This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and myself from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
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NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Jan. 6
Houston Rockets at Indiana Pacers (-2): 224.5
Houston Rockets
Danuel House is out again tonight after missing Houston’s last game. He will join Chris Clemons, Mason Jones, Kenyon Martin Jr.  and Ben McLemore on the sidelines. David Nwaba started in House’s place in their last game and played 29.0 minutes.
Update: Christian Wood is questionable. DeMarcus Cousins becomes a top value if Wood sits.
James Harden, John Wall and Wood are the main pieces here, as will always be the case when the Rockets are at full strength. Harden was disappointing against Dallas last time out, but he still played 38.5 minutes and posted a double-double. He only shot 29.4 percent from the field and 27.3 percent from three, which kept his fantasy production down. Harden has played 65 minutes alongside Wall, including the preseason, and has a 30.9 percent usage rate and 38.2 percent assist rate. I expect the usage rate to increase a few points as the sample increases and, based on Harden’s rates alongside Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook in previous seasons, we should expect about 1.6 DraftKings points per minute from Harden. He’s appropriately priced so he looks like a high-upside tournament option who probably won’t be a great cash option since we’re going to have plenty of underpriced players to choose from on an 11-game slate.
Wall has a 23.6 percent usage rate and 27.0 percent assist rate in his 65 minutes alongside Harden. He was in foul trouble against Dallas, but still managed to play 33 minutes. He looks healthy and he’s been playing huge minutes right out of the gate. Wall’s salary has jumped on FanDuel, but he still looks like a great value on DraftKings.
Wood scares me because he’s expensive and we don’t have much of a track record of him playing regular minutes in the NBA at all, much less alongside Harden and Wall. That said, every piece of data that we do have so far points to him being a great fantasy producer. He has a 26.3 percent usage rate in the 44 minutes that he’s played alongside both of Harden and Wall. He averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute with Detroit last season. He’s averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute so far this season. We can also expect him to play at least 32-33 minutes tonight. It’s going to take a while for my gut to fully trust him, but the numbers so far back him up as a high-upside play.
The rest of the Rockets are mostly unappealing as they’re extremely low-usage players who don’t contribute much in the way of peripherals. Cousins does pique my interest as a large field tournament option tonight. His salary has deservedly come down as he has just been the back-up center to Wood. In that role, we can’t project him for more than 16 minutes. The reason that I’m somewhat interested tonight is that I think we could possibly see Houston play bigger and use Cousins alongside Wood. They’ve only played two possessions next to each other this season, so it’s definitely not a given that Houston uses this lineup. But, if they want to, they could use Cousins and Wood together with the Pacers playing Myles Turner alongside Domantas Sabonis. Cousins has averaged 1.54 DraftKings points per minute in 81 minutes so far, including the preseason. He shouldn’t be someone that you’re investing a lot of your money in tonight, but I wanted to mention the size of the Indiana frontcourt because Cousins is going to win someone a GPP in whatever game he randomly gets 22-24 minutes and this is a matchup where I at least think it’s possible.
Nwaba played 29 minutes as a starter against Dallas and I assume he starts again tonight. He’s close to minimum salary and projects as a decent point-per-dollar play, but I’m hopeful that we can find some higher upside options with 21 other teams to look at tonight. He’s averaged 0.68 DraftKings points per minute in 97 minutes so far this regular season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: John Wall ($7,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: James Harden ($11,200)
Indiana Pacers
Tonight’s injury report looks the same as it has in recent games for the Pacers with T.J. Warren being the notable inactive player. Warren’s absence has moved Aaron Holiday into the starting lineup, increased playing time for Justin Holiday and Doug McDermott and opened up additional usage for the rest of the starting lineup.
Sabonis has been excellent this season. He’s averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with a 23.5 percent usage rate, 17.5 percent rebounding rate and 26.9 percent assist rate. He’s second on the team in usage and assist rate and leads the team in rebounding rate. Sabonis has also averaged 37 minutes per game through Indiana’s first seven games.
Malcolm Brogdon has averaged 36.9 minutes per game and 1.15 DraftKings points per minute so far this season. He’s third on the team in usage and leads the team with a 28.2 percent assist rate. His salary is slowly climbing, but he still offers value if he’s going to regularly play 38-plus minutes in competitive games.
