This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
Note: This article takes a very long time to write, especially on slates with a lot of games. In order to get information out earlier in the day, I will post the first few games and then update with the remaining games as I write them on bigger slates. Be sure to check back for updates throughout the afternoon.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Feb. 8
Houston Rockets at Charlotte Hornets (+3): 223.5
Houston Rockets
Update: Eric Gordon and John Wall are both out for Houston. This makes Victor Oladipo a priority, as he has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.8 percent usage rate and 33.6 percent assist rate in 183 minutes without Wall on the floor since joining Houston.
Christian Wood is out again for Houston so we should get another start from DeMarcus Cousins. Cousins has averaged 29.9 minutes per game and 1.48 DraftKings points per minute in five games without Wood this season. He has a 24.5 percent usage rate, 24.1 percent rebounding rate and 17.1 percent assist rate in those games. Cousins also has a 28.6 percent assist rate in 79 minutes alongside Oladipo without Wall compared to 5.3 percent in 41 minutes alongside both of Oladipo and Wall. Finally, the available backcourt minutes should increase playing time for Sterling Brown, who will likely be the back-up point guard. Ben McLemore could re-join the rotation as well.
Wall and Oladipo each played 32 minutes against the Spurs on Saturday and we can expect similar playing time tonight. Wall and Oladipo have played five games together this season. In those games, Wall has averaged 1.42 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.3 percent usage rate and 40.9 percent assist rate while Oladipo has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.0 percent usage rate and 25.3 percent assist rate. I think that it is likely their per-minute production moves closer to each other over a larger sample, but it does appear that Wall is the No. 1 option when they are both active.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: DeMarcus Cousins ($7,100), John Wall ($7,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: DeMarcus Cousins ($6,000), John Wall ($7,400)
Charlotte Hornets
Update: Devonte’ Graham is out.
The Hornets played yesterday, so we don’t have an injury report yet. Graham missed yesterday’s game and, if he is out again tonight, LaMelo Ball should get another start after playing 30.5 minutes in Charlotte’s blowout win yesterday. If Graham returns, it will be interesting to see if Ball remains in the starting lineup or if he returns to the bench. With P.J. Washington back in the lineup, I only expect two of Ball, Graham and Terry Rozier to start but we will have to wait and see which two.
The Rockets have been the most efficient defense in the NBA over the last month. If Graham plays, I don’t have much interest in the Hornets because they would be fully healthy and most of their players are priced up from Washington and Graham missing time.
If Graham is out, it improves the outlook for Rozier and Ball. Rozier has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 22.0 percent usage rate while Ball has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.6 percent usage rate, 12.0 percent rebounding rate and 33.3 percent assist rate.
Washington, Gordon Hayward and Cody Zeller all look like secondary tournament options as they have big enough roles to produce big games, but they aren’t priced particularly well. Hayward leads the team with 36.6 minutes per game over the last month (15 games played) and has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute this season. Zeller has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute and 27.7 minutes per game in his eight starts this season. Washington has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute in his five games with Zeller starting alongside him and he has averaged 30.4 minutes per game over the last month.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LaMelo Ball ($8,300 if starting), Terry Rozier ($6,300 better if Graham is out)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LaMelo Ball ($7,800), Terry Rozier ($6,100)
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Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies (+2): 222.5
Toronto Raptors
O.G. Anunoby is out again for Toronto so we should get another start from Norman Powell. Powell has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute and 32.9 minutes per game in his 10 starts this season.
Memphis has been one of the better defensive teams in the league this season, and they rank fourth in defensive rating over the last month. They are 14th in pace over that span as well, so this sets up as a relatively difficult matchup for the Raptors.
Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry all look like secondary options at their prices in this matchup. All three players have averaged between 35.5 and 36.5 minutes per game over the last month. VanVleet has been the most productive player on a per-minute basis this season with 1.13 DraftKings points per minute, followed by Siakam at 1.10 DraftKings points per minute and Lowry at 1.05 DraftKings points per minute.
