points per minute. Harris’s true shooting rate is about six points higher so far this season than last season so his fantasy performance should regress, but he averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute in games where both of Simmons and Embiid were active last season. That would still make him a solid mid-range option here against Charlotte.
Seth Curry played 34 minutes on Saturday, and the absence of Korkmaz does solidify his minutes a bit. I expect we see at least 30-32 again tonight with the potential for more like we saw Saturday. Curry is clearly the fourth option offensively, but he’s also one of the best 3-point shooters in the league, so his efficiency can make up for a lack of volume. He also has a 19.4 percent assist rate this season and he’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute.
Danny Green rounds out the starting five. He enters tonight’s game with only a 12.2 percent usage rate and he’s only averaged 0.65 DraftKings points per minute. He’s certainly not someone that you want to rely on but, depending how much cheap value opens up on this slate, he’s a viable tournament punt at near minimum salary as he should play about 26 minutes tonight. You’ll just need him to be efficient from 3 and run into a couple extra rebounds or steals.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($9,900), Tobias Harris ($7,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($9,900), Ben Simmons ($8,700)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic (-5): 217
Cleveland Cavaliers
We have a good amount of news that we’re waiting on here. Kevin Love, Matthew Dellavedova, Kevin Porter Jr. and Dylan Windler are still out. Darius Garland and Isaac Okoro are both questionable, however, and both have a big impact on the rotation. For now, I will assume that they both play.
Drummond is the only player from Cleveland that really stands out to me tonight in a mediocre matchup against the Magic. He has been excellent on a per-minute basis this season, as he was last year after joining Cleveland. Drummond has averaged 1.56 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.9 percent usage rate, 26.8 percent rebounding rate and 16.1 percent assist rate. He’s tied with Embiid for the league lead with eight post-up possessions per game. Last year, he averaged 3.1 per game with Detroit and 4.5 per game with Cleveland so this is an addition to his game. He’s also second in the NBA with 20.8 rebound chances per game despite only averaged 29.2 minutes per game so far this season. The 29.2 minutes per game is the only real concern here for Drummond. On one hand, he has suffered from foul trouble in a couple of games so I think we can expect his average playing time to increase by a couple minutes as the sample size increases. That said, he does also have a competent backup in JaVale McGee. The reason I mention this is that, particularly at the center position, having a quality backup can have a negative effect on the starter’s minutes. Since Drummond and McGee are never going to play alongside each other, Drummond’s minutes are essentially capped if we assume that McGee is going to always play at least 14 or so minutes. The other problem is that McGee is capable of playing very well when he comes off the bench. We saw this last game against Atlanta when McGee stayed on the floor for about 13 consecutive minutes between the third and fourth quarters. This is a long way of saying that Drummond is a very good play because he produces at a great per-minute rate, but there is more uncertainty in his playing time than there is for most players at his price point.
The rest of the Cavs are unappealing to me, assuming that Garland plays. If he doesn’t play, then Collin Sexton should get more assist opportunities, Dante Exum should play more minutes and there will be additional usage available for everyone. If he is in, however, I think the pricing for Cleveland’s backcourt is efficient so they would be limited to contrarian tournament options.
Larry Nance Jr. is the final piece to touch on as he is playing monster minutes with Love out. If Okoro plays, I think we could see Nance lose a few minutes. If Okoro is out, Nance should get about 36 minutes once again. He’s averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute and looks like another efficiently priced option that I won’t be prioritizing but could see using in tournaments if Okoro is out.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($9,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($9,500)
Orlando Magic
Evan Fournier and James Ennis are questionable, while Al-Farouq Aminu, Jonathan Isaac and Chuma Okeke remain out.