Victor Oladipo has bounced back nicely so far this season after a relatively disappointing year last year in his return from an Achilles injury. He leads the Pacers with a 24.6 percent usage rate and has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute. By comparison, he averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute last season. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle, but I am encouraged by Oladipo’s production so far. His 61.3 percent true shooting rate this season would be the best of his career by far, but his 50.6 percent true shooting rate last season was the worst of his career. Oladipo looks like a good value at his current price point even if we expect his shooting to regress back to his career averages.
The rest of the Pacers have been priced up to account for their increases in playing time without Warren, so they aren’t particularly appealing options tonight. One possible exception is T.J. McConnell, who is still close to the minimum salary and has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season, but he has an extremely low minutes floor and typically needs there to be foul trouble for someone ahead of him in the rotation in order for him to get enough minutes to be a strong DFS option.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,200), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,000), Victor Oladipo ($7,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($8,800), Malcolm Brogdon ($8,200), Victor Oladipo ($7,200)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic (-5.5): 215
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland is short-handed once again tonight with Dante Exum, Darius Garland, Kevin Love, Kevin Porter Jr. and Dylan Windler all missing from their regular rotation. The good news is that Isaac Okoro is no longer on the injury report, so he should be able to return tonight.
The matchup tonight against the Magic isn’t an appealing one, but there is some value on Cleveland due to the number of players missing from their rotation — particularly on FanDuel where Damyean Dotson and Okoro are close to the minimum salary. Including the preseason, Dotson has averaged 0.59 DraftKings points per minute in 213 minutes and Okoro has averaged 0.54 DraftKings points per minute in 185 minutes, so I don’t want to rely on these guys too much if I don’t have to even though they should both play at least 30 minutes tonight.
Cedi Osman played 38.4 minutes against Orlando last game and would certainly be a viable value option if he gets the same playing time tonight. I’m not confident that will be the case, however, as he played almost the entire first half after Exum was injured 50 seconds into the game. He then started and played about 16 minutes in the second half. I think that Okoro’s return makes it more likely that we see 28-32 minutes from Osman tonight than that we get another 38 minutes.
Andre Drummond and Collin Sexton remain the most appealing parts of the Cavs for me. Drummond played 32.2 minutes against Orlando on Monday (and lost about six minutes to a blowout), which was a great sign because his playing time has been a bit of an issue this season. I still don’t think we can project him higher than 32 minutes because JaVale McGee has played a big role as his back-up so far this season, but Drummond is productive enough on a per-minute basis that he still grades out well in 31 or 32 minutes. He’s averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute and led the team with a 29.1 percent usage rate and 27.2 percent rebounding rate so far this season. Drummond leads the NBA with 21.3 rebound chances per game, despite only averaging 29.7 minutes per game.
Sexton can score in bunches, but he doesn’t contribute much else from a DFS standpoint. He should get more assist opportunities with Darius Garland sidelined, however. Sexton is second on the Cavs with 9.9 potential assists per game. His 26 percent usage rate is second on the team and he’s averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute while averaging 37.7 minutes per game. He is affordably priced on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($8,600), Collin Sexton ($7,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($9,500), Collin Sexton ($7,100), Damyean Dotson ($3,500), Isaac Okoro ($3,600)
Orlando Magic
The Magic have listed Evan Fournier as questionable again for tonight’s game. They’ll still be without Jonathan Isaac, Chuma Okeke and Al-Farouq Aminu and Michael Carter-Williams will join them on the sidelines tonight as well. If Fournier plays, not much should change from Orlando’s rotation over the last couple of games as he would slide into the starting lineup in place of Carter-Williams. Fournier would be a reasonable value at $5,300 on DraftKings and FanDuel. If Fournier sits, we could see more playing time for Cole Anthony. It’s also worth noting that James Ennis isn’t on the injury report, so he should be re-joining the rotation tonight.
Nikola Vucevic is the main piece here as he is always a high-upside option. He contributes points, rebounds and assists and will typically play 32-34 minutes in competitive games. He’s averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute this season and 1.32 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season. While he has a high ceiling, he can be difficult to prioritize because the center position is so deep and his price point isn’t the best compared to other centers — like Drummond who is $100 less expensive on DraftKings.
Markelle Fultz and Aaron Gordon have some appeal at mid-range price points, though they strike me more as GPP options than cash plays. Fultz has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.2 percent usage rate this season and should see around 32 minutes if this game is competitive. Gordon’s playing time has been limited, which makes it difficult to trust him at his price point. He still has a high ceiling, however, and he actually leads the Magic starters with a 25 percent usage rate so far this season. He’s averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute and should do well in this matchup against the Cavs.