Chris Boucher is an interesting option because he is still inexpensive thanks to a prolonged stretch of reduced playing time after his last hot streak. Boucher played 27 minutes two games ago against Brooklyn and then 32 minutes last game against Atlanta. I expected him to get increased playing time against a small Brooklyn team, but I didn’t expect him to play so much against Clint Capela and the Hawks. Jonas Valanciunas is back in action for Memphis and played 24.3 minutes off the bench in their last game. His presence concerns me since he seems like the type of player that the Raptors would be better off using Aron Baynes against, but I was wrong last game and I could certainly be wrong again tonight. Boucher has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute this season, so he looks underpriced as long as he finds a way into at least 22 or 23 minutes. He will be easier to get into lineups on FanDuel since he is a power forward, but he is a high-upside play regardless of site.
Top DraftKings DFS Picks: Chris Boucher ($5,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Chris Boucher ($5,900)
Memphis Grizzlies
Brandon Clarke is out again tonight. De’Anthony Melton is out as well. Gorgui Dieng started in place of Clarke on Saturday. We could see Dieng and Tillman start again tonight but, if Jonas Valanciunas returns to the starting lineup, Dieng would most likely return to the bench.
It’s difficult to trust any of the Grizzlies because Memphis continues to run one of the deeper rotations in the league. Ja Morant led Memphis with 31.1 minutes in a competitive games against the Pelicans on Saturday and Kyle Anderson played 30.2 minutes. Those were the only two players to reach 30 minutes. Melton’s absence could open the door for more playing time for the starters but it could just easily lead to additional minutes for a combination of Desmond Bane, Tyus Jones and/or Grayson Allen.
While none of the Grizzlies look like top options tonight, Morant does still have some upside in tournaments. He has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.8 percent usage rate and 38.9 percent assist rate this season. Dillon Brooks and Valanciunas have upside as well, though they are both risky. Brooks has a 26.2 percent usage rate this season and has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute. He is especially cheap on FanDuel. Valanciunas has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute. If he gets 28 to 30 minutes like he was before Memphis’s COVID layoff he looks like a strong play. If he only gets 24 minutes like he did last game, he is much more difficult to roster.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Ja Morant ($7,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Ja Morant ($7,200), Dillon Brooks ($4,700)
Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls (-3): 238.5
Washington Wizards
Update: Russell Westbrook is out.
The Wizards played yesterday so we don’t have an injury report. Westbrook hasn’t played in a back-to-back yet this season, but Scott Brooks left the door open for him to play tonight in yesterday’s post-game press conference so we will have to wait for more news.
If Westbrook plays, he looks like a great option against a Chicago team that is ninth in pace and 17th in defensive rating over the last month. He has been disappointing in his last two games, but they were both blowout losses which cost him a lot of playing time. He struggled overall in the game against Miami but averaged about 1.50 DraftKings points per minute yesterday. He has been more aggressive since returning from injury and should do well tonight against Chicago.
If Westbrook is out, Bradley Beal becomes an even better option on both FanDuel and DraftKings than he would be with Westbrook active. Beal has averaged 1.56 DraftKings points per minute with a 37.6 percent usage rate and 32.9 percent assist rate in five games without Westbrook this season. He has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute with a 36.9 percent usage rate and 19.5 percent assist rate in 14 games with Westbrook active. Beal looks like a good play either way, particularly on DraftKings, but he is much better if Westbrook rests.
Rui Hachimura and Davis Bertans can be difficult to trust since Beal and Westbrook, if he’s active, take up so much usage. It is likely that they both close tonight against a small Chicago team, so their playing time should be reliable as long as this game is competitive. Hachimura has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute this season while Bertans has averaged 0.74 DraftKings points per minute. Bertans has shot unusually poorly so far this season, however, so we should expect his per-minute production to improve sooner than later.