With Fournier sidelined on Saturday, we saw Michael Carter-Williams start and play 31.2 minutes. Dwayne Bacon played 29.9 minutes as well. Neither player is great on a per-minute basis. as Carter-Williams has averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute with a 14.3 percent usage rate this season and Bacon has averaged 0.64 DraftKings points per minute with a 14.0 percent usage rate . They have some appeal as value options because they’re inexpensive and will have the opportunity to play 30-plus minutes, but I think it’s important to note that neither of these players should have appealing rates playing with the starting unit. Carter-Williams has historically been a strong per-minute fantasy producer, but most of those minutes were either on terrible teams or playing off the bench. We can’t expect him to produce stats at the same rates playing most of his minutes alongside guys like Markelle Fultz and Nikola Vucevic. Terrence Ross would also benefit slightly from Fournier’s absence, as he would likely pick up a few extra minutes and reach about 30 minutes if Fournier is out. Ross has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season and 1.04 points per minute so far this season. One final note on the backcourt is that last game, with Fournier out and Ross active, Cole Anthony only played 17.1 minutes off the bench. Orlando continues to be hesitant to play him many minutes alongside Fultz if they don’t have to, which caps his playing time.
If Fournier plays, I have no interest in either of Bacon or Carter-Williams. Fournier himself would have some value at a cheap price tag assuming he plays about 30 minutes against the Cavs, but keep your expectations in check as, in my non-expert opinion, he’s washed and just cashing checks. He’s averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season with a 22.9 percent usage rate and 15.3 percent assist rate . So far this season, he’s averaged 0.89 points per minute with a 20.0 percent usage rate and 10.2 percent assist rate and I expect the emergence of Fultz to continue to lower Fournier’s rates.
Vucevic is the most appealing piece of the Magic as he is slightly less expensive than the other top center options. Vucevic is off to another great start this season, averaging 1.43 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.7 percent usage rate , 19.0 percent rebounding rate and 17.5 percent assist rate . We can expect 32-34 minutes from Vucevic if the game is competitive.
Fultz and Aaron Gordon looks like secondary options regardless of Fournier’s status. Fultz has taken a step forward so far this season, leading the team with a 24.9 percent usage rate and 28.2 percent assist rate. He’s averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. I expect we get 30-31 minutes if Fournier is in, with the potential for a few more minutes if Fournier sits. Gordon has been on a minutes limit all season, but we have seen him reach 30 and 28 minutes in a couple of competitive games. His salary is relatively inexpensive, and Gordon has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season. His playing time makes him risky, but it should also keep his ownership down in tournaments.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($8,800), Markelle Fultz ($6,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($8,300), Markelle Fultz ($5,800), Michael Carter-Williams (If Fournier is out- $3,700), Terrence Ross (better if Fournier is out, but fine either way- $5,700)
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New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks (-6.5): 222
New York Knicks
The injury report for the Knicks looks mostly the same as it has for the last few games. Alec Burks is questionable and Kevin Knox is probable while Omari Spellman and Dennis Smith are both doubtful. Frank Ntilikina and Obi Toppin remain out. I’m going to assume for now that Burks is out but, if he plays, it probably takes minutes from some combination of Immanuel Quickley, Knox and Austin Rivers, while also decreasing the minute projection for Elfrid Payton and making his leash much shorter if he plays poorly.
Years of dealing with terrible Knicks teams makes me cringe whenever I see they are on a slate, but then I remember that this is a Tom Thibodeau team now which means they’re great for DFS. Thibodeau is known for playing his main guys huge minutes and he’s been true to his reputation so far this season.
Julius Randle has averaged 37.7 minutes per game this season. He has played at least 35 minutes in every game and he topped out at 44 minutes, in regulation, against Cleveland on December 29th. In addition to playing huge minutes, Randle has been excellent in every offensive category this season. He leads the team with a 25.8 percent usage rate and a 31.4 percent assist rate. He’s also tied with Mitchell Robinson for the highest rebounding rate among starters at 14.6 percent. While it would be surprising if Randle is able to maintain a 31.4 percent assist rate long-term, he is 12th in the NBA with 13.8 potential assists per game so far so his assist rate so far isn’t a fluke. He is also 10th in rebound chances per game. Randle should benefit from a fast-paced game against Atlanta and he is a strong play regardless of site- though his salary is especially favorable on FanDuel.
