This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
Note: This article takes a very long time to write, especially on slates with a lot of games. In order to get information out earlier in the day, I will post the first few games and then update with the remaining games as I write them on bigger slates. Be sure to check back for updates throughout the afternoon.
[DAYTONA]
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Feb. 12
Minnesota Timberwolves at Charlotte Hornets (-3.5): 227.5
Minnesota Timberwolves
D’Angelo Russell and Jarrett Culver remain out for Minnesota tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns returned to the lineup with a double-double in 30.9 minutes against the Clippers on Wednesday. While I don’t know if he will play more minutes tonight, I do think it is a great sign as I was expecting him to be more limited than that in his return given the reports of reduced lung function and conditioning issues. Towns has averaged 1.45 DraftKings points per minute in his limited time on the floor this season. Since the start of last season, Towns has played 522 minutes without either of Russell or Andrew Wiggins on the floor. He has a 30.0 percent usage rate, 22.8 percent assist rate and 17.1 percent rebounding rate with 1.60 DraftKings points per minute. I don’t expect Charlotte’s frontcourt to be able to do much to slow him down, so it really just comes down to how many minutes he is able to play and the opportunity cost at the center position.
The rest of the Timberwolves are less appealing than Towns, though there are obviously beneficiaries from Russell’s absence. Ricky Rubio has averaged 25.9 minutes per game in five starts without Russell this season. He played 29.4 minutes last game and I expect to get 28 to 30 minutes from Rubio assuming nothing weird happens in this game. His salary has increased on DraftKings, but he is still a decent value on FanDuel. Anthony Edwards has seen a usage bump without Russell on the floor this season, but I think that will be offset by the return of Towns. Edwards has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute and 30.8 minutes per game in his eight starts this season. Malik Beasley has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.9 percent usage rate in his five games without Russell this season. Most of those games were obviously without Towns, however. Since joining Minnesota last season, Beasley has played 82 minutes alongside Towns without Russell on the floor. He has been very productive with 1.31 DraftKings points per minute and a 28.5 percent usage rate. I certainly don’t expect that type of per-minute production to continue over a larger sample, but it is at least good to see that his usage hasn’t suffered alongside Towns.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Ricky Rubio ($5,400)
Charlotte Hornets
Update: Caleb Martin and Cody Martin are both out. This doesn’t have an obvious DFS impact, but we will probably see a few more minutes for some combination of Malik Monk, Miles Bridges and Hayward.
Devonte’ Graham is questionable. LaMelo Ball has been starting in his absence. James Borrego said that he hasn’t decided if Graham will return to the starting lineup once he is healthy, so my guess is that Ball ends up starting either way. Even if Graham comes off the bench, however, it would make Ball’s minutes riskier since the Hornets would have another guard in the rotation.
The Hornets get a favorable matchup tonight against Minnesota, who ranks fifth in pace and 15th in defensive rating over the last month. While their prices have increased recently, there is still a lot of upside to target from the Hornets.
Ball has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute and 33.3 minutes per game in six starts this season. If Graham is active, he becomes riskier, but he has been excellent this season and the Hornets should be looking to play him as many minutes as they can. He is especially well-priced on FanDuel.
Gordon Hayward leads the team with 35.9 minutes per game over the last month. He is second on the team with 1.08 DraftKings points per minute this season and is a good source of scoring and assists. He also allows us to fill out the small forward position with a player that has 50-point upside for a mid-range salary. Terry Rozier has started three games without Graham and has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute in 30.2 minutes per game. If this game is competitive and Graham is out, I think it is likely that Rozier plays 34-plus minutes.
The Hornets’ frontcourt is also appealing tonight as P.J. Washington is likely to play 30 to 32 minutes and has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute this season. One negative for Washington is that we have seen Bismack Biyombo get second half minutes in two straight games and Washington needs as many backup center minutes as possible. Biyombo’s presence makes Washington a riskier option, but there is no guarantee that the Hornets use Biyombo tonight against Naz Reid.
