The NBA DFS Deep Dive is our primary in-depth daily fantasy basketball article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for any format.
Note: With a nine game slate, we’re going to take a page out of Adam “ShipMyMoney” Scherer’s book, and push the first run of this column with two-thirds of the games then add the final three. If you do not find the late games, check back shortly for the updated version.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Feb. 14
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors (-8.0) 229.5
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves come into this one getting with their superstar center Karl-Anthony Towns in tow. Towns returned from his bout with COVID-19 – a relatively serious one by all accounts – and has looked immediately back to himself. That is to say, a superstar center playing on a bad team. Towns has averaged 31.2 minutes in the two games since his return, putting up 21.5 real life points and soaking up 24.7% of the usage along with a 32.7% rebounding rate and a 14.3% assist rate. The only question mark with Towns overall would be the length of time we get to see him. Typically Towns will push toward a reliable 35 minutes per night, he has been somewhat below that over this return stretch so far, with the team saying he needs to recover lung function. Towns, along with the rest of his team, does not stand out in any interesting way in Awesemo’s metrics this evening. He is appropriately priced for what we can project at this point, and the field is on him at relatively appropriate rates.
After Towns, there is simply not a lot to like on the Timberwolves squad tonight. We can mix and match to our heart’s content with a number of capable mid-tier players who are not drawing significant attention on either site, but there are no true standouts. Of the list, Malik Beasley looks like a solid option.
Beasley should see his full complement of minutes and will be playing without D’Angelo Russell on the floor once again, making him the team’s secondary option behind Towns. In a small 76 minute sample size playing alongside the likely primary unit, with Towns in and Russell out, Beasley has maintained a 26.6% usage rate, and put up 1.04 FanDuel and 1.09 DraftKings points per minute, outstripping his seasonal number.
The remaining pieces, including Ricky Rubio, Anthony Edwards and, as a value play, Jordan McLaughin, are all simply “fine.” Edwards stands out for a 1.01 fantasy point per minute rate playing alongside the likely primary unit, and it is encouraging to see the rookie first overall pick maintain a 22.2% usage rate in that situation. Rubio is right on his seasonal mark with a 0.88 fantasy point per minute rate in the situation, he is slightly underpriced on FanDuel.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None / Malik Beasley $7,300
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None / Malik Beasley $7,300
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Toronto Raptors
Taking a look at Awesemo’s boom/bust tool is a great way to put a game like this in perspective. Sorting by the optimal lineup appearance rate metric, we end up with the top four players all from the Raptors side of the contest on FanDuel, and the top three on DraftKings. The Raptors are simply the more talented squad, and the present a few better looking NBA DFS picks for the day.
The team primarily revolves around their big three of Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet. As was discussed on this morning’s strategy show, all three players produce at highly similar rates of fantasy scoring, separated by less 0.1 fantasy points per minute from top to bottom. Figuring out which of the three is going to be the night’s best option is the rub.
On tonight’s slate, with all three at full health and the potential return of rotation piece OG Anunoby, it remains a guessing game. On a minutes basis, Awesemo has VanVleet projected for the most run, which lands him as the middle option. The 1.10 fantasy point per minute producer is clearly capable of a heat check upside scoring game, and can contribute in other ways as well. Over the team’s last five games, he has averaged 17.4 real life points and picks up a 40.2% assist rate, outstripping the team’s nominal point guard Kyle Lowry. VanVleet will be the most popular option among the three on FanDuel and appears in the optimal lineup with the most frequency. He will be the least popular on DraftKings, and will land in the fewest optimal lineups in simulations.
Kyle Lowry stands out given his price. The 1.00 fantasy point per minute producer has been the least productive of the group, and is now priced down to $7,600 on FanDuel and a generous $7,300 on DraftKings, where he lands in 14.5% of optimal lineups. He has been on his seasonal usage mark of 21.7% over the team’s last five games, and nothing truly stands out about his season-long performance, though his assist rate is down slightly. Ultimatley, Lowry appears to be exactly what we know him to be on this slate. He is a fine mix and match option if you can fit him into your salary, but not someone to go out of your way for.
Siakam is a similar play as well. He produces 1.10 fantasy points per minute and lands basically between the other two in terms of Awesemo’s optimal lineup appearance rate on both sites. The concerning factor about Siakam for NBA DFS purposes today is his ownership on DraftKings, which looks out of line with the frequency with which we are seeing him in the optimal lineup for the price. Siakam could certainly get there on his production, but the field appears to be rostering him far too frequently. On FanDuel, he is going slightly underowned, given a significantly higher price.
On the early board, the other standout option could potentially be Normal Powell as a $6,500 shooting guard on FanDuel and a $6,900 shooting guard or small forward on the other site. Powell will largely lose relevance if OG Anunoby comes back, but if that doesn’t happen he is slightly in play as a 0.88 fantasy point per minute producer who will see 35 minutes. Chris Boucher is also slate-relevant, particularly on FanDuel, where he stands out as a somewhat under-the-radar power forward play. The 1.31 fantasy point per minute producer simply needs court time. Awesemo has him projected for a 25-minute night and he becomes interesting at under 10% public exposure.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kyle Lowry – $7,300, Pascal Siakam $7,900
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet – $8,500, Chris Boucher – $7,200, Normal Powell $6,500 (w/o Anunoby)
San Antonio Spurs @ Charlotte Hornets (+2.0) 228.5
San Antonio Spurs
The visiting Spurs are favored over a Charlotte team that is probably better for NBA DFS players than it is on the real life court. With one of the higher totals on the slate, and a close point spread, this game could be a relevant source of fantasy points for us tonight, if we can parse through the various options on the board.