Terrence Ross is a good scorer off the bench, who should see a couple extra minutes with Carter-Williams and, possibly, Fournier out. If they both miss this game, we can probably count on Ross for 30-32 minutes while, if Fournier plays, I would expect 28-30 minutes from Ross. His salary is getting a little high for him to be trusted as a scoring dependent player, but he does lead all Orlando players this season with a 26 percent usage rate. His salary is more affordable on FanDuel than DraftKings.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($8,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($8,700), Markelle Fultz ($5,800)
Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers (-6.5): 232.5
Washington Wizards
We don’t have an injury report yet for Washington but, as far as I know, they’re fully healthy and they haven’t played since Sunday so nobody should be resting.
Westbrook has averaged 37.5 minutes per game this season while leading the NBA with 19.4 potential assists per game, two more than second place Nikola Jokic, and ranking 13th with 16.8 rebound chances per game — the most for a guard. Westbrook is also second on the Wizards with a 28.8 percent usage rate this season and he’s averaged 1.41 DraftKings points per minute despite a horrendous 45.2 percent true shooting rate that is seven to eight points lower than his career average of 52.9 percent. While Westbrook’s 15.6 drives per game is tied for the 11th-most in the league, it’s 5.2 fewer drives per 36 minutes than he averaged last season which is probably part of the reason for his decrease in true shooting rate. He attempted 12 free throws last game but, prior to that, hadn’t attempted more than six in a game yet this season. I expect we see his drive numbers increase going forward and that his shooting rate increases along with it. The Sixers can make life tough for Westbrook around the rim, but he contributes so much outside of scoring that he remains a high-floor, high-ceiling player tonight.
Bradley Beal won’t have the playmaking responsibilities this season alongside Westbrook that he did last year, but his salary has dropped a little further than I think that it should. In five games alongside Westbrook this season, Beal still has a 34.3 percent usage rate and 18.1 percent assist rate. Scott Brooks has been staggering Beal and Westbrook’s minutes, so we’re still getting plenty of minutes where Beal is running the offense.
Beyond Westbrook and Beal, there are a couple of other things to like about the Wizards tonight. Rui Hachimura missed the first few games of the season and then played 25 and 19 minutes in his first two games back. He logged 33 minutes against Brooklyn on Sunday, so he appears to be back to full strength. He averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in his rookie season last year and is priced down because of his slow start to the season. Similarly, Davis Bertans has been brought along slowly to start the season, playing more than 21 minutes once in his first seven games (26 minutes against Chicago on December 29th). Bertans played 30.7 minutes against Brooklyn on Sunday and he needs to be a key contributor if the Wizards are going to turn their season around. He averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute last season and is clearly underpriced for his role on this team if Washington is finally ready to turn him lose. An increase in playing time for Bertans should also lead to more assists for Westbrook as well as more room for him to drive to the rim (it may not be a coincidence that the first game Westbrook got to the line 10+ times was the first game that Bertans played 30+ minutes).
Finally, we have Thomas Bryant who has fit very nicely with Westbrook to start the season. He benefits from easy buckets running the floor in transition, but he’s also capable of stretching the floor and knocking down three-pointers. Bryant has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 29.4 minutes per game this season. His salary has come up and he’ll have his hands full with Joel Embiid on the defensive end, so he’s my least favorite of the Wizards who I’ve mentioned even though he still has a nice ceiling for DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($10,200), Bradley Beal ($9,000), Rui Hachimura ($5,100), Davis Bertans ($4,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($10,700), Rui Hachimura ($5,000), Davis Bertans ($4,600)
Philadelphia 76ers
Embiid only played 24.9 minutes against Charlotte on Monday as Ben Simmons was the only starter to even step on the floor in the fourth quarter of the Sixers’ 17-point win. Embiid played about 17 first half minutes, however, and we should still expect to see 34-36 minutes from him as long as this game is competitive. He should have plenty of success against a Washington team that doesn’t do much well defensively and also doesn’t have good rebounding bigs. Embiid has averaged 1.50 DraftKings points per minute this season and should add to it tonight.
This is also a favorable matchup for the rest of the Sixers starters as Simmons should thrive in transition against Washington and Seth Curry and Tobias Harris should see plenty of open looks on the perimeter — with Harris also benefitting from additional rebounds. Curry should also benefit from the continued absence of Furkan Korkmaz as it helps to solidify his 32-plus minutes in competitive games. Harris has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season, in part because his rebounding rate has increased from 11.2 percent last season to 13.0 percent this season as he no longer has to play minutes alongside both of Embiid and Al Horford. I don’t expect his 1.25 point per minute pace to continue as he is shooting above his career averages, but I do think he will be more productive this season than he was last season when he averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute.