Cody Zeller has averaged 27 minutes per game in 10 starts this season with 1.04 DraftKings points per minute. If this game is competitive, I think it is likely that Zeller plays 30-plus minutes against Towns. While Towns makes the Timberwolves’ frontcourt more formidable than Naz Reid, it’s still not a bad spot for Zeller. Like Washington, Zeller’s floor does become a bit lower with Biyombo’s return to the rotation as he adds another risk factor since he could potentially steal a few minutes.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Gordon Hayward ($7,300), Cody Zeller ($5,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LaMelo Ball ($7,700), Cody Zeller ($5,200)
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New York Knicks at Washington Wizards (+3.5): 218
New York Knicks
The Knicks get a huge pace-up spot tonight against the Wizards, who are second in pace and second to last in defensive rating over the last month. Unfortunately, the Knicks’ rotation has gotten crowded, which makes them riskier options in DFS.
Julius Randle has been the one player who has continued to see huge minutes despite the Knicks’ return to full strength. He has averaged 36.7 minutes per game over the last month, which leads the team by more than 4 minutes. He has continued to produce at a high rate over that time as well, with 1.24 DraftKings points per minute. He has a 27.4 percent usage rate, 22.6 percent assist rate and 15.5 percent rebounding rate over the last month so he is still offering production in every category as well.
After Randle, it is difficult to trust anyone’s playing time — though they still offer upside because of the matchup. Mitchell Robinson played 28.9 minutes against the Heat on Tuesday and has averaged 28.5 minutes per game over the last month. Robinson’s per-minute production is down from last season with only 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season. It is a favorable matchup, however, as Washington has allowed the fifth most total rebounds per game over the last month.
R.J. Barrett is second on the team with 32.5 minutes per game over the last month, but he played just 26.7 minutes against the Heat in Derrick Rose‘s first game with the team. We saw Rose and Immanuel Quickley play 20 and 21 minutes while Alec Burks played 26 minutes. Reggie Bullock also played 23 minutes. If the plan is for all four of those players to play meaningful minutes, it is going to hurt Barrett’s playing time. He would be a decent mid-range option if he gets 32 to 33 minutes tonight, but I can’t be too confident that he will, based on New York’s rotation in Rose’s first game with the team.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($9,100)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Julius Randle ($8,600)
Washington Wizards
Bradley Beal is out tonight for rest. Beal hasn’t missed a game yet this season, so I don’t know who will start in his place. Realistically, it could be any one of Ish Smith, Raul Neto, Deni Avdija, Garrison Mathews, Jerome Robinson, Troy Brown or Isaac Bonga so we’ll have to wait and see. I don’t think it matters too much, as most of them don’t look like great values even if they start.
Russell Westbrook is the primary target from Washington. He would be a top option at his salary if Beal were in and he is obviously a better option without Beal. Westbrook has played 151 minutes without Beal on the floor this season and has averaged 1.56 DraftKings points per minute with a 37 percent usage rate, 51.2 percent assist rate and 13.9 percent rebounding rate. The matchup against the Knicks is less than desirable as they are one of the most efficient defenses in the league and play at the slowest pace by a wide margin. Still, salary is the most important thing here and Westbrook is clearly underpriced.
Davis Bertans and Rui Hachimura will need to take on bigger scoring roles alongside Westbrook with Beal out. We don’t have too much data with Westbrook on the floor and Beal off since Beal has played every game this season but, based on last year’s data, I expect Bertans and Hachimura to each see a 2- to 3-percentage-point increase in their usage rates without Beal. The poor matchup makes them secondary options, but I do think they are viable in tournaments as they are likely to go overlooked on this slate.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($9,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($8,700)
New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks (-3): 232
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans are fully healthy, which makes most of them appropriately priced despite a good matchup against the Mavericks.
Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson are the highest-upside players on the team with Ingram averaging 1.17 DraftKings points per minute and Williamson averaging 1.21 DraftKings points per minute this season. They are first and second in usage with nearly identical usage rates and also in minutes played with Ingram averaging 35.0 minutes per game and Williamson averaging 32.8 minutes per game over the last month. Nobody else on the team has averaged more than 29 minutes per game over that span.
Lonzo Ball, Eric Bledsoe and Steven Adams are all viable options as a “last guy in” type of play in tournaments because there should be a lot of fantasy points available in this game, but none of them stand out as top options at their positions. All three players have averaged between 28 and 29 minutes per game over the last month. Bledsoe has averaged 0.86 DraftKings points per minute this season, Adams has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute and Ball has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute. Dallas has allowed the sixth-most total rebounds and the ninth most offensive rebounds per game over the last month which should benefit Adams.