The Spurs remain without forward LaMarcus Aldridge for the foreseeable future. In the five games since Aldridge hit the shelf, DeMar DeRozan has predictably led the team in usage at a 24.9% clip, putting up 23.2 real life points in his 33.5 minutes per game. DeRozan is a known and frustrating commodity for NBA DFS, when he is in the right situation he can become a strong option for production, but in an anecdotal sense, he seems to prime us then let us down. Still, the numbers dictate that DeRozan is a strong play tonight, given the usage, scoring and the high-end assist rate (42.0% over the team’s last five). He stands out on FanDuel where he is a $7,600 shooting guard, landing in a significant share of optimal lineups, though he will be very popular on the site. On DraftKings, he falls slightly down Awesemo’s board due to a higher price and his positional slotting at small forward and power forward.
Despite the recent return of fellow guard Derrick White, point guard Dejounte Murray has maintained his NBA DFS relevance, averaging 23.4% usage over the team’s most recent five games, putting up 15.4 real life points in his 30 minutes per game, adding a 23.4% rebounding rate and a 26.0% assist rate. Murray adds upside with his ability to pad peripheral stats as well, averaging 2.6 steals per game. Murray is appropriately priced and does not stand out on the board on either site as a supreme value, but he is a very quality plug-in option when we have salary and want a reliable low-owned option to differentiate lineup construction without straying from production.
Keldon Johnson remains in play at the small forward spot, primarily based on his salary. The fantasy point production has been at 0.94 points per minute, which is strong when he pulling over 30 minutes per game. Over the team’s last five, Johnson has seen 27.2 minutes and averaged 11.6 real life points per game, down from his season-long marks of 30 minutes and 14.3 real life points, and his rebounding rate has fallen from 25.7% to 16.3%. The impact to production has his price back to a realistic point on both sites, and Johnson comes up in enough shares of the optimal lineup that he is in play, and perhaps even slightly over-owned on FanDuel.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: DeMar DeRozan – $8,000, Keldon Johnson – $5,600
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: DeMar DeRozan – $7,600, Keldon Johnson – $5,200
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets are a team that appears entirely comprised of mid-range NBA DFS options who can at the right time dramatically exceed their fantasy point projections. The issue is figuring out when we will get those ceiling games and when we will get simply standard production from the group, particularly in the crowded backcourt with emerging star rookie LaMelo Ball forcing his way into the discussion on a nightly basis. The team will be without power forward PJ Washington as well as both Cody and Caleb Martin once again.
Ball is averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute on the season, and has seized minutes and attention. The stellar playmaker has surprised early in his career with his scoring ability and efficiency, and adds significant peripheral stats. There is a stark price difference on Ball between the sites tonight, DraftKings has him as an $8,700 point guard option which is landing him squarely in the “fine” category. On FanDuel, Ball costs just $7,800 and looks like one of the better point guards on the slate, despite his popularity. Ball has led the team in usage over the last five games – several that did not include Devonte’ Graham – at 26.7% and he adds an excellent 35.2% assist rate along with an 18.6% rebounding rate and 2.2 stocks per game, he is a star in the making and appears underpriced on the blue site.
Ball draws some of the focus off of quality teammates Gordon Hayward, Devonte’ Graham and Terry Rozier. Of the trio, Hayward looks to be the most in play for tonight’s slate on both sites. The small forward has led the team in minutes all season, seeing 35.4 per game and leading the team with 22.3 real life points, he is all the way back from his devastating injury two years ago. Hayward maintains his steady usage and production regardless of what goes on around him, checking in with a 25.6% usage rate, 18.5% rebounding and 20.9% assist over the last five. Hayward is currently listed as probable for the night, after dealing with some back soreness, keep an eye on status heading into lock.
Rozier and Graham both see plenty of time on the court when the team is fully healthy, but neither has cracked the 1.0 fantasy point per minute mark on the season, and both look like mix and match options overall. Graham is drawing a significant ownership share on FanDuel and has some legs in the optimal lineup appearance rate metric as well, though the scoring dependent guard is likely too popular for the position and money. Graham sees just around 20% usage this season, down from last year’s 24.7% mark, and it has had an impact on his overall upside. The price is reasonable, but the fantasy points are a question mark. Rozier does not appear to be in play as anything more than a mix-in on either site.
Center Cody Zeller has seen popularity over recent games, given his price and the steady minutes. Without Washington in the frontcourt, he is interesting on this slate at just $5,100 on the singular center FanDuel slate and even for $6,300 on DraftKings, where he is a mix-in multi-center option at low ownership.