Overall, I love this game and expect to get a lot of exposure to a lot of different players.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($9,900), Tobias Harris ($7,700), Seth Curry ($5,400), Ben Simmons ($8,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Joel Embiid ($9,900), Ben Simmons ($8,700), Tobias Harris ($7,900), Seth Curry ($5,200)
Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks (-6): 231.5
Charlotte Hornets
LaMelo Ball played 30.4 minutes again in Charlotte’s last game. On one hand, he’s benefitted from blowout run in three of his last four games. On the other hand, he played about 30 minutes in the competitive game that was in there as well. I think he’s played his way into a sizeable role in competitive games and, since he is a rookie that the Hornets want to develop as quickly as possible, he gets blowout run as well. Ball has been great from a DFS standpoint this season, averaging 1.21 DraftKings points per minute. He is second on the Hornets in potential assists per game and fifth in rebound chances per game (first among guards) despite only averaging 24 minutes per game for the season.
Gordon Hayward has played at least 34 minutes in all of Charlotte’s competitive games this season and he has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute. I think that the emergence of LaMelo Ball could have a negative impact on Hayward since Ball will steal shots, assists and rebounds but Hayward still should be at least a one fantasy point per minute player. He should end up being a strong mid-range play on FanDuel and DraftKings as long as this game stays close.
Terry Rozier and Devonte’ Graham both have plenty of upside in a high-scoring game at their respective price points, but it’s also difficult to trust either of them — especially with Ball forcing his way into more minutes. Rozier has been the high usage option with 25.1 percent usage rate this season while Graham only has a 17.1 percent usage rate but leads the team with a 29.9 percent assist rate. I think Graham is hurt the most by Ball’s emergence because he’s no longer playing 33-34 minutes per game and he isn’t shooting enough to be highly productive in fewer minutes.
P.J. Washington did it again last game. He posted a monster first half that had me excited that I had rostered him at low ownership and then he finished up with a good but completely unexciting game. Everything I’ve said about him in previous games still applies, however, and his salary is dropping. He has averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute this season and he’s the back-up center, which has led to increased usage and rebounding opportunities.
It’s been kind of weird to me that everyone has abandoned the Bismack Biyombo bandwagon. He’s not the most exciting DFS play, but he is still cheap and he’s playing close to 30 minutes in competitive games with Cody Zeller sidelined. Biyombo has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season and 1 DraftKings point per minute in 13 starts without Zeller since the start of last season. He’s far from a priority at a stacked center position, but I think he does offer a little more upside than people give him credit for.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LaMelo Ball ($6,000), Gordon Hayward ($7,400), P.J. Washington ($5,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Gordon Hayward ($7,700), P.J. Washington ($5,200)
Atlanta Hawks
Bogdan Bogdanovic is listed as probable for this game while Rajon Rondo, Danilo Gallinari, Onyeka Okongwu, Tony Snell and Kris Dunn are out. This has been the case for most of the season, so salaries on DraftKings and FanDuel factor these injuries in at this point.
Trae Young has only averaged 33.2 minutes per game this season, but we did see him play 39.6 minutes against the Knicks in his last game. This was great to see, as we need him to be able to play 36-plus minutes at his price point. Young has averaged 1.43 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 35.0 percent usage rate, so we haven’t seen the addition of better supporting players take any food out of Young’s mouth. He’s fourth in the league with 19.3 drives per game, which has led to at least 14 free throw attempts in five of seven games for Young this season. Young also leads the league with 15.3 pick-and-roll possessions per game, which is 2.5 more than the next closest player, and he ranks in the 77th percentile in efficiency. The Hornets have actually allowed the fewest pick-and-roll possessions per game and the fewest points per possession to pick-and-roll ball-handlers this season, so it could be a tough matchup for Young’s playing style. I don’t want to read too much into it because it can be noisy in general and also because only three of Charlotte’s first seven games have been against teams that rank in the top half of the league in pick-and-roll possessions, but it will at least be something interesting to pay attention to.
Not surprisingly for a team that’s taking away the pick-and-roll, the Hornets have allowed the sixth-most three-point attempts per game this season and the most spot-up field goal attempts. Bogdanovic leads the Hawks with 6.1 catch-and-shoot field goal attempts this season while De’Andre Hunter leads the team with 5.4 spot-up possessions per game. I don’t want to go too crazy with play-type data on a massive slate like this, but this is a spot that seems like it could allow for increased usage for Atlanta’s wings.