Willy Hernangomez is inexpensive and has a wide range of outcomes, which makes him an intriguing target in tournaments. Since replacing Jaxson Hayes as the backup to Adams, Hernangomez has played 19, 18, 19, 25 and 14 minutes. He has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($8,200), Zion Williamson ($8,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zion Williamson ($8,000), Steven Adams ($5,200)
Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic has played 15 games with Kristaps Porzingis this season. He has averaged 1.64 DraftKings points per minute and 36.2 minutes per game in those games with a 34.6 percent usage rate and 47 percent assist rate. Despite having quality backcourt defenders in Ball and Bledsoe, the Pelicans have been one of the least efficient teams in the league over the last month. Doncic is in line for another big game tonight against New Orleans.
Outside of Doncic, nothing stands out as a priority in the context of the full slate. Porzingis has upside in tournaments as he is second on the team in usage rate and leads the team in rebounding rate this season. He is likely to play 31 to 33 minutes if this game is competitive.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($10,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($11,200)
San Antonio Spurs at Atlanta Hawks (-2): 225.5
San Antonio Spurs
LaMarcus Aldridge is out again tonight. Derrick White will be back after sitting out the Spurs’ last game to rest. I expect him to re-join the starting lineup, but we could also see Lonnie Walker draw the start.
DeMar DeRozan has been very good without Aldridge this season. He has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute and 34.4 minutes per game in seven games without Aldridge this season. He has a 24.6 percent usage rate but has also contributed a 32.5 percent assist rate which increases his floor and ceiling. There is some risk that the return of White, combined with Dejounte Murray, could cause DeRozan’s assist numbers to fall a little bit but he should still be the most involved player offensively.
Murray and White offer some lower mid-range value at the guard position (assuming White starts). Murray, White and DeRozan have been on the floor for 171 minutes without Aldridge since last season. Murray has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute while White has averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute. I expect about 32 minutes from Murray and 26 to 28 minutes from White tonight against Atlanta.
Jakob Poeltl has averaged 25.9 minutes per game in his starts this season and I think we could see him exceed that number in a matchup with Clint Capela. Capela is typically playing about 30 minutes and my guess is that San Antonio will want Poeltl on the floor for as many of those minutes as possible. He still gets lost in the shuffle at a deep center position, but he is a secondary option in tournaments.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: DeMar DeRozan ($8,000), Dejounte Murray ($6,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: DeMar DeRozan ($7,800), Derrick White ($4,700)
Atlanta Hawks
De’Andre Hunter is out again tonight for Atlanta, as is Rajon Rondo.
The Spurs have been a good team defensively this season, but they also have played at a top 10 pace over the last month, so this looks like a decent spot to target Atlanta. Like several other teams, the most difficult part of rostering players from the Hawks is that the team is close to fully healthy and the players who benefit from Hunter’s absence have mostly been priced up by now.
Trae Young played about 42 minutes last game and, while we can’t expect that many minutes again, we could see a couple minutes more than normal with Rondo out again. Young leads the team with a 32.8 percent usage rate and 42.3 percent assist rate this season and has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute. He is difficult to prioritize because there are several exceptional options at point guard tonight, but there is no doubt that he has GPP-winning upside.
Capela and John Collins are both high-upside plays that have lower floors than I would like at their salaries. Capela is an excellent per-minute producer with 1.30 DraftKings points per minute this season, but there is nothing from Atlanta’s recent games that makes me confident he plays more than 30 minutes tonight. Collins has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute and is likely to play at least 33 or 34 minutes tonight, but he benefits from playing center and he loses some of those minutes with Okongwu healthy. He still got a nice chunk of minutes at center last game because Capela was in foul trouble but, if Capela plays his normal 30 minutes, I don’t expect more than 8 to 10 center minutes from Collins.
Danilo Gallinari played 30.1 minutes against the Mavericks last game, which was easily the most minutes he has played this season. He played about 12 minutes in the first half and then benefitted from Capela’s foul trouble and played more minutes in the second half. It is worth noting, however, that the Hawks announced before the game that Gallinari would be “limited” to 30 minutes. I think there is a good chance going forward that Gallinari averages close to 30 minutes and those minutes will come at the expense of any of Capela, Collins, Huerter or Reddish depending on how each game is going. He’s only averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute so far this season, but he averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute with Oklahoma City last season and I think we could see his per-minute production increase as the season goes on. He looks a little underpriced if he is going to continue getting around 30 minutes.