Overall, the Hornets primary options stand out far more on FanDuel than on DraftKings tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LaMelo Ball – $8,700, Gordon Hayward – $7,500
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LaMelo Ball – $7,800, Gordon Hayward – $7,300, Cody Zeller – $5,100
New Orleans Pelicans @ Detroit Pistons (+4.5) 220.5
One of the main “meh” matchups of the night from a game perspective, the favored Pelicans come into Detroit looking like a squad lacking a standout NBA DFS option. The team is fine, and has several reliable producers, but they simply do not rank out as the best available options at any of their positions.
Team star Zion Williamson is one of the more reliable sources of just about 40 fantasy points on a nightly basis. He racks up 1.21 per minute and averages 32.6 minutes per game. Williamson consumes more than 26% of the team’s usage on a nightly basis, producing 24.3 real life points per game, though he has seen a decline in his rebounding rate over the team’s past five games, coming up with just a 13.5% share, compared to his season-long 22% rate. The decline can be partly attributed to playing some of his recent minutes with Willy Hernangomez also on the court. Williamson is simply priced appropriately for his 40 points of fantasy production, with little room or expectation for a ceiling game.
Teammate Brandon Ingram looks like the best Pelicans option on FanDuel, given a reasonable optimal lineup appearance rate in Awesemo’s metrics. The 1.14 fantasy point per minute producer is a mix and match option at a small forward spot that has better choices available, but he is by no means off the blue site board. On DraftKings, Ingram costs more but adds power forward eligibility. His flexibility and low public exposure are the primary attributes on that site, he does not appear in optimal lineups with significant frequency.
The remaining options are Eric Bledsoe, Lonzo Ball and center Steven Adams, neither of whom look like particularly shiny objects on this slate. Ball has been extremely hot from behind the three point arc of late, after a freezing cold start to his season, and he has never been shy about taking shots. If he gets on a heater he could rapidly outpace his season-long 0.97 fantasy point per minute rate as an off-the-radar option, but nothing suggests that he is a steady play. Bledsoe is probably slightly underpriced for his historical production, but is still finding his way in this role, turning in just 0.82 fantasy points per minute this season. Adams does not appear to have significant upside on a large slate with numerous frontcourt options.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None / Brandon Ingram – $8,400
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None / Brandon Ingram – $8,200
Detroit Pistons
On the other side of this tilt, the hometown Pistons present three potentially relevant options for NBA DFS and little else in terms of fantasy or real life basketball production. The team is simply bad, but we don’t need a good team to find fantasy scoring. As should surprise no one who has paid attention this season, Jerami Grant leads the way on both sites again tonight. Grant leads the team in scoring and usage, fulfilling his promise as their primary free agent acquisition, and far exceeding the expectations of most. Getting 36.2 minutes per game for the season, Grant has averaged 23.3 real life points on his 25.8% usage, adding a 17.4% rebounding rate and 16.7% assist rate that help pad his stats slightly beyond scoring. Grant slots in as an affordable small forward option at just $7,600 on FanDuel and a choice at either forward spot on DraftKings for $7,400. he is the team’s leader in both optimal lineup appearance rate and boom score probability on Awesemo’s board for both sites.
Blake Griffin is past his prime. You know it, I know it, the whole NBA DFS world knows it. Fortunately, he is not priced as prime Blake Griffin. In fact, on FanDuel, he is actually underpriced for this version of Blake Griffin. As always, take the names off the back of the jerseys and play the numbers. Griffin has produced a 0.80 fantasy point per minute rate so far this year, while seeing 31.3 minutes per game. He manages just 12.3 real life points per game, with a 19.5% rebounding rate and 26% assist rate that fill out his numbers. For the money, Griffin is very much in play as a power forward on the blue site, though he loses some luster on the DraftKings board, where we can simply flex better options into the position.
The third banana in the offense, manning the point guard spot in the absence of rookie Killian Hayes and the void of Derrick Rose following his trade to the Knicks, we get Delon Wright. One of the darlings of the optimal lineup appearance rate column early in the season, Wright has seen his salary increase by roughly $2,000 in recent weeks, given his role and production, which dramatically changes the nature of the play. The 0.97 fantasy point per minute producer is a $7,200 point guard on FanDuel, and there are simply better options at that tier of spend. He is more in play on DraftKings, where we can roster him for just $6,400, but that will naturally lead to him being more popular, which could push us into negative leverage territory. Wright requires just a 15.9% usage rate over the last five games, producing a steady 33.9% assist rate and adding some rebounding ability, he is in play as a mix and match.
The remaining situation to keep an eye on is the status of center Mason Plumlee, who is dealing with an elbow injury. Plumlee is questionable for Sunday’s contest, and his absence would create another significant opportunity for Isaiah Stewart at value. At just $4,000 on FanDuel and $3,600 on DraftKings, Stewart will rocket up the board heading into lock if we have news that Plumlee is out, becoming one of the fundamental value building blocks on the slate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jerami Grant – $7,400 (Isaiah Stewart – $3,600 w/o Plumlee)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jerami Grant – $7,600, Blake Griffin – $5,200 (Isaiah Stewart – $4,000 w/o Plumlee)
Portland Trailblazers @ Dallas Mavericks (-5) 236
Portland Trailblazers
With the highest total on the slate and a number of interesting options available, this game looks like one of the night’s major points of interest for NBA DFS gamers. The shorthanded Blazers will remain without star guard CJ McCollum and center Jusuf Nurkic – both dealing with longer-term injuries – and are unlikely to return Rodney Hood for this one. This will leave Damian Lillard and a collection of role players to handle the Mavericks.