R.J. Barrett and Payton are also appealing options here, especially if Burks is out to help solidify Payton’s playing time. Barrett should play huge minutes regardless of who is on the floor. He’s averaged 37.9 minutes per game this season and can play multiple positions. He was also New York’s first-round pick last year, so they should be looking to develop him as quickly as possible. So far this season, he has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute with a 22.9 percent usage rate, 14.4 percent assist rate and 9.7 percent rebounding rate. He plays enough minutes to satisfy his price tag even with the modest per-minute production that we’ve seen this season. Payton is a little bit riskier, especially if Burks plays, because his minutes floor is lower. He’s only averaged 27.1 minutes per game this season, but he played 34 minutes last game, so he has a wide range of outcomes. If Burks sits, I would expect 32-plus minutes from Payton while I would lower my expectations to 28-30 minutes if Burks is in. Either way, this is a player that is capable of producing rebounds and assists, in addition to scoring. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.4 percent usage rate and 27.0 percent assist rate this season, both of which are second to Randle on this team.
Robinson is never someone I shy away from targeting in tournaments because of his block upside and the fact he is getting 30 minutes in games where he isn’t in foul trouble- which has been a surprising number of games so far. That said, he’s only averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season and the opportunity cost at the center position makes it a risky proposition to devote too much exposure to him.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($9,000), Elfrid Payton ($6,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($8,100), R.J. Barrett ($6,100), Elfrid Payton ($5,300)
Atlanta Hawks
Danilo Gallinari remains out for Atlanta, as do Kris Dunn, Onyeka Okongwu and Tony Snell. Rajon Rondo is doubtful and Kevin Huerter is questionable. If Huerter sits, it should open the door for a couple more minutes for Cam Reddish, Bogdan Bogdanovic and/or De’Andre Hunter.
Trae Young has averaged 32.1 minutes per game this season and ranks fifth in the league with 18.2 drives per game. Young’s usage rate remains extremely high at 33.8 percent and he has a 40.0 percent assist rate as well. The Knicks are in the bottom 10 in pace and top 10 in defensive efficiency so far this season, but it’s still too early to read much into that. Young has a monster ceiling regardless of matchup. The only problem is that there are a lot of expensive players on this slate, so it may not be easy to prioritize Young. At the very least, he will be a strong tournament option.
John Collins played 34.1 minutes against Cleveland on Saturday, which I’m happy to see because, even in games where he didn’t deal with foul trouble, he was consistently playing, or on pace to play, about 30 minutes. Collins has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute this season, so the only issue has been with his playing time. It is worth noting that Bruno Fernando remained in the rotation last game, so we didn’t get many minutes at center for Collins which is disappointing. There is plenty of upside at his salary, but also some other mid-range options that I expect to roster ahead of him.
Clint Capela played 30.9 minutes against the Cavs on the second half of a back-to-back where he played 29.7 minutes on the first leg. This tells me that Capela is healthy and we can treat him like he is at full strength. Capela has always been a productive fantasy player. He averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with Houston last season and has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute through his first 100 minutes with Atlanta this season. His salary came up from last game, but he’s still clearly underpriced as a result of his early season minutes restriction.
The rest of the pieces on Atlanta are essentially interchangeable. I expect mid-to-upper twenties for all of Reddish, Bogdanovic and Huerter with maybe a couple more minutes for Hunter. All four players are in the 0.80 to 0.90 fantasy point per minute range. They can be used as filler in larger field tournaments, but I don’t see any reason to prioritize any of them. As mentioned before, if Huerter sits, I would give a few more minutes to each of the rest of this group.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($9,800), John Collins ($7,200), Clint Capela ($6,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($9,400), John Collins ($6,800), Clint Capela ($6,500)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat (-9): 214.5
Oklahoma City Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains fairly priced for his role on this rebuilding Oklahoma City squad. He’s averaged 33.5 minutes per game this season and has a 27.3 percent usage rate and 31.2 percent assist rate, which has resulted in 1.11 DraftKings points per minute. The problem for Gilgeous-Alexander tonight is a tough matchup against Miami. The Heat are clearly the better team, and there’s no other real offensive threat on the Thunder to take their attention away from Gilgeous-Alexander. The price point is still favorable, but I am concerned about the matchup and think we could see a really inefficient game.
The rest of Oklahoma City is unappealing in this difficult matchup where the Thunder only have a 104-point implied total. Darius Bazley is coming off a monster game on Saturday and he will have plenty of opportunities on this team, but I would rather target him against weaker defenses who play at a faster pace. George Hill and Al Horford have more opportunities on this team than they had for the Bucks and 76ers last year but, again, this just isn’t a matchup that I’m looking to target too heavily.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,000)
Miami Heat
Avery Bradley is questionable. Everyone else is expected to be available for Miami.