Kevin Huerter has played huge minutes with Hunter sidelined. In six games without Hunter this season, Huerter has averaged 37.1 minutes per game and 0.91 DraftKings points per minute. Gallinari’s return to health makes Huerter’s playing time a little bit riskier, but I still expect 34 to 36 minutes from Huerter. He also served as the backup point guard in the second half last game and that would increase his value if it happens again tonight. He is more appealing on FanDuel than DraftKings.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($10,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($10,100), Danilo Gallinari ($4,100), Kevin Huerter ($5,300)
Los Angeles Clippers at Chicago Bulls (+7): 227.5
Los Angeles Clippers
Paul George remains out for the Clippers tonight. Patrick Beverley returned to the lineup last game and played 18.2 minutes with Luke Kennard returning to the bench.
Kawhi Leonard is the obvious priority here as he gets a good matchup against the Bulls without George. He was inexplicably about 5 percent owned on DraftKings last slate despite a great matchup with Minnesota and, with this being an 11-game slate, I doubt his ownership gets too high tonight either. Leonard hadn’t seen much of an increase in production in his first three games without George this season, but we have 20 games from last season that tell us we should expect his production to pick up sooner than later. We saw it last game and I think we should expect it to be the case more often than not going forward as well. Leonard has averaged 1.61 DraftKings points per minute with a 35.9 percent usage rate, 29.9 percent assist rate and 12.0 percent rebounding rate in 24 games played (822 minutes) without George since the start of last season. He has also averaged 34.2 minutes per game in those games and 36.4 minutes per game in his four games without him this season.
Other than Leonard, there isn’t much here that I feel confident in. Reggie Jackson remained in the starting lineup and played about 27 minutes despite Beverley’s return, but he isn’t particularly cheap so he’s difficult to trust. Nicolas Batum was the only player other than Leonard to top 30 minutes as he played about 35 minutes. He’s averaged 0.91 DraftKings points per minute and 34.5 minutes per game in his four games alongside Leonard without George this season, so he offers secondary value at his salary.
Marcus Morris closed over Serge Ibaka and Ivica Zubac last game and I think there is a good chance it happens again against the Bulls’ small frontcourt tonight. If Ibaka or Zubac were to somehow play 28 minutes they would probably end up being a good play tonight, but I think the most likely outcome is that nobody from this trio plays more than 24 or 25 minutes.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($10,000)
Chicago Bulls
Lauri Markkanen and Otto Porter remain out, and Wendell Carter is doubtful.
Denzel Valentine has averaged 29.0 minutes per game and 0.92 DraftKings points per minute in three starts with Markkanen out while Daniel Gafford has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute in 15.4 minutes per game in 10 starts without Carter. Valentine is more favorably priced on FanDuel than DraftKings if you are looking to roster him, while I can’t see going to Gafford outside of, maybe, the largest field tournaments since the Bulls have made it clear they don’t intend to play him heavy minutes.
Zach LaVine has been fantastic all season long, but especially when the Bulls are short-handed. He has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.3 percent usage rate and 24.3 percent assist rate overall this season. In 196 minutes without Markkanen, Porter or Carter on the floor, he has averaged 1.56 DraftKings points per minute with a 36.6 percent usage rate and 25 percent assist rate. While his 67.1 percent true shooting rate over that span suggests that we can’t expect that level of per-minute production to continue, I do still expect him to see increased usage with that trio sidelined. The matchup against the Clippers isn’t the best and his price point is awkward compared to some other guard options tonight, but I think LaVine has a massive ceiling and may go overlooked.
Coby White also has seen an uptick in usage without Markkanen, Porter or Carter on the floor. He has a 22.9 percent usage rate in 226 minutes without them compared to 20.8 percent overall this season. He is second on the team with 32.3 minutes per game over the last month and it’s possible we see him get even more shot attempts if the Clippers choose to use Leonard to try and take LaVine away.