Lillard is the obvious standout play on both sites from the Blazers side of the game. He remains well under the $10,000 salary threshold, having not produced the anticipated massive uptick in numbers with McCollum sidelined. In the 12 games since McCollum’s injury, Lillard has averaged 35.2 minutes and 30.7 real life points, up from his 29 point seasonal average, but not in a meaningful way. He has seen usage jump, but only from 30.5% to 32.5%, though his assist rate has spiked from 45.7% to 58.3% over the sample. Lillard seems like a player who is ready to bubble over and produce a monster night for NBA DFS soon enough, playing in the highest totaled game on the slate in what should be a fast paced contest that he needs to keep his team alive in, tonight could be that night.
With a climbing price, power forward Robert Covington is finally slipping off the board in Awesemo’s various metrics, coming up in fewer than five percent of optimal lineups in simulations today for either site. Instead, the value play on this team has shifted to Gary Trent and, to some degree, center Enes Kanter. Of the pair, Kanter is the more reliable for both a floor and a ceiling of fantasy point production, but Trent offers interesting point per dollar upside. Both land in a respectable but not highly noteworthy number of optimal lineups in simulations, and are in play on both sites. Kanter is the more interesting of the pair, the big man has produced 1.20 fantasy points per minute this season, leading the team with a monster 46.2% rebounding rate.
Derrick Jones Jr. and Carmelo Anthony are off the board as anything beyond low volume mix-in plays. Neither is expected to get enough minutes to matter, Jones is projected for 26 and produces 0.67 fantasy points per minute, while Anthony has just a 21 minute projection for his 0.93 fantasy points per minute rate. If news were to emerge that suggested Anthony was in line for 30 minutes, he would be rendered immediately more interesting at the price.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard – $9,600
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard – $9,500, Gary Trent Jr. – $5,800, Enes Kanter – $6,600
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks primary choices are pretty easy to nail down on most slates, their names are Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. Beyond the team’s superstar point guard and injury-prone second banana (no I’m not at all bitter) former Knicks lottery pick power forward, there are a litany of role players who become more relevant with teammate absence, but do not stand out among a healthy squad.
For the money, Doncic is simply one of the top plays on either site. His 1.53 fantasy point per minute rate ranks third among available options on the entire slate at any position – trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic and hilariously tied with Mo Bamba – and is always relevant, even when priced at or north of $11,000. Doncic sees a team leading 35.3 minutes per game, producing 28.5 real life points on his 35.3% usage. He contributes a 27.5% rebounding rate that is stellar for a guard, and a whopping 54.5% assist rate. Over the team’s last 15 games, roughly the sample since Porzingis’ return, Doncic has had a 34% usage rate to go with a 24.8% rebounding rate and 50.9% assist rate, while maintaining his consistently terrific fantasy point production. In 106 minutes playing alongside both Porzingis and Tim Hardaway, Doncic has a 1.55 fantasy point per minute rate this season. He stands out as one of the optimal lineup appearance rate leaders on the board for both sites and looks like a highly relevant pay-up option tonight.
In the same situation, Porzingis has averaged 1.11 fantasy points per minute rate, down from his season long 1.24 rate, though he is highly relevant as an upper-mid salary range power forward option on FanDuel, where he maintains a quality rate of appearances in simulated optimal lineups. On DraftKings, the additional salary ask of $8,500 takes Porzingis off the board, despite adding center eligibility. There are simply too many more affordable moving parts on the site.
Among the team’s other options, only Maxi Kleber on FanDuel and Tim Hardaway on both sites seem to have any shot of truly projectable relevance, and both of those are only as mix-in options. Hardaway is what he is every day, a scoring depenent player who produces 0.81 fantasy points per minute and is appropriately priced and slightly popular. Kleber has the potential to produce upside, given his 28 minute projection for just $3,800 at the power forward spot on FanDuel, but he will be a popular value play and the field is rostering him at a pace that far exceeds the frequency with which we see him land in the optimal lineup in simulations. With just a nine percent usage rate, Kleber is a player who needs to get us there with his rebounding and blocks, which he should be able to do in this matchup for the cost.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic – $11,100, Tim Hardaway – $4,600
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic – $11,300, Kristaps Porzingis – $8,000, Maxi Kleber – $3,800
Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder (+11.5) 228.5
One of the league’s best teams arrives in Oklahoma City to take on one of the league’s worst, catching them still mired in a morass of missing men. The Bucks should dominate the shorthanded Thunder, as evidenced by a monster point spread. While we do not project blowouts and expect stars to perform even when they happen, the idea of the Bucks blowing the doors off this game and sitting their key players down the stretch does nibble at the brain on this one.