Clint Capela played another 30.6 minutes against the Knicks on Monday. His salary is slowly rising, but there’s still value here as he has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute so far for the Hawks. His production could also be hurt if Charlotte is able to take the pick-and-roll away from Atlanta, but he contributes so much in the way of rebounds and defensive stats that scoring isn’t a big concern for me. John Collins played almost all of the back-up center minutes and that is a trend that will be great for his DFS production if it continues. I expect it to happen again tonight against Charlotte as their back-up center is P.J. Washington so it makes a ton of sense for the Hawks to use Collins over Bruno Fernando. Collins played 33.1 minutes against the Knicks, giving us 30-plus minutes for three of the last four games after a slow start to the season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($9,600), John Collins ($7,200), Clint Capela ($6,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($9,400), John Collins ($6,800), Clint Capela ($6,500), Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,700)
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat (-3): 219
Boston Celtics
Marcus Smart and Jeff Teague are both questionable after missing Boston’s last game. Kemba Walker, Romeo Langford and Javonte Green are all out. If Smart and Teague both miss the game, Payton Pritchard should play another 28-32 minutes and Tremont Waters can be expected to play around 24 minutes if he starts again. If Smart is out and Teague is in, then we can look to Teague as a solid value assuming he will play at least 24-26 minutes.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are the main scoring options for Boston. Tatum has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute this season while Brown has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute. Both have usage rates between 29 and 30 percent, with Tatum posting a slightly higher assist rate and a higher rebounding rate. I don’t anticipate either of them being priorities in this matchup on a massive slate, but Tatum is my preferred option given their salaries.
Overall, this is an unappealing matchup on a slate full of games that should be high scoring. We could have some value, however, if Smart and Teague are both out again.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($9,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($9,400)
Miami Heat
I don’t love the matchup for Miami either, but their pricing is a bit more favorable. Jimmy Butler is inexpensive as he has only played 26.8 and 25.7 minutes in his two games back from injury. Both of those games were blowouts, however, so I’m not concerned about his playing time at all. I fully expect 33-plus minutes if this game is competitive and Butler has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season and 1.18 DraftKings points per minute since joining Miami last season.
Kelly Olynyk joined the starting lineup last game and played 27.5 minutes over three quarters. Bam Adebayo said he wasn’t sure if Olynyk would start alongside him again tonight but, considering the Heat won that game by 28 points, I’m assuming that he will. Olynyk gained power forward eligibility on DraftKings, making him much more valuable than he was when he was only a center.  Olynyk has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute this season and 0.98 DraftKings points per minute since the start of last season.
The rest of Miami’s main rotation players are talented enough that they could certainly put together a big game,  Adebayo in particular, but it’s close to impossible for me to really be interested in them in the context of the entire slate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler ($7,300), Kelly Olynyk (if starting – $4,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jimmy Butler ($8,100), Kelly Olynyk (if starting – $5,000)
Utah Jazz at New York Knicks (+7.5): 213.5
Utah Jazz
Utah is on the second half of a back-to-back and a three in four. Their injury report doesn’t have any new additions, however, so I assume they’ll be at full strength.
Donovan Mitchell started off slowly this season, but he’s started to turn things around as more of his shots have started to fall, as expected. He leads the team with a 32 percent usage rate and 25.5 percent assist rate. His salary has increased as his performance has gotten better, so he isn’t drastically underpriced like he was for a couple of games recently, but he still has tournament appeal as someone who can give us 50 fantasy points in his good games.
Rudy Gobert offers some value at his current price point as well. He’s averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute this season. I don’t expect him to continue producing at that rate as his rebounding and assist rates are up from last season despite not seeing an increase in opportunities. His salary hasn’t moved to reflect the increased production, however, so he’s still fairly priced with a relatively high ceiling.
Outside of Mitchell and Gobert, nobody on Utah has much interest for me as long as the team is fully healthy because the players that I would be interested in have all seen their prices increase after some good performances at the beginning of the season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($7,800), Rudy Gobert ($7,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($8,200), Rudy Gobert ($8,200)
New York Knicks
Alec Burks remains out for the Knicks as do Obi Toppin and Frank Ntilikina. Reggie Bullock and Nerlens Noel are questionable while Dennis Smith and Omari Spellman are probable.