The center position here is an absolute mess. If you’re playing large field tournaments, like the $4 on DraftKings that has 100,000+ entries, you may want to throw some darts at any of Alex Len, Robin Lopez or Moritz Wagner since they are all extremely inexpensive and produce at strong per-minute rates when given the opportunity. Outside of those tournaments, however, I don’t see much reason to go here. Len started yesterday’s game but only played 7.9 minutes and didn’t step on the floor in the second half. Lopez was the back-up in both halves and played 23 minutes while Wagner played 4 minutes in the first half and then started the second half and finished at 17.1 minutes played. On top of the uncertainty around the three-man center rotation itself, there is also a good chance that Hachimura closes at center in this matchup so there is an extra layer of risk in trying to guess which Wizards’ center will be Brooks’ favorite tonight. If Len or Wagner somehow play 26 minutes, they are probably tournament-winning plays. The problem is that the chances of either of them playing 26 minutes are pretty low and, even if one does, good luck guessing which one it happens to be.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($8,600 if active), Bradley Beal ($9,000 — strong play with or without Westbrook but better without), Rui Hachimura ($5,400), Davis Bertans ($4,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($9,700), Bradley Beal ($10,800 — much better if Westbrook is out), Rui Hachimura ($5,200), Davis Bertans ($4,300)
Chicago Bulls
Wendell Carter, Lauri Markkanen and Otto Porter are all out tonight, so there are a lot of frontcourt minutes available in a great matchup against the Wizards.
Denzel Valentine started Chicago’s last game in place of Markkanen and played 36.6 minutes. There is a good chance that he starts again tonight. Valentine has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and 0.80 DraftKings points per minute in 171 minutes alongside Zach LaVine.
LaVine has averaged 36.3 minutes per game over the last month and 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.5 percent usage rate this season. In 113 minutes alongside Coby White without either of Markkanen or Carter on the floor, LaVine has a 31.9 percent usage rate.
White and Thaddeus Young have high ceilings because of tonight’s excellent matchup. White has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season and 33 minutes per game over the last month. Young has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute and 27.8 minutes per game in eight games without Carter.
Patrick Williams has played about 34 minutes in each of his last two games and should see similar playing time tonight against Washington. He isn’t a great fantasy producer with only 0.75 DraftKings points per minute this season, but his per-minute production should increase because of the matchup. He has also averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute with a 19.4 percent usage rate and 10.6 percent rebounding rate in eight starts without Carter this season compared to 0.72 DraftKings points per minute with a 15.9 percent usage rate and 7.9 percent rebounding rate in 13 starts alongside him.
Garrett Temple and Tomas Satoransky are both worth a look as value options as well given the excellent matchup. Temple only played about 20 minutes last game but, if he plays well, he can easily pick up playing time at the expense of Valentine. He has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute this season. Valentine is the more reliable option assuming he starts again, but Temple will have the opportunity to steal some minutes if he shoots well. Satoransky has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute this season and is capable of playing multiple positions. He played 27 minutes against Orlando last game and I like his chances of getting 24 to 28 minutes again tonight against his former team.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($8,900), Denzel Valentine ($4,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($8,800), Coby White ($5,600), Denzel Valentine ($4,400), Patrick Williams ($4,500)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks (-9.5): 225.5
Minnesota Timberwolves
D’Angelo Russell and Juan Hernangomez are questionable. Karl-Anthony Towns is doubtful. Jarrett Culver is out. Russell sat out the second half of a back-to-back on Saturday, but I’m expecting him to play tonight until I hear otherwise.
Russell played 31.1 minutes against the Thunder on Friday and we should expect another 29 to 31 minutes if he suits up tonight. He has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.3 percent usage rate and 30.5 percent assist rate in 15 games without Towns this season. He looks like a reasonable option at his price point but the relatively low playing time keeps him from being a priority.
Nothing else from the Timberwolves stands out if Russell is active. Malik Beasley and Anthony Edwards are likely to play 30 to 32 minutes, but Beasley has only averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute in 15 games alongside Russell without Towns while Edwards has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute in his five starts alongside Russell. Both players will have opportunities as secondary scorers behind Russell, but they are priced too high to be anything but secondary tournament options on this slate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: D’Angelo Russell ($7,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: D’Angelo Russell ($7,500)
Dallas Mavericks
James Johnson is questionable tonight. Other than Johnson, nobody from Dallas’s rotation is on the injury report.