Jimmy Butler is clearly underpriced for this matchup. He dealt with an injury and then only played 26.8 minutes in his first game back, but that was because he didn’t play in the fourth quarter. Miami entered the quarter trailing by about 20 points, and Erik Spoelstra elected to use the same five players who started the quarter for the entire quarter as they went on a 20-6 run to make the game competitive again. There’s no reason to think that Butler won’t be in the closing lineup tonight if the game is competitive. He’s averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute since joining Miami last season and should play at least 32 or 33 minutes if tonight’s game is relatively competitive.
Bam Adebayo is a high-upside option. The problem is that his salary increased when Butler was sidelined, and it hasn’t come back down yet. This makes him slightly overpriced from a median projection standpoint. Adebayo has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute since last season with a 22.1 percent usage rate, 23.0 percent assist rate and 17.1 percent rebounding rate so he can still exceed this salary despite its increase. One positive for Adebayo in this matchup is that his normal rotation puts him on the floor with the second unit. Oklahoma City’s bench is extremely weak, and Adebayo should produce at an above average rate while he’s playing against them.
Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic and Duncan Robinson all suffer somewhat from the same issue as Adebayo as their salaries mostly increased while Butler was out, and now they’re a little overpriced. One exception is Herro on FanDuel, where he was so underpriced prior to Butler’s injury that his increased salary is still not more expensive than it should be even with Butler active. If you’re looking for a low-owned tournament play here, Dragic has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute since last season and will be the point guard against Oklahoma City’s weak second unit.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler ($7,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler ($7,700)
Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors (-4): 218.5
Boston Celtics
Boston hasn’t submitted an injury report yet, but we know that Smart is questionable. If he sits, we should see more run for Teague and Pritchard. We also will need to keep an eye on Tristan Thompson’s status as he sat out the second leg of their most recent back-to-back. If he sits tonight, Daniel Theis and Robert Williams both see a bump. Teague started the last time that Thompson sat, and he would be a strong value as well if he starts tonight (whether for Smart or for Thompson).
Jaylen Brown has been outstanding so far this season. He’s averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute and leads the team with a 30.1 percent usage rate. He also has contributed a 17.3 percent assist rate, taking on a bigger playmaking role in Walker’s absence. The matchup tonight against Toronto is difficult and Brown’s salary has increased, so he’s more of a secondary tournament option than a priority for me. While he has played exceptionally well, there are also a couple of red flags for me with Brown. For one, I just don’t believe that he will have a higher usage rate than Jayson Tatum long-term. Second, and somewhat related to the first, is that Brown’s true shooting rate of 67.3 percent this season is nine points higher than his 58.2 percent true shooting rate last season. I expect Brown to shoot less efficiently than he has to this point going forward and, when that happens, I think there is a good chance that Tatum starts using more possessions than him as well.
Tatum seems like he has taken a step back this season from a DFS standpoint, but that has more to do with Brown’s performance than it does with his own. Tatum has still averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute in 34.6 minutes per game this season with a 29.4 percent usage rate, 13.0 percent rebounding rate and 18.4 percent assist rate. Like Brown, he’s taken on a bigger playmaking role without Walker in the lineup. I think we see him eventually surpass Brown in usage rate so, where they are similarly priced, I actually prefer Tatum to Brown.
Thompson played 26.5 minutes against Detroit yesterday and it appears that we can count on him to play 26-28 minutes now after being limited to 22 minutes early in the season. Thompson averages about 1 fantasy point per minute, making him project as a strong value at his salary if he does in fact play tonight. If he sits, Theis becomes my preferred option with Williams serving as a GPP pivot if Theis’ ownership is much higher. Theis only played 19.1 minutes the last game that Thompson sat, but he was plagued by a first quarter injury, third quarter foul trouble and a fourth quarter blowout. In a normal game without Thompson, I expect that we get 26-28 minutes from Theis and 20-22 minutes from Williams.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($8,600), Jaylen Brown ($8,300), Tristan Thompson (if active- $4,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($9,100), Jaylen Brown ($8,500), Tristan Thompson (if active- $4,300)
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are at full strength as Patrick McCaw is the only player listed as out.
Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet are always strong bets to play big minutes. It’s essentially impossible to guess which of them will perform better on any given night, but Lowry has been the slightly more productive player on average since last season with 1.10 DraftKings points per minute compared to VanVleet’s 1.04 DraftKings points per minute. In general, when choosing between them at similar salaries, I prefer Lowry in cash games and whoever is lower owned in tournaments. Tonight specifically, neither one stands out as a priority- though I will become more interested if Marcus Smart misses this game as Boston’s defense should suffer.
I have no idea what is going on with Pascal Siakam as he never struck me as a diva-type player but he was benched two games ago for disciplinary reasons and followed that up by fouling out after 24.7 minutes of absolutely terrible basketball against the Pelicans on Saturday. That said, his salary is too cheap for someone who has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute since last season and who should play 36-plus minutes tonight assuming he plays up to his normal skill level and doesn’t foul out. The matchup isn’t great, but Siakam is cheap enough that there is still value here.
Chris Boucher was excellent once again in 28.6 minutes against the Pelicans on Saturday. This is the perfect example of a player where you should just look to zig where others zag in tournaments. On one hand, there’s going to be plenty of games where he doesn’t play enough minutes to justify his salary- so there is risk in rostering him on any given slate. On the other hand, he has plenty of paths to playing 26-plus minutes in any given game. The most obvious way is by stealing minutes from Aron Baynes against smaller frontcourts (he should be able to play without much issue tonight against the Celtics-especially if Thompson sits), but we also saw him play alongside Baynes when Siakam was in foul trouble last game. Boucher has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute since last season and is a low-floor, high-ceiling option at his current price point.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Pascal Siakam ($7,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Pascal Siakam ($7,200), Kyle Lowry ($7,500)
Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks (-16): 224
Detroit Pistons
We don’t have an injury report from the Pistons at the time I’m writing this, so I’m assuming that they’re healthy for now and will update later if I need to. Griffin returned to the lineup yesterday and played 29.4 minutes. It wouldn’t be surprising if, one or both of, he and Derrick Rose rest tonight on the second half of a back-to-back but, for now, I’m assuming they play.
If the Pistons are at full strength, this looks like one of the least interesting teams on the slate. Nobody looks like a top play to me on either site as Detroit has one of the lowest implied totals on the slate, their salaries are relatively expensive as a result of playing games without Griffin recently, and the Bucks are a really tough opponent. I think the most logical way to get exposure is if you mini-game stack this game and hope it reaches its 224 total but is closer than the spread suggests, because I am confident that ownership across this game will be relatively low since people are terrified of blowouts and there are plenty of other places to look on this slate. If you’re looking to take this approach in GPPs, I would look to Jerami Grant, Griffin or Rose (assuming they play) because they will have the most opportunities to get hot enough to keep the game close.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None
Milwaukee Bucks
Pat Connaughton is doubtful while Torrey Craig and Sam Merrill are both out. I expect Connaughton’s absence to free up more minutes for a combination of Donte DiVincenzo, D.J. Augustin and Bryn Forbes, but I don’t think it moves the needle much for DFS purposes.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is the starting point here, as usual. He’s been playing 36 minutes in competitive games this season, which is great to see. While it probably won’t be relevant tonight, it does increase his ceiling from last year when there was a good chance you were only going to get 33 or 34 minutes even if the game went down to the wire. The interesting thing about Giannis is that his salary very clearly factors in the fact that the Bucks are often involved in blowouts and his minutes suffer- especially on DraftKings. He has averaged 1.87 DraftKings points per minute since last season so, if he were priced for a competitive game, he would be around $12,000. He’s only $10,800, so we are getting a discount. Yet people still will avoid him because they’re concerned he won’t play his full 36 minutes. It doesn’t make any sense to me, but I enjoy getting 55-70 fantasy points at 15 percent ownership every time Giannis plays and I will look to do so again tonight.
If you can’t afford Giannis because there are plenty of other stars on this slate, feel free to look to Khris Middleton or Jrue Holiday as mid-range options. Middleton has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute this season while Holiday has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute. They both suffer from the same blowout risk as Giannis, obviously, but it’s close to impossible for the Bucks to blow a team out in three quarters without one of these three having a big game since they account for such a high rate of Milwaukee’s offense.