We’ll have to wait to see exactly who is active for the Knicks tonight, but we know that we can rely on Julius Randle and R.J. Barrett to play huge minutes. Barrett leads the NBA with 38.8 minutes per game this season and Randle is second with 38.4 minutes per game. Randle has also been extremely productive this season, averaging 1.25 DraftKings points per minute while leading the tea in usage, rebounding rate and assist rate. Randle is a nightly triple-double threat in his role with this version of the Knicks. His salary has quickly increased on DraftKings as a result, making him more of a GPP option, but FanDuel has been slower to adjust so he’s a little bit more valuable there. Barrett isn’t very good, but he’s still averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute which gives him some value just based on how many minutes he plays, especially on FanDuel.
We’ve seen Elfrid Payton play huge minutes in some games this season while not even closing out other games, including New York’s most recent game. He still has a high ceiling on FanDuel and DraftKings because if he is playing well he will play a ton of minutes, but he’s a risky option now that the Knicks have Austin Rivers, Immanuel Quickley and Smith available to handle point guard duties. I’m a lot more willing to stomach that risk at his FanDuel salary than his DraftKings salary.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($9,500), R.J. Barrett ($7,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($9,000), R.J. Barrett ($6,500), Elfrid Payton ($5,300)
Detroit Pistons at Milwaukee Bucks (-12): 225.5
Detroit Pistons
Killian Hayes is out and Josh Jackson is questionable. Blake Griffin should return after resting on Monday. It remains to be seen who fills Hayes’ spot in the starting lineup. My guess is that we see Delon Wright get the starting nod, though this doesn’t mean he plays more than 20-22 minutes, but we could also see the Pistons do, well, just about anything else because they’re the Pistons and they’re not really playing for anything.
Pricing on the Pistons is pretty tight since we’re coming off a game without Griffin and now he’s back. The highest upside options here if you’re looking for a run-back to pair with one of the Bucks are Griffin, Jerami Grant and Derrick Rose. Griffin has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 21.1 percent usage rate, Grant has averaged 1.05 points per minute with a 26 percent usage rate and Rose has average 1.16 points per minute with a 31.5 percent usage rate. That said, none of these guys stand out on this slate.
If Jackson sits, it increases the likelihood that Wright plays more minutes, but I’m still not overly confident since Rose will most likely be the closing point guard and the Pistons have used a lot of different players this season in order to play Wright as little as possible, for whatever reason. Even without Jackson, we could see Wright play 22 minutes with more playing time going to Wayne Ellington and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: None
Milwaukee Bucks
Pat Connaughton is the only normal rotation player that is out tonight for Milwaukee.
There is a lot of blowout risk here, as there usually is for the Bucks, but there is also a lot of upside. Giannis Antetokounmpo is still priced to his average playing time and not his ceiling, so he’s a strong play despite the blowout risk. He’s playing 36 minutes in competitive games this season, so his ceiling is even higher than in previous years, and he has averaged 1.88 DraftKings points per minute since last season so we only need 29-30 minutes of average production for him to get us 55 DraftKings points. Since it is likely he produced at an above average rate if the Bucks blow out their opponent, there is a lot of value at this salary.
Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have averaged 1.29 and 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season and they’re both secondary options that we can use in tournaments if we aren’t able to afford Giannis. Both players should play 34-36 minutes if this game stays close but, if it doesn’t, it’s extremely likely that one of these three has an above average game since so much of Milwaukee’s scoring is concentrated between this trio.
Brook Lopez played 30.2 minutes against Detroit on Monday and his salary is really inexpensive. The problem with Lopez is that he loses minutes in blowouts and he isn’t one of the main three scorers that typically causes the game to blowout. This gives him a pretty low floor since there are games where he isn’t really involved and also doesn’t get a lot of minutes. It also gives him upside, however, because his salary factors those games in and he has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute since last season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900), Khris Middleton ($7,500), Jrue Holiday ($6,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400)
Oklahoma City Thunder at New Orleans Pelicans (-8): 213.5
Oklahoma City Thunder
There aren’t any normal rotation members on the injury report, except Aleksej Pokusevski who will be out again. His absence doesn’t have an impact for DFS.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s salary continues to fall as he has been, predictably, inconsistent. He’s talented and has tons of opportunity, but he’s also a young player on a team with a very limited supporting cast. He has another tough matchup tonight against a Pelicans’ squad that has two strong backcourt defenders in Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe. Gilgeous-Alexander’s 27.6 percent usage rate this season gives him a high ceiling and I’ll be interested in tournament if he’s low owned.