Minnesota has quietly played better defense recently, ranking 13th in defensive rating over the last month. They are fifth in pace over that time, however, so it still sets up as a favorable matchup for Dallas.
Luka Doncic is the obvious starting point as always. He has averaged 1.67 DraftKings points per minute and 36.1 minutes per game in 13 games played with Porzingis this season. He has a 34.3 percent usage rate, 50.0 percent assist rate and 12.8 percent rebounding rate in those games. There is no reason not to view Doncic as a top play on this slate.
Kristaps Porzingis has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute and 30.4 minutes per game in 13 games played with Doncic this season. In a competitive game, we can expect 31 to 33 minutes from Porzingis. He should have plenty of success against Minnesota’s frontcourt. He has a 27.1 percent usage rate and 14.3 percent rebounding rate in his 13 games this season.
Maxi Kleber played 32.3 minutes against Golden State on Saturday. Previously, he played 20.4 minutes against Golden State in a blowout where he was also affected by foul trouble. In the game before that, Kleber played 32.2 minutes against Atlanta. Barring foul trouble or blowout, I expect 30 to 32 minutes from Kleber tonight against the ‘Wolves. Kleber has averaged 0.77 DraftKings points per minute and 29.6 minutes per game in 11 starts alongside Doncic and Porzingis since the start of last season. Four of those starts have come this season and he has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($11,000), Kristaps Porzingis ($8,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($11,400), Kristaps Porzingis ($8,100)
Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs (-1.5): 232.5
Golden State Warriors
Eric Paschall is questionable tonight. He has missed Golden State’s last couple of games, which has solidified Juan Toscano-Anderson’s playing time with James Wiseman and Kevon Looney also out. Kent Bazemore is another potential beneficiary if Paschall is out as he played 23 minutes last game.
Stephen Curry is coming off another monster performance as he dropped 57 actual points on the Mavericks in a losing effort. Curry isn’t quite as consistent as some of the top-tier DFS options, but that helps to keep his ownership in check when his price rises since those players project a bit better. There is no doubting Curry’s upside, however, as we are less than two months into the season, and he already has games with 57 and 62 real-life points. Overall, he has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.3 percent usage rate and 30.4 percent assist rate this season.
Prices are less favorable on the rest of the Warriors than they have been in recent games. Draymond Green has been excellent without Wiseman, particularly in terms of assists, but he is now much more expensive. He has benefitted from his time at center as he has a 12.4 percent rebounding rate in his three games without Wiseman compared to 9.8 percent for the season. He also has a 40.3 percent assist rate compared to 32.3 percent for the season.
Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre are secondary options tonight as they are too expensive for their average production, but they are inexpensive enough that they will exceed their salary if they perform a little bit better than average. Wiggins has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season while Oubre has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute. While I think they are similar plays, I give a slight edge to Oubre because he has averaged 0.93 fantasy points per minute despite shooting well below his career averages so I think we see that production improve going forward.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($10,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Stephen Curry ($10,100)
San Antonio Spurs
LaMarcus Aldridge and Lonnie Walker are both out tonight for San Antonio. Derrick White started for Walker and played 29.1 minutes on Saturday while Jakob Poeltl got another start in place of Aldridge and played 29.1 minutes as well. Golden State has a small frontcourt so we could potentially see Rudy Gay get more minutes at center with Devin Vassell or Patty Mills picking up additional minutes at the expense of Poeltl or Drew Eubanks.
Golden State has played at the 3rd-fastest pace over the last month but they have also rank 7th in defensive rating over that time. The fast pace makes the defensive efficiency less scary, so I like this spot for the Spurs.
DeMar DeRozan has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.1 percent usage rate and 28.7 percent assist rate in five starts without Aldridge this season. He has averaged 35.4 minutes per game in those starts. Since the beginning of last season, DeRozan has averaged 1.20 DraftKings points per minute and 34.3 minutes per game in 22 starts without Aldridge and with Dejounte Murray active.