The rest of the Bulls are priced up on DraftKings, but they offer secondary value on FanDuel where they are much less expensive. Patrick Williams has played at least 32 minutes in five straight games while Garrett Temple has the potential to play 30-plus minutes and Thaddeus Young will most likely play about 28 minutes, mostly at center.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($9,200), Coby White ($6,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Coby White ($5,600), Patrick Williams ($4,400)
Detroit Pistons at Boston Celtics (-7.5): 211
Detroit Pistons
Update: Mason Plumlee is officially out. Sekou Doumbouya is also out, along with Jahlil Okafor, Frank Jackson and Killian Hayes. Josh Jackson is probable and Blake Griffin isn’t on the injury report. This wouldn’t be the first time the Pistons rule out Griffin late in the day after not listing him on the injury report, so keep an eye out for more news on his status.
We don’t have an injury report yet since the Pistons played last night. Plumlee was ruled out about 30 minutes before lock, so I’m considering him questionable at best tonight. Isaiah Stewart started in his place and played 31.2 minutes. He is a clear top value again tonight if Plumlee is out. I haven’t seen official confirmation yet, but I’m not expecting Griffin to play on the second half of a back-to-back tonight either. Saddiq Bey would most likely start if that is the case. Doumbouya would most likely get increased playing time as well if both are out as he played 15.6 minutes behind Stewart last night and would probably pick up some of Griffin’s minutes as well.
Jerami Grant and Delon Wright should both be in line for a lot of playing time as Grant has averaged 35.9 minutes per game over the last month and Wright has averaged 34.6 minutes per game in nine starts without Rose this season. Dennis Smith Jr. made his Pistons’ debut last night but only played about 16 minutes, including garbage time, as Wright’s backup. Grant has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute in 302 minutes without either of Griffin or Rose on the floor this season while Wright has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute. Despite the upside at mid-range salaries, neither one looks like a priority on this massive slate given the tough matchup against the Celtics.
Stewart has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute this season and Bey has averaged 0.70 DraftKings points per minute and 26 minutes per game in six starts in place of Griffin this season. Both look like top point-per-dollar options if Plumlee and Griffin are out.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Isaiah Stewart ($3,100), Saddiq Bey ($3,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Isaiah Stewart ($3,600)
Boston Celtics
Robert Williams and Kemba Walker are out tonight on the second half of a back-to-back. Marcus Smart is also out.
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown should see increased usage with Walker’s 28 percent usage rate taken off the floor. Tatum has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.5 percent usage rate and 21,5 percent assist rate in 12 games with Walker out and Brown active this season. Brown has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.8 percent usage rate and 16.9 percent assist rate in those games.
I’m not sure who will start in Walker’s place as Brad Stevens is extremely creative with his starting lineups. Jeff Teague has typically started in place of Walker in the past, but he hasn’t been in the rotation recently. The last time that Teague and Payton Pritchard were both available in a game without Walker was Jan. 15 and a lot has changed since then. We could see Teague start, we could see Pritchard start or we could see Carsen Edwards start. We could also get Tristan Thompson back in the starting lineup or we could see someone else start because, you know, Brad Stevens. My guess is that Pritchard is the most useful fantasy option of the possible guard replacements. He played 29.1 minutes last night and has clearly taken Teague’s spot in the rotation after returning from his injury. Pritchard has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute and 22.9 minutes per game in 10 games without Walker and with Tatum and Brown this season, but he is likely to get more minutes tonight with Smart also out.
Daniel Theis started at center last night with Thompson moving to the bench. Theis has averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute with a 13 percent rebounding rate in 240 minutes alongside Brown (to try and remove bench minutes) without Thompson on the floor this season compared to 0.80 DraftKings points per minute with a 9.1 percent rebounding rate in 198 minutes alongside both of Brown and Thompson. If Thompson remains on the bench, Theis sees a nice bump and would make for a strong value as a power forward option.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($8,800), Jaylen Brown ($7,800), Daniel Theis ($4,800 if Thompson doesn’t start), Payton Pritchard ($3,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum ($9,400), Jaylen Brown ($8,400), Daniel Theis ($4,900), Payton Pritchard ($3,900)
Milwaukee Bucks at Utah Jazz (-2.5): 234
Milwaukee Bucks
Jrue Holiday is out again tonight.