Darius Bazley posted another big game on Monday with 35.5 DraftKings points in 26 minutes in Oklahoma City’s blowout loss to the Heat. Bazley has a lot more opportunity to produce stats this season than he did last year, so we will see more big games out of him as a result. Still, he’s not a priority in a tough matchup on a slate full of strong options.
If you’re playing a lot of tournament lineups, I would consider using George Hill as a value option. He’s typically playing 25 or 26 minutes in competitive games and has averaged 0.92 DraftKings points per minute so far this season as he has a bigger role with the Thunder than he did with the Bucks last season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,500)
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are entirely healthy for this one, so the first place to look is Brandon Ingram. Ingram has been great this season, with a 31.4 percent usage rate. He’s averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute and he has a team-leading 30.1 percent assist rate to go along with his team-leading usage rate.
Zion Williamson has been relatively disappointing this season, averaging only 1.10 DraftKings points per minute compared to 1.24 DraftKings points per minute last season. I think that his production increases as the season goes on and the fact he can play 34-plus minutes in competitive games makes him appealing, but I do think Ingram in the better fantasy option — at least for the time being.
Ball has some appeal in tournaments as we can expect at least 33-34 minutes if this game is competitive. He’s only averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he’s averaged 1.04 points per minute since last season.
While correlation isn’t nearly as important in NBA DFS as other sports, this is a game that stands out as a spot to use it. Because Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the only high-usage scorer on the Thunder, I like the idea of using him in lineups that have more than one New Orleans player because if the game is close it’s likely that he is the highest scorer from OKC.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($8,400), Zion Williamson ($7,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($8,800), Zion Williamson ($7,900)
Toronto Raptors at Phoenix Suns (-3): 219
Toronto Raptors
There isn’t any notable injury news here, but keep an eye out for the starting lineup. Alex Len started the second half over Aron Baynes on Monday. I’m not sure if that will lead to a lineup change tonight, but it’s possible. I expect Chris Boucher to be the back-up so, whichever of Baynes or Len doesn’t start, probably won’t play.
Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet are all similarly priced and also project similarly. None of them stand out as top plays, but they all are inexpensive enough that they have tournament appeal. Lowry has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 21.7 percent usage rate while VanVleet has averaged 1.22 DraftKings points per minute with a 24 percent usage rate. It’s too early in the season to announce a changing of the guard from Lowry to VanVleet, but it’s certainly possible that we see VanVleet overtake Lowry as the more productive guard in NBA DFS.
Siakam played 33 minutes against Boston on Monday and left about four minutes on the table due to the blowout. It appears he’s back to normal playing time and he’s relatively inexpensive due to his recent game logs. He’s averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute and should play 36-plus minutes as long as this game is competitive and he avoids foul trouble.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Fred VanVleet ($7,900), Pascal Siakam ($7,800), Kyle Lowry ($7,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Pascal Siakam ($7,500), Kyle Lowry ($7,500), Fred VanVleet ($8,000)
Phoenix Suns
We have some favorable pricing on the three main pieces of the Suns’ offense. Devin Booker is more of a scoring dependent player this season than he was last season thanks to the addition of Chris Paul, but he still leads the team with a 30 percent usage rate. His 19.6 percent assist rate is lower than last season but does increase his floor and ceiling a little bit. Booker can be expected to play at least 34 or 35 minutes if the game is competitive, and that gives him upside at his current salary.
Paul produced about 1.19 DraftKings points per minute with Oklahoma City last year and he’s producing at a similar rate this year with 1.12 points per minute. He played 36 minutes against the Clippers on Sunday, and we can typically expect at least 32 or 33 minutes in competitive games.
Deandre Ayton’s playing time has been a bit concerning this season as he seems to only be playing around 30 minutes even in competitive games. We did see him lose a couple minutes on Sunday to foul trouble, so he possibly would have been closer to 32 or 33 minutes. It’s enough of a concern for me not to prioritize Ayton as one of my favorite plays, but it’s not enough of a concern for me to avoid him in tournaments since his price factors in his recent games. Ayton’s usage rate is down to 19.6 percent so far this season, but he’s still averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute and I would expect we see the usage increase sooner than later.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Devin Booker ($7,900), Chris Paul ($7,000), Deandre Ayton ($7,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Devin Booker ($7,600), Chris Paul ($7,300), Deandre Ayton ($7,200)
Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State Warriors (+1.5): 228
Los Angeles Clippers
Paul George was a late scratch last night and is questionable tonight. Kawhi Leonard could potentially rest on the second half of a back-to-back, though that hasn’t yet been announced. Overall, it’s pretty much impossible to talk about this team with much confidence right now since we don’t know who is going to be playing.
