NBA Fantasy: DraftKings + FanDuel Projections & High-Upside Plays 2/18

In NBA DFS and daily fantasy basketball as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool.

*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.

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DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections | Feb. 18

NBA Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom Candidates

LeBron James vs. Nets: $10,500/$10,200

53.8% DraftKings Boom/51% FanDuel Boom

As long as Anthony Davis remains out and LeBron’s price doesn’t move much, he is a primary target for me. The aging curve for James appears nonexistent, as he continues to play as well as ever. With Davis out, James is playing nearly 40 minutes per night over the last six games, and he has a usage rate north of 30% over this stretch. He is marching towards yet another MVP award, and this is leading to increased fantasy production. Playing against the Nets’ defense is never a bad thing either. They rank last in defensive efficiency since trading for James Harden.

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Nemanja Bjelica vs. Heat: $4,600/$3,800

33.1% DraftKings Boom/23.4% FanDuel Boom

Bjelica is one of my favorite value plays on the slate. He’s in line for extra minutes since the Kings are missing both Richaun Holmes and Harrison Barnes for tonight’s game. Despite a strong projection, early indications are that Bjelica won’t have a ton of ownership tonight. The Boom vs. Bust tool projections him to have a better chance of landing in the optimal lineup than what his field ownership this. He also makes for nice leverage off of Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside is rightfully one of the higher owned players on the slate, but one of the ways he fails is if the Kings go with smaller lineups and play Bjelica extended minutes with Whiteside on the bench.

NBA Fantasy Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Bust Candidates

Montrezl Harrell vs. Nets: $6,200/$5,900

68.4% DraftKings Bust/59.7% FanDuel Bust

Harrell has upside worth getting some exposure to, but I will go underweight to the field on him. It’s difficult to entirely ignore most players on a three-game slate, although Harrell has double-digit ownership with single-digit odds of landing in the optimal lineup on both sites, per the Boom/Bust Tool. I thought Harrell would get extended minutes without Davis healthy, which is not the case so far. In the last three games, the Lakers played Harrell 16, 24 and 18 minutes, with Marc Gasol getting favored at times.

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.