The Bucks have a difficult matchup tonight against a Utah team that has played at one of the slowest paces and been one of the most efficient defenses this season. While the matchup is unappealing, the good news is that this game has a relatively low chance of being a blowout, which is normally an issue for Milwaukee.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton stand out as the top options from Milwaukee. Antetokounmpo has averaged 1.61 DraftKings points per minute overall this season and 1.68 DraftKings points per minute without Holiday on the floor. He played 37.9 minutes in a 1-point loss to the Suns on Wednesday and he has averaged 34.6 minutes per game over the last month (14 games played). Middleton gets a bump in production without Holiday as well. He has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.3 percent assist rate overall this season but 1.45 DraftKings points per minute with a 35.2 percent assist rate in 193 minutes without Holiday on the floor this season. The Bucks will stagger Giannis and Middleton, so about 10 to 12 of Middleton’s 35 to 37 minutes should be without Antetokounmpo on the floor. Middleton has averaged 1.59 DraftKings points per minute in 555 minutes without any of Giannis, Holiday or Eric Bledsoe on the floor since last season. I said the same things about Middleton on Wednesday and his final stat line was relatively disappointing (44.25 DraftKings points), but he led the team with 16 potential assists (Giannis was second with 11 and then third was Donte DiVincenzo with 4) and he took 17 field-goal attempts. The opportunities were certainly there, he just shot poorly.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800), Khris Middleton ($8,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000), Khris Middleton ($8,000)
Utah Jazz
Mike Conley is still out for Utah.
Donovan Mitchell has been excellent in his two games without Conley, averaging 1.60 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.6 percent usage rate and 50.8 percent assist rate. I don’t expect that level of production to continue, but it doesn’t need to since his salary hasn’t increased much as a result of those games. Mitchell has played 410 minutes without Conley on the floor this season and has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.3 percent usage rate and 30.7 percent assist rate. By comparison, he has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.3 percent usage rate and 18.7 percent assist rate in 360 minutes alongside Conley.
Rudy Gobert has only averaged about 30 minutes per game in games that Derrick Favors has been active this season, but he played about 36 minutes against Boston last game. I think we could see big minutes from Gobert again tonight in an effort to protect the rim against Giannis. Gobert has been an excellent per-minute producer with 1.26 DraftKings points per minute this season and he looks like a great tournament option since he is priced to play 30 minutes and could easily exceed that in this matchup.
Jordan Clarkson has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute this season and 28.8 minutes per game in the two games without Conley. He is extremely inexpensive on FanDuel and reasonably priced on DraftKings as well.
Joe Ingles has averaged 33.8 minutes per game and 0.9 DraftKings points per minute in his two games without Conley. He isn’t a high-usage option, but he contributes enough peripherals to fill out the stat sheet. Like Clarkson, he is much more favorably priced on FanDuel than DraftKings.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($8,200), Rudy Gobert ($7,500), Jordan Clarkson ($5,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Donovan Mitchell ($8,300), Jordan Clarkson ($4,700), Joe Ingles ($4,900)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets (-12): 221.5
Oklahoma City Thunder
I wish this team would just stop playing until they’re healthy again. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, George Hill, Theo Maledon, Aleksej Pokusevski, Trevor Ariza, Moses Brown, Josh Hall and Ty Jerome are out tonight. Isaiah Roby is listed as questionable after not being on the injury report at all and then missing Oklahoma City’s last game. The Thunder will have eight or nine players tonight, depending on Roby’s status.
Prices are reaching the point where there is clearly still upside on these players given how many minutes they’ll need to play, but they aren’t the top values that they were a week or so ago. Hamidou Diallo has averaged 35.8 minutes per game and 1.04 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.4 percent usage rate and 22.2 percent assist rate in his three starts without Gilgeous-Alexander or Hill. Al Horford has been excellent in his three games without Gilgeous-Alexander, averaging 1.57 DraftKings points per minute with a 29 percent usage rate and 39.3 percent assist rate. Horford led the Thunder in potential assists in both games that he played without Gilgeous-Alexander or Maledon, picking up 14 potential assists on February 5th and 10 on Wednesday. The only knock on Horford is that we can’t expect him to play more than 29 or 30 minutes.