If one of George or Leonard plays and the other doesn’t, they’ll be a priority as they take on a huge role with the other one out. If they both sit, then Lou Williams will need to score more and Patrick Beverley sees his rates increase as well. It would also mean big minutes for Luke Kennard and Nicolas Batum and we would probably see Reggie Jackson play a bigger role off the bench as well.
Serge Ibaka remains an interesting tournament option because he has averaged 1.1 DraftKings points per minute and is typically seeing at least 25 or 26 minutes in competitive games. He didn’t close last night against an extremely small Spurs lineup but still finished with 25.3 minutes played. The volatility in his playing time makes him unappealing in cash games but a strong GPP target since it keeps his salary and ownership down.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,100), Paul George ($8,900 if Leonard sits), Lou Williams ($4,400 if George and/or Leonard sit), Patrick Beverley ($4,000 if George and/or Leonard sit), Luke Kennard ($4,100 if George and/or Leonard sit)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Paul George ($9,00), Kawhi Leonard ($9,600), Serge Ibaka ($5,000), Patrick Beverley ($3,800), Lou Williams ($4,000), Luke Kennard ($3,900) — same caveats about Leonard and/or George sitting as on DraftKings
Golden State Warriors
Stephen Curry has returned to normal with Draymond Green back in the lineup and I don’t think that’s surprising. Playing alongside someone who he is familiar with was likely to get Curry into rhythm and that has been the case. He is still affordable and has averaged 1.55 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.6 percent usage rate this season. Add in that there is a good chance at least one of Leonard or George are out for the Clippers and the matchup becomes better as well.
Andrew Wiggins, Green and Kelly Oubre are solid secondary targets behind Curry as their salaries give them plenty of upside. Green played 28 minutes in his first game back and then 21.2 minutes in three quarters against Sacramento last game, so I’m expecting another 28 minutes or so if the game is competitive tonight. Oubre has shot extremely poorly to start the season, but his salary is down as a result and there’s nowhere for him to go but up. Wiggins has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season and should play at least 34 minutes if the game is competitive.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($9,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($10,000), Andrew Wiggins ($6,500)
Chicago Bulls at Sacramento Kings (-7): 228
Chicago Bulls
Zach LaVine remains a priority from the Bulls as he leads the team in minutes per game and usage rate and ranks second in assist rate. Overall this season, LaVine has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute.
Coby White, Otto Porter, Thaddeus Young and Wendell Carter can all be looked at in tournaments. White is the only one who has averaged over 30 minutes per game this season, but they all average at least 0.90 DraftKings points per minute going back to last season and the three other than White should play at least 26-28 minutes tonight. They are more favorably priced on FanDuel again tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($8,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($8,100), Coby White ($6,200), Otto Porter ($5,600), Wendell Carter Jr. ($4,900), Thaddeus Young ($4,100)
Sacramento Kings
The Kings were destroyed against Golden State their last time out but they get a nice bounce-back spot tonight. De’Aaron Fox is the leader here as we can expect 34-plus minutes in competitive games and he has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Richaun Holmes dealt with massive foul trouble against Golden State and only ended up playing 18.8 minutes. Prior to that game, he had played at least 30 minutes in three straight and there is a good chance that he returns to that tonight. Hassan Whiteside did play 12 minutes off the bench against Golden State and it would hurt Holmes if Whiteside returns to the rotation. Holmes’ salary also increased which makes him more of a tournament option.
Marvin Bagley remains extremely inexpensive on DraftKings and FanDuel. We can’t count on him to play more than about 26 minutes, but he’s cheap enough that we can live with that. He’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute this season but has the upside for more as he has the second highest usage rate on the team behind Fox.
Buddy Hield’s usage rate is only 19.4 percent so far this season but he’s still priced up on DraftKings. On FanDuel, however, he is only $5,200 so we’re paying for his year-to-date production and will be getting a huge discount whenever he starts playing like he has in previous seasons.
Harrison Barnes has been more productive than normal this season, averaging 0.94 DraftKings points per minute and contributing in every category. We can typically rely on 34-35 minutes from Barnes, at least, so he’s an unexciting mid-range option that has a relatively high floor based on playing time.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($8,200), Marvin Bagley ($5,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($7,800), Buddy Hield ($5,200), Marvin Bagley ($4,800)
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