Murray has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute in his five starts without Aldridge this season, posting a 24.4 percent usage rate, 22 percent assist rate and 10.5 percent rebounding rate. A potential negative for Murray is that White is in the starting lineup in place of Walker. Murray has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute with a 17.9 percent usage rate and 20.2 percent assist rate in 153 minutes alongside DeRozan and White without Aldridge since the beginning of last season. By comparison, he has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.8 percent usage rate and 21.6 percent assist rate in 446 minutes alongside DeRozan with both of Aldridge and White on the bench.
White and Gay look like strong values tonight. White has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute in 153 minutes alongside DeRozan and Murray without Aldridge since last season and 0.96 DraftKings points per minute overall since the start of last season. We can expect 28 to 30 minutes from White in a pace-up spot tonight. Gay played about 25 minutes last game, including closing both halves over Poeltl. He has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season and this seems like a perfect matchup for him.
Mills played 29 minutes off the bench against Houston. He closed the first half in place of White and then closed the game alongside Murray and White. We could see some three-guard lineups against Golden State tonight as well, in which case Mills has value as he has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute this season. I mentioned Vassell at the top and my thinking is that he could essentially take minutes from Drew Eubanks. Vassell played 15.5 minutes last game and there were about 9 minutes that Eubanks was on the floor with Gay and without Vassell. Golden State’s second unit last game consisted of Brad Wanamaker, Wiggins, Damion Lee, Oubre and Toscano-Anderson. There is absolutely nobody in this group that Drew Eubanks needs to be on the floor to contend with. If Pop agrees, that could lead to an additional 8 or 9 minutes for Vassell with Gay sliding down and playing center.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: DeMar DeRozan ($7,700), Derrick White ($5,100), Rudy Gay ($4,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: DeMar DeRozan ($8,100), Derrick White ($5,500), Rudy Gay ($4,000), Patty Mills ($3,800)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Phoenix Suns (-7.5): 215
Cleveland Cavaliers
Larry Nance Jr. is out for the foreseeable future and Kevin Love remains out. Taurean Prince should move back into the starting lineup without Nance. He has averaged 29.3 minutes per game and 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in four starts without Nance since joining Cleveland.
Andre Drummond has averaged 26.6 minutes per game and 1.53 DraftKings points per minute in 10 games since Jarrett Allen joined the Cavaliers. Drummond is priced down due to his reduced playing time, so he still offers value given his excellent per-minute production. He also played a couple of minutes alongside Allen in the last game that Nance was sidelined and the duo has played a total of 32 minutes together. Phoenix has been starting a big frontcourt and playing Frank Kaminsky alongside Deandre Ayton, so we could see some overlap between Drummond and Allen again tonight which would solidify Drummond’s minutes.
Collin Sexton played 41, 38 and 38 minutes in the last three games that Nance missed. He has the potential to play huge minutes again tonight. Still, he looks like a secondary option as he has a tough matchup against a Suns team that is 6th in defensive rating and 27th in pace over the last month. Sexton has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.3 percent usage rate this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($8,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($7,200)
Phoenix Suns
Chris Paul is questionable. Jae Crowder, Abdel Nader and Cameron Payne are out.
Kaminsky has started the Suns’ last two games in place of Cameron Johnson. He has played 22 and 19 minutes in those games, closing neither of them. Kaminsky has 0averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute in 221 minutes this season and he is still inexpensive enough that he is a viable value option. The risk is that it is very easy to disappoint in 20 to 22 minutes but the upside is that Kaminsky will project as one of the best values on the slate if he gets fourth quarter playing time. While it is more likely that Cameron Johnson closes in his place, it is in his range of outcomes that he could play more than 22 minutes.
Paul’s salary is slowing decreasing with Devin Booker back in the lineup. If he plays tonight, he is a decent mid-range option as he has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute and 31.9 minutes per game in 18 games played with Booker this season.