Nothing else from Oklahoma City stands out at their price points, though Roby would look like a strong value at $4,000 on DraftKings if he is announced as a starter.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Hamidou Diallo ($7,000), Al Horford ($6,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Hamidou Diallo ($7,000), Al Horford ($6,200)
Denver Nuggets
P.J. Dozier and Gary Harris remain out for Denver, so we should get another start from Michael Porter Jr.
Nikola Jokic is always one of the highest projected players on a slate as he has averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute this season and 36.4 minutes per game over the last month. The problem with Jokic is that no matter how well he personally projects, he is at the position with the most opportunity cost. Tonight’s slate has a lot of strong center options, including one of the best value plays on the slate in Isaiah Stewart. This will make it very difficult to prioritize Jokic, but also means that if you are able to get him into your tournament lineups he should be relatively low owned.
Jamal Murray, Will Barton and Porter don’t project nearly as well as Jokic, but they’ll be easier to get into lineups at their prices if you are trying to get exposure to a Denver team with a 118-point implied total. Murray’s production is down this season thanks to Jokic’s increased playing time, but he has still averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute with a 24 percent usage rate and he has averaged 34.4 minutes per game over the last month. Barton has averaged 34.7 minutes per game and 0.79 DraftKings points per minute in six starts without Harris while Porter has averaged 29.4 minutes per game and 1 DraftKings point per minute in three starts without Harris. Porter has averaged 29.3 minutes per game and 1.15 DraftKings points per minute in seven starts overall this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($10,700)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($10,800), Michael Porter, Jr. ($5,500)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5): 221.5
Cleveland Cavaliers
Larry Nance Jr. and Kevin Love are still out for Cleveland.
Andre Drummond and Jarrett Allen started alongside each other for the second straight game last time out. Drummond ended up only played 16.2 minutes while Allen played 25.8 minutes. Neither player stepped on the floor in the fourth quarter of a blowout loss to Denver and we can obviously ignore the minutes totals from this game. The two primary takeaways are that they started alongside each other again and that JaVale McGee was once again the back-up center so most of Drummond and Allen’s minutes were alongside one another. If this continues to be the case, it hurts both of their per-minute rates, but it is worse for Allen than for Drummond.
Drummond has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.1 percent usage rate and 24.5 percent rebounding rate in 74 minutes alongside Allen while Allen has averaged only 0.75 DraftKings points per minute with a 14.4 percent usage rate and 10.9 percent rebounding rate alongside Drummond. Drummond remains underpriced, even with reduced per-minute production, since he has a path to 34-plus minutes again. Allen has a higher ceiling than before simply based on playing time, but his rebounding numbers alongside Drummond are a legitimate concern.
Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are likely to play at least 36 and 34 minutes, respectively, as long as this game is competitive. They aren’t top options at the guard position, but they do offer tournament upside in a good matchup against the Blazers. Sexton has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season and Garland has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute. It’s too early to read into the numbers, but I am concerned about Sexton’s production alongside both of Drummond and Allen since he is one of the most drive-heavy guards in the league and neither of Drummond nor Allen are able to effectively space the floor.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($8,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($8,200), Collin Sexton ($6,500)
Portland Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard and Enes Kanter remain the top options for Portland. Lillard has averaged 1.44 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.9 percent usage rate and 36.5 percent assist rate in 10 games without C.J. McCollum this season compared to 1.29 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.7 percent usage rate and 30.9 percent assist rate in 13 games played with McCollum active.
Kanter has averaged 30.4 minutes per game in place of Nurkic and the Blazers have plenty of incentive to keep him on the floor tonight against the Cavaliers’ giant frontcourt. Kanter has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in his 12 starts without Nurkic.
The rest of the Blazers are priced too high for me to be interested as prices have adjusted not only for Nurkic and McCollum to be out, but also for Derrick Jones and Lillard to be out and they are both back in the lineup.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard ($9,800), Enes Kanter ($6,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Damian Lillard ($9,500), Enes Kanter ($6,700)
Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings (-9): 222.5
Orlando Magic
Speaking of teams that I wish would stop playing until they were healthy, here are the Orlando Magic. Cole Anthony, Evan Fournier and Al-Farouq Aminu are all questionable after missing last night’s game. Frank Mason is out, along with Markelle Fultz, Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac and Karim Mane. Michael Carter-Williams is not on the injury report, but he hasn’t played since January 4th so it’s difficult to imagine he won’t be limited.