Bobby Portis is an interesting piece in the same mold as Chris Boucher in tournaments. If the game goes exactly according to script and is competitive, he probably only plays 20-22 minutes. But, if anything weird happens from Brook Lopez getting in foul trouble, to Portis playing exceptionally well off the bench, to the game blowing out and Lopez not playing in the fourth quarter, Portis has the potential to give us 25 or 26 minutes. He’s averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute this season and his volatility typically keeps his ownership low enough that he’s an appealing tournament option.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800), Khris Middleton ($7,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400), Jrue Holiday ($6,400)
Dallas Mavericks at Houston Rockets (-4.5): 230
Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic is probable for tonight’s game after sitting out last night’s game against the Bulls. Doncic rebounded from a slow start to the season to post a monster line against Miami his last time out. I expect that to be the case more often than not, as Doncic averaged about 1.65 DraftKings points per minute in games without Kristaps Porzingis last season (and more in games that he played). Doncic is a better option on DraftKings than FanDuel because the price point and scoring system are both more favorable, but he’s still a strong option on FanDuel as well.
Beyond Doncic, it’s tough to single out any one player from Dallas. That said, this should be a high-scoring game and there is likely to be value from the Mavericks. The first place I would look is Josh Richardson. He’s only averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute so far this season, but he’s averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute for his career, so I think his production increases somewhat going forward. He also has plenty of people to defend on Houston, so I think we’re looking at 34-plus minutes here from Richardson.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is expensive so we’re basically paying for his upside. He certainly has it in this spot, but he’s limited to tournament flier consideration for me. Dorian Finney-Smith is more favorably priced, but he’s also a poor fantasy producer with only 0.69 fantasy points per minute this season.
If you need a cheap flier in large field tournaments, I don’t hate Trey Burke here. He has been ahead of Jalen Brunson in the backup guard pecking order this season. It’s possible Brunson earned more minutes with his performance last night but, if not, Burke would be in line for 18-20 minutes in a normal game. The Rockets are likely to close with a three-guard lineup, however, and if the Mavericks are playing from behind and prioritizing offense over defense, we could see them use Burke-Hardaway-Doncic-Richardson-Kleber/Powell/Finney-Smith to close this one out. It’s not the most likely closing lineup, but there is at least a path here to a few more minutes than normal for Burke in a high scoring game so I wanted to mention it.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($10,300), Josh Richardson ($5,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($11,100), Josh Richardson ($4,800)
Houston Rockets
James Harden is listed as available to play tonight, so we get a marquee matchup between him and Doncic. We only have one game this season without Houston at full strength, so we still need to balance what happened in that game with our expectations of what will happen going forward. Harden played 38.3 minutes in that game against Sacramento and I think we can realistically expect him to average around 37 minutes per game so there’s nothing unusual there. Harden had a 37.1 percent usage rate and 28.6 percent assist rate while averaging 1.46 DraftKings points per minute. Those numbers are mostly in line with his season averages playing alongside Chris Paul or Russell Westbrook, except I would expect his assist numbers to increase and his point-per-minute production to improve to about 1.60 points per minute as a result. Long story short, everything looked good for Harden in his only game with a full strength team this season and I don’t see any reason not to treat him as we would have last year.
John Wall is more difficult to project than Harden since we have no real idea of what this is going to look like. So far, though, it looks really good. The big thing is that Wall played 36.6 minutes. He followed that up with 37.2 minutes on Saturday without Harden, so the playing time alone makes Wall underpriced- particularly on DraftKings. Wall’s rates in the game with Harden were also good as he had a 28.2 percent usage rate and 36.0 percent assist rate. He had 13 potential assists while Harden had 12. Nobody else had more than six, so these two were dominating the playmaking opportunities as expected. Wall and Harden’s minutes were also staggered as expected, so about 30 percent of Wall’s playing time should come playing alongside the second unit- which is a huge benefit.