As always, the Bucks discussion begins with superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. The slate’s leader in fantasy points per minute at a gargantuan 1.60 – down significantly from his unreal 1.86 mark last season – comes into this tilt with a salary that matches that of Luka Doncic on FanDuel, and at an affordable $10,900 on DraftKings. He is one of hte most relevant players on the slate and is always a strong pay-up consideration. With nine games and plenty of value, there is simply no reason to ignore the upside. Antetokounmpo is simply rocksteady, over the team’s most recent five games, he has produced 32.6 real life points in his 35.3 minutes per game at 34.5% usage, adding a healthy 36.9% rebounding rate and 24.1% assist rate. He racks up fantsay points in bunches and should have no issues doing so against an Oklahoma City squad largely bereft of talent.
Antetokounmpo’s wingman, Khris Middleton, is a standout play in his own right, when priced appropriately. At just $8,000 on FanDuel and $7,800 with positional flexibility on DraftKings, that appears to be the case tonight. Middleton has put up a 1.16 fantasy point per minute rate this year, largely in-line with the 1.19 we saw from him last season. For the year he has averaged 32.7 minutes, putting up 20.6 real life points, a steady 17.7% rebounding rate and a high-end 33.6% assist rate that flies under the radar when assessing his value. Middleton is likely to produce and seems like a slightly underappreciated asset for this slate on both sites.
The balance of the Bucks make up a broad range of mix and match options at varying positions and price tiers. While none stand out, any of Donte DiVincenzo, Bobby Portis or Brook Lopez should be at least playable low-rent options.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo – $10,900, Khris Middleton – $7,800
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo – $11,200, Khris Middleton – $8,000
Oklahoma City Thunder
One day soon, with any luck, we will all be able to play NBA DFS again without having to worry about the Thunder. That day is not today. With their ongoing list of walking wounded, the Thunder have been supremely relevant for value and mid-range plays for the last two weeks. The team has been largely without point guard star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who returned briefly before being sidelined again. His absence is exacerbated by the poorly timed injuries to backups George Hill and Theodore Maledon, leaving Hamidou Diallo as the team’s primary ball handler.
Diallo has stepped into the role with aplomb, averaging 16.1 real life points in 33.1 minutes and just 20% usage, while adding a 20.3% rebounding rate and a 23.5% assist rate. Even with his price climbing to $6,800 on FanDuel and $7,100 on DraftKings, Diallo looks like a key part of the slate again tonight, he is among the leaders in Awesemo’s optimal lineup appearance metric on the boom/bust tool, and will be owned to a degree that makes sense to exceed.
Diallo’s running mate, center Al Horford, is priced at $6,900 on both sites. He has shown significant value of late as well, handling a large volume of touches and seeing a boosted assist rate, at 26.2% usage and a 30.5% assist mark. Horford adds a steady 22.8% rebounding rate and could easily reach slate-relevance. The upside could be limited in general, however, which takes some of the appeal and ranks Horford more as an also-ran on Awesemo’s board on both sites.
The team’s frontcourt role players appear to have more relevance, given their low prices and potential for significant run. Darius Bazely slots in for just $6,100 on both sites, though he appears more interesting as a FanDuel power forward, coming up in well over 10% of optimal lineups without drawing massive attention from the public. Bazely averages 0.80 fantasy points per minute, and is projected for a 32 minute night, a mark he could easily exceed.
Isaiah Roby has frustrated NBA DFS players significantly of late, which could make him less popular than he “should” be on tonight’s slate. Roby stacks up 0.95 fantasy points per minute through the season and is priced at just $4,000 on DraftKings, where he is playable as either a power forward or a center. This should put him in play as a relatively key building block on the site, and he appears in a wide swath of optimal lineups in Awesemo’s simulations. On FanDuel, he is on the board, but in a less significant way, appearing about half as frequently in optimal lineups and adding $700 to the price tag.
Justin Jackson and Luguentz Dort should both see enough time on the court to be relevant mix and match options as well. Dort has produced 0.69 fantasy points per minute this season and is projected for more than 30 at the small forward position, adding shooting guard eligibility and picking up some additional optimal lineups on DraftKings. Jackson is a solid value option at the two and three on both sites, where he costs only $4,200 for his 0.74 fantasy point per minute rate, though he is projected for just a 26 minute night.
The Thunder are full of value, the key is finding it, rostering it and then hoping it does not scratch moments after lock.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Hamidou Diallo – $7,100, Isaiah Roby – $4,000, Justin Jackson – $4,200
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Hamidou Diallo – $6,800, Darius Bazley – $6,100
Orlando Magic @ Phoenix Suns (-10.5) 214
Orlando Magic
The frustratingly banged-up Magic are in Arizona to take on the Suns as major underdogs tonight, and they do not look like the best fantasy options on the board, for a change. With the price finally climbing on star center Nikola Vucevic, he looks more like a strong mix and match center option than the absolute lock of a play he has been in recent games.
There is nothing negative to say about the performance, Vucevic has delivered 1.38 fantasy points per minute for the season, and has been rock solid since the injury to frontcourt mate Aaron Gordon. This is simply about the price and other available options at the position. The now-pricey big man has averaged 29.2 real life points in 35.3 minutes per game and 30.8% usage over the team’s six contests since Gordon was hurt. He adds dynamite rates to that production, pulling down 39.6% of the team’s rebounds and producing 23.4% of their assists. If you can afford him, there is nothing wrong with a pivot to Vucevic, you will be doing so with positive leverage on both sites.