The more interesting spot in Phoenix’s backcourt is Booker if Paul doesn’t play. Booker’s DFS production has taken a hit this season as Paul has cut into his production. Booker has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.9 percent usage rate and 15.8 percent assist rate in 430 minutes alongside Paul this season. In 200 minutes without Paul on the floor, Booker has a 31.6 percent usage rate and 24.8 percent assist rate. He has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute in those minutes. Booker’s price point makes him a secondary option if Paul plays and a very strong option if he sits.
Ayton will have his hands full with Andre Drummond, but he is inexpensive enough that he is a secondary center option. Ayton has averaged 33.7 minutes per game over the last month and 1.07 DraftKings points per minute.
Langston Galloway would be the most likely beneficiary if Paul sits, based on Phoenix’s recent rotations. I don’t have a ton of confidence in him, however, because Jevon Carter could also re-enter the rotation in place of Paul, which would allow Galloway to remain Booker’s back-up.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Devin Booker ($7,400 better if Paul is out)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Devin Booker ($7,400)
Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets (+4): 232
Milwaukee Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged 1.61 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.0 percent usage rate, 18.4 percent rebounding rate and 26.8 percent assist rate this season. He has averaged 33.7 minutes per game over the last month (14 games) and this is likely to be a competitive game. The matchup itself is mediocre as Denver has played at the second slowest pace over the last month and ranks 14th in defensive rating. They have also allowed the ninth-fewest points in the paint per game.
I think that it is going to be difficult to prioritize anything from Milwaukee on this slate, but Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday have tournament upside as mid-range plays as well. Middleton has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute this season while Holiday has averaged 1.10 DraftKings points per minute. Holiday is second to Giannis with 33.6 minutes per game over the last month while Middleton is third with 32.7 minutes per game.
Denver Nuggets
Jamal Murray missed Saturday’s game and is questionable tonight. Monte Morris started in his place and played 34.7 minutes.
Nikola Jokic is always one of the highest projected players, but it can be difficult to get him into lineups since he’s a center so there is a higher opportunity cost than at any other position. He has averaged 1.61 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.6 percent usage rate, 18.8 rebounding rate and 38.5 percent assist rate this season. He also leads the team with 36.1 minutes per game over the last month. He could also benefit if Murray is out because Morris is a lower usage player than Murray. Jokic has averaged 1.70 DraftKings points per minute with a 36.0 percent usage rate, 16.9 percent rebounding rate and 48.0 percent assist rate in 206 minutes without Murray on the floor this season.
Michael Porter Jr. moved into the starting lineup against the Kings on Saturday and played 33.7 minutes. He is a high-upside tournament option if he remains in the starting lineup tonight. Porter was disappointing on Saturday, but he has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season and he is priced for his role off the bench.
Will Barton and JaMychal Green are both low-floor value options that offer a relatively high ceiling for their salaries in tournaments. Barton played about 37 minutes on Saturday and would likely benefit if Murray is out again. He has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute this season. Green returned to the bench after starting two games ago against the Lakers, but he still played about 26 minutes and closed over Paul Millsap. We could see Green return to the starting lineup to try and defend Antetokounmpo, in which case he would project better since we could expect more minutes. He has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season, so any additional playing time he finds is valuable.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($11,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($11,600), Michael Porter ($5,200 if starting), Monte Morris ($4,200 if Murray is out)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers (-10.5): 218.5
Oklahoma City Thunder
The situation in Oklahoma City remains messy as they will be extremely short-handed in a tough matchup against the Lakers. George Hill, Theo Maledon, Isaiah Roby, Trevor Ariza, Moses Brown, Josh Hall, Ty Jerome, Mike Muscala and Aleksej Pokusevski are all out, which leaves Oklahoma City with eight players. Keep in mind this also puts this game at risk of postponement if anyone on Oklahoma City gets stuck in COVID protocols between now and tip because a team has to have eight active players in order to play.
My guess at tonight’s starting lineup is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Hamidou Diallo, Luguentz Dort, Darius Bazley and Al Horford. It’s possible that Kenrich Williams or Justin Jackson will start in place of Diallo, but he was Maledon’s back-up last game.