Christian Wood played 31.8 minutes in DeMarcus Cousins’ return and then played 33.4 minutes in their second game together. Cousins has played 13.9 and 11.1 minutes, so Wood appears to be the clear center for Houston. They’ve only played together for about a minute so far, so this looks like a situation where Cousins can have a big game if Wood gets in foul trouble but, otherwise, it’s the Christian Wood show. He contributed across all categories in the game he played with both of Harden and Wall, posting a 21.1 percent usage rate, 18.8 percent rebounding rate and 12 percent assist rate.
Outside of Harden, Wall and Wood, nothing stands out to me. Danuel House is cheap and should play around 30 minutes. He’s a low-usage player who doesn’t contribute much in the way of peripherals either, however, so you’re basically just praying that he runs into more rebounds and steals than normal if you roster him- which certainly can happen over 30 minutes but isn’t something to rely on. He looks more appealing on FanDuel than DraftKings. P.J. Tucker is a more expensive, less productive version of House while Eric Gordon is hurt because all of his minutes will come with at least one of Harden or Wall on the floor.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: James Harden ($11,100), John Wall ($7,600), Christian Wood ($7,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: James Harden ($11,400), John Wall ($8,500), Danuel House, Jr. ($4,000)
Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans (-1.5): 216.5
Indiana Pacers
There are no new injuries for Indiana. T.J. Warren and Jeremy Lamb remain sidelined.
Malcolm Brogdon posted a huge game in 41.3 minutes against the Knicks while Domantas Sabonis and Victor Oladipo struggled in 39.2 and 37.4 minutes. The main takeaway here is that these guys are playing huge minutes. They also all see an increased ceiling with Warren replaced by lower usage players in the lineup. The Pelicans are a sneaky good defensive team with the addition of Steven Adams and the strong backcourt duo of Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe, but there is still upside for all three of these players.
Brogdon has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute this season while Sabonis has produced 1.25 DraftKings points per minute. Oladipo’s 1.18 DraftKings points per minute is a sign that maybe he’s back to full strength after struggling last year in his return from an Achilles injury. None of their price points make them priorities for me tonight, but I expect to mix all three into tournament lineups assuming they’re relatively low-owned since they’re a little bit overpriced.
Aaron Holiday and Justin Holiday can be used as punt fillers if you’re playing a lot of tournament lineups. I expect 26-28 minutes from both. Neither grades out as a top play in that amount of time since they’re clearly the last option offensively.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Victor Oladipo ($7,000), Domantas Sabonis ($9,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Malcolm Brogdon ($7,800), Domantas Sabonis ($9,200)
New Orleans Pelicans
Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are the Pelicans’ version of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown where they’re similarly priced and both have high ceilings. Which one is going to produce more on any given night is essentially a coin flip, so I prefer the cheaper one in cash games and the lower-owned one in tournaments. I will say that I’m a little concerned by Williamson’s production this season as he has only averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute compared to 1.21 points per minute in the games that he played with Ingram active last year. Still, his 29.4 percent usage rate this season is about the same as last year. His assist rate is down a few points, but his rebounding rate is up a few points. My best guess is that we just see his per-minute production increase going forward, but I’m at least a little bit concerned. Ingram, on the other hand, has been excellent this season with 1.27 DraftKings points per minute. He leads the team with a 30.0 percent usage rate and a 28.3 percent assist rate. I think that the gap in production between him and Williamson closes as the season goes on, but I still expect Ingram to average around 1.15 to 1.20 points per minute.
I don’t have much interest in the rest of this game, though Bledsoe continues to be underpriced at only $5,100 on FanDuel. He’s going to be inconsistent this season because he’s never going to be the best scorer or rebounder on the floor and, other than his stints with the second unit, he will have to compete with Ingram and Ball for playmaking opportunities as well. That said, he is capable of contributing in every statistical category and he should play around 30 minutes in most games so he’s someone to target when his price is low.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($8,400), Zion Williamson ($7,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($8,400), Zion Williamson ($7,500), Eric Bledsoe ($5,100)
Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors (+2): 233.5
Sacramento Kings
It wouldn’t be an NBA season without drama on the Kings. Marvin Bagley’s dad apparently wants him traded, and De’Aaron Fox‘s dad apparently agrees that would be a good idea. None of that should matter for DFS purposes- at least I hope not. Tyrese Haliburton is out for his second straight game and DaQuan Jeffries will miss this one as well. Neither injury should matter much as Glenn Robinson III soaked up 20.6 minutes last game with Haliburton out, meaning there are only about 6 minutes left to distribute elsewhere.