On DraftKings, the rest of the team simply falls into the mix and match range, while Terrence Ross pokes his head above water on FanDuel, slightly. The scoring dependent guard is projected for 31 minutes at just $5,200 as a shooting guard on the site. He produces 0.83 fantasy points per minute this season and, as usual, will need his shot to fall to have any chance at relevance. Still, he comes up just enough in the optimal lineup in simulations that it makes his under seven percent ownership stand out as a spot to leverage some value off the field at a weaker position.
Rostering some shares of both Evan Fournier and Cole Anthony would not be a mistake, though neither stands out as the strong option we have seen Anthony appear as in recent games. The main issue with either player is their currently questionable status for the game, and the potential to have significant late swapping to do. We don’t gain enough ground on the field by optimal rates or leverage to make it a play worth pursuing in any significant volume.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic – $9,800
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic – $9,900, Terrence Ross – $5,200
Phoenix Suns
While the team above presented nothing more than mix and match, their opponents could be in line for even fewer shares in NBA DFS lineups tonight. The recent return of Devin Booker from his short absence has returned most of the Suns to their previous status as appropriately priced players who have upside caps based on the cannibalization of one another’s production.
Veteran superstar point guard Chris Paul stands out again as the leading option on a list of middling fantasy options from the Suns. He lands in fewer than 10% of optimal lineups on either site, despite the healthy 1.14 fantasy points per minute rates. Paul is slightly under-owned, but does not have highly projectable trajectory toward a ceiling score, given his drop to 1.06 fantasy points per minute in 476 minutes playing alongside Booker, who also does not stand out.
The price tag of $7,800 on FanDuel and $8,200 on DraftKings is keeping the scoring star shooting guard off the board on both sites. He has produced at just a 0.88 fantasy point per minute rate in his time playing alongside Paul. The team will attempt to stagger minutes to get both players significant attention, but it has not worked out well for fantasy production. Booker is in a spot where he will need to have a heat check game to hit relevance.
The other member of the Suns drawing fantasy interest is in the frontcourt, but in a twist worthy of George RR Martin, it is not Deandre Ayton but Frank Kaminsky who has seen relevance in recent games. Kaminsky costs just $5,000 on both sites and is projected for 24 minutes at a 1.08 fantasy point per minute rate. That should be enough to keep him in play as a lower-middle option that not a lot of NBA DFS players will go to. Kaminsky’s most appealing asset is his leverage score, or lack of popularity compared to potential for production, on both sites. While Ayton and his monster rebounding rate are too much to pay up to, Kaminsky could be just perfectly off the radar and productive enough to be a terrific GPP option.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None / Chris Paul – $7,700
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None / Chris Paul – $7,600, Frank Kaminsky – $5,000
Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets (+3) 217
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers show comes to Denver where the altitude and gravity (watch the morning Strategy Show to get callbacks later in the day) will have no discernable impact on proceedings. The primary question with the Lakers is the status of star big man Anthony Davis, who is wrestling with Achilles tendinosis, not a good condition for what he is required to do on a nightly basis. Davis played on Friday, but is questionable for tonight and could realistically sit. Despite a quality matchup against a Western Conference contender, there is realistically no reason to force Davis into action. Monitor the news for status heading into lock.
If Davis does play, which we are projecting him for currently, he will render himself and LeBron James as simply quality pay-up options at their respective positions. Both players are stars and produce fantastic fantasy scoring rates. James comes up with a 1.38 fantasy point per minute rate, while Davis nearly matches him with a 1.36, but both are priced relative to that performance and do not stand point significantly. James is the more interesting of the pair on both sites.
On DraftKings, he picks up point guard eligibility, which lands him in a broader segment of optimal lineups in simulations than on the blue site. The NBA DFS utility will be enhanced, but only slightly, if Davis does not play. In 428 minutes without Davis on the floor this season, regardless of who else he plays with, James averages 1.42 fantasy points per minute. The uptick is nice, and we can reasonably expect more production, but it is yet to make James a must-play. Ultimately, he remains LeBron James in most situations. The public will be underweight on him tonight, making him a prime target for a some spend-up leverage.
Beyond Batman and Robin, there is no standout option on the Lakers tonight. Kyle Kuzma saw 32 minutes in a tight contest in the team’s most recent game, playing the entire fourth quarter, but he is an unreliable option on whom we have no news. If Davis sits and Kuzma starts in his place, it will at least put him on the board, though he still would not be a great value at the price. In 277 minutes playing alongside James and without Davis, Kuzma has produced 0.95 fantasy points per minute this season.
Other options like Montrezl Harrell, Dennis Schroeder and Talen Horton-Tucker are nothing more than very low volume mix-in players.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None/LeBron James – $10,200
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None/LeBron James – $10,400
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets are slight home underdogs in a game with a middling total on the slate, but they come to this one with several relevant NBA DFS picks for our consideration. Another team that is widely wounded, the short-handed Nuggets come in with a questionable tag on star point guard Jamal Murray, and already knowing that they will be without Will Barton, Gary Harris and PJ Dozier once again. This should create some value and upside opportunity.