Gilgeous-Alexander played 34.4 minutes last game with nine active players and we could see even more playing time tonight since the Thunder will have one fewer player. Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute this season and he will need to have a big game if Oklahoma City is going to somehow keep this game close.
Diallo has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and 0.99 DraftKings points per minute alongside Gilgeous-Alexander. He played 37.1 minutes two games ago as starter with eight players active and 31.3 minutes last game off the bench with nine players active. It is likely that we get at least 33 or 34 minutes from Diallo tonight.
Horford has no true back-up tonight, though I’m not sure that will translate into more playing time since the Thunder have no reason to risk his health. Horford played the fewest minutes of the starters on Friday when Oklahoma City had eight players available as he finished with 29 minutes despite playing very well. Given the relative lack of playing time, tough matchup and position, I don’t see Horford as a priority on this slate. He does have a high ceiling, however, as he has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 20.7 percent usage rate, 13.8 percent rebounding rate and 17.3 percent assist rate. Anthony Davis’s absence from the Lakers’ frontcourt could make life a bit easier as well.
Bazley could see a ton of minutes tonight as the presumed starting power forward and back-up center. Bazley has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute overall this season. He has only played 21 minutes without any of Horford, Muscala, Roby or Pokusevski on the floor, but he has a 13.9 percent rebounding rate compared to his season average of 12.8 percent.
Williams and Dort are likely to play more than 30 minutes as well, but they aren’t particularly inexpensive. Williams has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute this season while Dort has averaged 0.73 DraftKings points per minute.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,000), Hamidou Diallo ($6,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,400), Hamidou Diallo ($6,200)
Los Angeles Lakers
Davis is out and Alex Caruso is questionable. Kyle Kuzma started in place of Davis and played 29.9 minutes the last time that Davis was out. The Lakers lost by 15 points to the Pistons in that game, so there is certainly no guarantee that they use the same lineup tonight. My guess until I hear otherwise, however, is that Kuzma will draw the start again.
LeBron James has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.5 percent usage rate, 13.3 percent rebounding rate and 36.8 percent assist rate in three games without Davis this season. Since the start of last season, James has averaged 1.61 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.5 percent usage rate, 12.3 percent rebounding rate and 48.3 percent assist rate. There is obviously a discrepancy between James’ production without Davis last season and his production without him this season, but I still lean toward last season’s numbers since we have a bigger sample and it makes sense for James to play better without Davis.
Dennis Schroder has played 25, 34 and 29 minutes in his three games alongside James without Davis this season. He has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.5 percent usage rate and 21.3 percent assist rate over those games. While it makes sense to expect increased production from Schroder without Davis active, his production and rates so far are just about the same as when Davis is active.
Montrezl Harrell has played 20, 29 and 23 minutes without Davis this season, averaging 1.01 DraftKings points per minute. Like Schroder I expect Harrell to benefit from Davis’s absence but it hasn’t been the case so far as he is averaging the same per-minute production and 0.8 minutes per game fewer in games without Davis. Marc Gasol closed against the Pistons in the last game that Davis missed and has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute in three games with Davis out and LeBron active compared to 0.71 DraftKings points per minute in games where they are both active. Gasol has averaged 21.4 minutes per game in the games without Davis and 19.1 minutes per game in the games with Davis active. Before we get too excited about Gasol, however, it is important to note that he scored 40.8 DraftKings points in 21 minutes against the Timberwolves without Davis. In his other two games without Davis, he has produced 19 DraftKings points in 19 minutes against the Bulls and 16.8 DraftKings points in 25 minutes against the Pistons.
Talen Horton-Tucker is an interesting value option as he has been ahead of Wesley Matthews and Markieff Morris in the rotation for several games and now there are more minutes available with Davis out and Caruso possibly out as well. Horton-Tucker has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season and 21.4 minutes per game in four games since jumping ahead of Matthews and Morris in the rotation on January 30th.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($10,500), Dennis Schroder ($5,700), Montrezl Harrell ($5,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($10,800), Montrezl Harrell ($5,200), Dennis Schroder ($5,400), Kyle Kuzma ($4,900)
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