Unfortunately, this game doesn’t start until 10:00 EST. It’s unlikely that we get news on any of the questionable players before lock. For now, my approach is going to be to project them to play and then late swap as necessary. The reason that I prefer this approach is that there is plenty of value in the earlier games and, if I project all of these players out, I could end up in a really bad spot if they are all ruled in late and I have to scramble to find alternative values.
Nikola Vucevic has a great matchup against the Kings and he is a good play regardless of who is active or inactive. Vucevic has averaged 1.39 DraftKings points per minute this season and his per-minute production only goes up as players are ruled out. The only concern for Vucevic is that he played 37.9 minutes last night and 41.1 minutes on Tuesday. We could definitely get a tired version of Vucevic here on a road three-in-four after playing huge minutes in the first two games.
If everyone is active, then nobody stands out beyond Vucevic. If Fournier is out and Anthony is in, I’ll have interest in Anthony. If Anthony is out and Fournier is in, I’ll have interest in Fournier. If they are both out, it opens up more minutes for Dwayne Bacon, James Ennis and Terrence Ross, but the return of Carter-Williams muddies the water a bit.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($9,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Vucevic ($9,800)
Sacramento Kings
The Magic haven’t lived up to their strong defensive reputation recently, ranking 23rd in defensive rating over the last month. While we can see random fluctuations over 10-15 game samples, it makes sense for Orlando to struggle defensively without Gordon or Isaac available.
De’Aaron Fox will typically give us at least 35 or 36 minutes in competitive games and he has averaged a team-leading 1.22 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Harrison Barnes and Buddy Hield normally play at least 35 minutes in competitive games as well, but they don’t produce at nearly the same rate as Fox. Barnes has averaged 0.90 DraftKings points per minute this season while Hield has averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute. Either player is capable of running into a big game since they play so many minutes, but neither stands out as a top option on a slate this big.
Richaun Holmes is yet another center option in the $5,500 to $6,000 price range that has a path to success but doesn’t really stand out amongst the rest of the position. He can be expected to play 30 to 32 minutes tonight and has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season so he looks a little underpriced but there are a lot of underpriced centers tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($9,000), Richaun Holmes ($5,600)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($8,900)
Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers (-6.5): 219.5
Memphis Grizzlies
Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke and De’Anthony Melton are out so Memphis will need to replace Bane’s minutes as he had been starting in place of Clarke. My guess is that Xavier Tillman will re-join the starting lineup against the Lakers’ frontcourt but it could also be Tyus Jones, John Konchar, Grayson Allen or someone else.
Ja Morant played 30.9 minutes last game and lost a couple minutes to garbage time, so I’m comfortable expecting at least 32 minutes from him with the upside for more. He has a tough matchup and less secure minutes than a lot of other point guards on this slate, but he is also one of the most talented players in his price range which makes me interested in tournaments.
Jonas Valanciunas played 28.9 minutes last game after playing about 33 minutes the game before, so expecting him to be back to the 28 to 30 minute range that he was playing before the Grizzlies’ COVID-induced break is reasonable. Valanciunas is an excellent per-minute producer but he plays fewer minutes on average than many center options. Like Morant, this makes him an interesting option in tournaments since he is likely to drastically outperform his salary whenever he gets a few minutes more than normal.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Ja Morant ($7,100), Jonas Valanciunas ($7,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Ja Morant ($7,100), Jonas Valanciunas ($7,000)
Los Angeles Lakers
Anthony Davis is questionable after missing the Lakers’ last couple of games. LeBron James, Alex Caruso and Jared Dudley are probable.
James has averaged 1.54 DraftKings points per minute with Davis active since the start of last season compared to 1.58 DraftKings points per minute in games without Davis, so his status doesn’t seem to make a huge difference here though it is a slight bump for James. Kyle Kuzma played 34 minutes in place of Davis last game and would look like a secondary forward option if Davis is out again as he has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute in 11 games with James active and Davis inactive since the start of last season.
Davis is inexpensive and would be an interesting option in tournaments at low ownership if he is ruled in, but I would still rather look to Kawhi Leonard at the same price point. The return of Caruso will most likely take Wesley Matthews back out of the rotation but it doesn’t make Caruso a viable DFS option.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($10,100), Anthony Davis ($9,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($10,500), Anthony Davis ($9,800)
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