The obvious name on the board is Nikola Jokic every time the Nuggets play. The superstar center averages 1.57 fantasy points per minute, racking up scoring in different ways, with his excellent season-long mark of 26.7 real life points in 35.9 minutes per game. Jokic commands 29.1% of the team’s usage, a heavy mark but not overly so for such a productive star. He achieves this by threading in a 35.8% rebounding rate and an astounding 41.6% assist rate that would land him among leading point guards on most slates in the category. Jokic is typically a no-brainer option to plug and play when we have the salary, which is the only obstacle to rostering him on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Forwards JaMychal Green and Michael Porter Jr. should be the primary beneficiaries from all the changes in the rotation, although we can likely add Monte Morris to that list if Jamal Murray also sits. As of the most recent update to the boom/bust tool, the forwards are leading the way in terms of optimal lineup rates, though the secret is out on both of them and they will be popular.
Green produces 0.96 fantasy points per minute over the course of this season, up from him previous mark of 0.82 last year, while Porter has come in at a 1.10 clip that essentially matches his previous production. In an extremely small 29 minute sample where both forwards played alongside Jokic without Barton or Harris, Porter produced 1.16 fantasy points per minute, while Green came in at 0.62, which is largely attributable to small sample happenstance. The distribution of production will be interesting to watch, but the numbers suggest there is room for both players to succeed in a longer sample, and they are among the leaders in optimal lineup rate and boom score probability in Awesemo’s numbers.
In 53 minutes without any of Barton, Harris, Dozier or Jamal Murray on the floor, Monte Morris has produced 0.94 fantasy points per minute this season, up from his standard 0.79 rate, he will be a clear value play if Murray does not go. Morris costs just $4,100 on FanDuel and $4,200 on DraftKings.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: JaMychal Green – $4,200, Michael Porter Jr. – $5,900, Nikola Jokic – $10,700
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: JaMychal Green – $4,400, Michael Porter Jr. – $5,800, Nikola Jokic – $10,600
Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings (+1.0) 229
The Grizzlies and Kings will meet in California in one of the slate’s three late games, and what looks to be a tight highly totaled contest with significant NBA DFS picks relevance. The teams are both middle of the pack in terms of overall quality, with several standout players on either side. The game should be a fun watch and will be popular in rosters on both sites.
The Grizzlies remain banged up coming into this one, but star point guard Ja Morant and center Jonas Valanciunas are both back to health and expected to play again tonight. They make up the team’s primary production, with Valanciunas providing 1.27 fantasy points per minute and Morant trailing him at 1.15. Both players appear slightly underpriced on FanDuel, where they cost just $7,100 each and bring interesting value to the table. In the 10 games since returning to the lineup, Morant has seen his minutes (which inexplicably started in the 30s) drop into the mid-20s then steadily climb into the mid-30s, averaging exactly 30.0 minutes per game. He has contributed 15.6 real life points and 8.1 assists per game over the stretch, quality production with suggestion of the upside we know is in the player for the price.
Valanciunas has been back from his five game absence for the last three, averaging 28.9 minutes with a high-water mark of 33:30 in the second contest. Valanciunas is a productive big for the Grizzlies, producing a 40.4% rebounding rate and 13% assist rate to go with his real-life points average of 16.1 in 27.5 minute per game for the season. Again, this is a player with some upside for the cost on both sites, but he is more appealing on FanDuel, despite some popularity.
Along with the team’s two stars, several role players are on the board as well. Kyle Anderson is a productive fantasy player at the right price, for $5,900 at the small forward spot on FanDuel he has upside with the 1.04 fantasy point per minute production. Adding power forward eligibility on DraftKings thrusts him into relevance on that site as well, where his $6,300 salary is a flexible mix and match piece
Dillon Brooks is a scoring dependent guard who will need to sink some shots to truly hit value. His 0.91 fantasy point per minute production is an uptick from last season, but he draws more than 65% of his fantasy production from point scoring, adding just a 15.6% assist rate and 12.9% rebounding rate, which pushes him off value when he isn’t draining shots. Brooks is a fine option to mix and match for the price, the public exposure is preventing him from potentially being more than that.
Grayson Allen and John Konchar can work their way into value again, primarily on DraftKings. Allen in particular costs just $4,300 and plays both shooting guard and small forward, while landing in more than 10% of optimal lineups for the cost and drawing a very nice leverage mark in Awesemo’s numbers. Konchar is less likely unless we get news about more minutes, while Allen is projected for a 31 minute night, we have Konchar at just 18, limiting his upside.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Ja Morant – $7,600, Jonas Valanciunas – $7,400, Grayson Allen – $4,300, Dillon Brooks $5,400
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Ja Morant – $7,100, Jonas Valanciunas – $7,100, Kyle Anderson – $5,900, Dillon Brooks – $5,300
Sacramento Kings
The Kings are home for this one and bring some NBA DFS picks relevance of their own, where it comes from depends on star point guard De’Aaron Fox’s ability to play tonight. Less so, the status of Marvin Bagley will also have some impact. Following Fox’s frustrating fantasy Friday, where he was in and out of the starting lineup several times before and after lock, Fox ultimately sat and created late-swap value around some of his interesting teammates, who would be great plays if he does not go again tonight.