This game should be very productive for DFS. Fox has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 28.4 percent usage rate and 28.9 percent assist rate. His 52.1 percent true shooting rate is a little bit lower than last year’s 55.8 percent and I expect that Fox returns to his 1.2 fantasy point per minute average sooner than later.
After Fox there are a lot of question marks, but also a lot of upside. Buddy Hield has been extremely disappointing so far this season as he’s only averaged 0.78 fantasy points per minute with a 19.6 percent usage rate. Marvin Bagley’s high usage rate replacing guys like Nemanja Bjelica and Trevor Ariza from last season’s starting lineup is a negative for Hield, but I still have trouble believing he doesn’t end up at least getting 22 to 23 percent usage this season. He’s playing big minutes in competitive games still. His play so far this season makes it tough to trust him at his DraftKings salary, but his FanDuel salary clearly factors in his recent performance.
Richaun Holmes’ playing time was shaky to start the season, but he’s played 32, 36 and 33 minutes in his last three games. He’s always been a reliable fantasy producer when he’s on the floor and it seems that he will after a big role with Sacramento this season after all. It should definitely make us feel better about Holmes that Hassan Whiteside isn’t in the rotation (at least for now). He’s averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season and is 11th in rebound chances per game despite only averaging 28.8 minutes.
Bagley is a bit less reliable than Holmes since he hasn’t played more than 27 minutes in a game yet this season. He’s averaged 0.95 fantasy points per minute with a 25.6 percent usage rate, so the opportunity is there, and he has a high ceiling, it’s just tougher to rely on him based on playing time so far this season. Harrison Barnes has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season and is affordably priced. He’s not the sexiest option, but he’s averaged 35.4 minutes per game this season and is coming off a 38 minute game against Houston.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($8,200), Richaun Holmes ($5,600), Harrison Barnes ($5,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($8,000), Buddy Hield ($5,700), Richaun Holmes ($6,300), Marvin Bagley ($4,800)
Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry dropped 62 real-life points last night while everyone was watching the dumpster fire of a primetime NFL game. Curry had “struggled” somewhat this season but, in reality, his struggles had more to do with us wanting him to score 50 points a night than they had to do with how he was actually playing. He’s always one of the highest upside plays on the slate and he’s underpriced relative to a lot of the other expensive players. He has a 34.3 percent usage rate and 35.2 percent assist rate this season while averaging 1.52 DraftKings points per minute. I also expect that the return of Draymond Green will help Curry as it is an additional playmaker that can improve the offense’s efficiency and it’s also just a player that he is familiar with.
Andrew Wiggins is the second option here as he has a 23.9 percent usage rate this season and has averaged 33.1 minutes per game, with at least 33 minutes played in each of his last four. Wiggins is never particularly exciting to roster, but he’s just about $500 underpriced on both sites so I expect to have a lot of him. Kelly Oubre isn’t as reliable as Wiggins (which feels like a ridiculous sentence to type), but I think we can start attacking his price point in tournaments. He’s gotten off to an awful start this season with a 36.3 percent true shooting rate compared to his career average of 56 percent. There is no question he’s going to shoot better as the season goes on. I think his playing time as suffered as a result of his poor shooting as well. I think that sooner than later we start getting 33 or 34 minutes from Oubre regularly and he returns to being the 0.95 to 1 fantasy point per minute player that we saw last season. The bright side for Oubre is that he has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season despite not being able to shoot. There’s nowhere for him to go but up, yet he’s priced for his recent performance.
James Wiseman posted a double-double in 21 minutes last night. On one hand, I think he’s underpriced for his upside because he appears to be a good DFS producer with 1.08 DraftKings points per minute so far this season. On the other hand, he costs us a center position and has averaged 22.2 minutes per game this season with a max of 25. I think that he’s cheap enough that he can be rostered, but just keep in mind that there’s only so much he can really be expected to do in at most 25 minutes of action.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,300), Andrew Wiggins ($6,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,500), Andrew Wiggins ($6,300), Kelly Oubre ($5,200), James Wiseman ($4,600)
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