Assuming Fox does play, he is the only member of the Kings with significant numbers and projectable upside. He lands in a fair share of optimal lineups in Awesemo’s simulations and, at 1.19 fantasy points per minute, should surprise exactly no one. He will be slightly less popular than the potential production warrants, and with time to swap off of the play if he does not go, it makes sense to get beyond the field on the point guard unless we know for certain he is out.
If Fox does not play, significant opportunity will emerge for rookie Tyrese Haliburton, who has done nothing but impress the league and rip the hearts out of Knicks fans who get to watch Obi Toppin and dream, again, of what could have been with a better draft pick. Haliburton costs just $6,100 on FanDuel and $6,600 on DratKings, where he adds shooting guard eligibility. He would become slate-relevant with an uptick in usage and several additional minutes, which he would see in Fox’s absence. The 0.97 fantasy point per minute rookie has been at 1.07 in 314 minutes without Fox on the court this season, regardless of who he plays with. He is not priced for that production and should draw attention if we get Fox news.
Bagley is currently projected as playing, and joins Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes as mix and match options that are “fine” for the slate. Barnes and Hield would become slightly more interesting just on general quality if Bagley does not play, though the primary beneficiaries would be more the big men, where we would see Richaun Holmes and Hassan Whiteside extend slightly, and Nemanja Bjelica potentially gain relevance. None of them are on the board without news, though Whiteside could be argued as useful on DraftKings despite his current 15 minute projection.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox (if in) – $9,000 / Tyrese Haliburton (if no Fox) – $6,600
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox (if in) – $8,700 / Tyrese Haliburton (if no Fox) – $6,100
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Los Angeles Clippers (-11.5) 221
Last on the board, but not in our lineups, the final game presents several compelling NBA DFS picks for our lineups on both sites tonight. The primary option on both sites from the visiting Cavaliers is a name that frequently invokes groans from fantasy basketball players, but Andre Drummond is coming in with a significant projection for the cost, particularly on the blue site.
Drummond is an overpriced player who is a poor fit for modern day real life basketball. For NBA DFS purposes, he can be absolute gold on the right night, given his 1.47 fantasy point per minute rate – among the leaders on any slate. Drummond gains relevance when he is priced down, which is the case on the singular center FanDuel slate tonight. At just $6,500, Drummond finds himself in a large number of optimal lineups for such a big slate. The center has a monster 53.4% rebounding rate on the season, and averages 17.5 real life points per game in 28.9 minutes. The primary impact to Drummond’s production could come if the Cavaliers deploy him alongside Jarret Allen, a situation that has resulted in Drummond dropping to 1.26 fantasy points per minute, while Allen provides 0.75, a bigger hit to the younger player than the the rebounding machine. Allen is not drawing significant marks in any DFS category on the Awesemo board.
Collin Sexton, the team’s primary scoring option, looks like the other primary piece from the Cavaliers tonight, and he truly only has appeal on FanDuel, where he will be somewhat over-owned. He is one of the better options as an affordable mid-range shooting guard on the site, however, and should be considered despite the popularity. Sexton has produced 0.95 fantasy points per minute for the season, and is projected for a 35 minute night. In the team’s most recent five games, Sexton has averaged 17.6 real life points, drawing just 21.9% usage and adding a 29.8% assist share, though he only contributes an 8.6% rebounding rate. Sexton relies on scoring the ball, both himself and helping his teammates do so, when that happens he delivers for NBA DFS.
The balance of the Cavaliers roster is at best playable, but not much beyond that. Taurean Prince could see some value if he continues in an expanded role, but we do not have him projected that way. Darius Garland is overpriced at just $5,800 and $5,600 for the current production, though he sees some utility on DraftKings. None of the other players are producing rates or seeing minutes projections that are noteworthy.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond – $7,700, Collin Sexton – $6,700, Darius Garland – $5,600
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond – $6,500, Collin Sexton – $6,300
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers will be without star guard Paul George, the 1A to Kawhi Leonard’s 1 in the team’s hierarchy. His absence leaves Leonard as the primary option for Clippers offense, but we are not receiving a salary discount of any kind on the play. Leonard is priced up to $10,200 at the small forward spot on FanDuel and lands at $9,700 on DraftKings, where he looks slightly better for the salary and with popularity below 10%.
In the Clippers most recent four games, all without George, Leonard has seen a team-leading 33.1% usage rate, producing 29.3 real life points in 35.3 minutes per game. He adds fantasy upside with his 25.2% rebounding and 24.2% assist rates as well as his season-long average of 2.4 stocks per game. Leonard is an obvious situational go-to and looks good but not great for tonight’s NBA DFS action. He appears in 10-12% of optimal lineups in simulations, which is not a leading mark at his price, the main concern when rostering him.
After Leonard, the pool dries up fairly quickly. Serge Ibaka is drawing minimal attention but does not land as an optimal play with significant frequency and he always struggles with getting beyond the 24-26 minute mark. Nicolas Batum has produced some quality games this season, but he has seen his price climb to match and does not provide much value at $5,300 on FanDuel, though he is more in play for $4,900 with positional flexibility on DraftKings.
No other member of the Clippers is currently on the board as a relevant option, unless we get significant news between now and game time.
DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard – $9,700
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard – $10,200
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