The BMW Championship is set to act as the second leg of the PGA Tour playoffs. This year the field will be pared down to just 50 golfers, fewer than it had when the BMW Championship was a 70-man event. The main goal in 2023, though, will be the same for all the remaining players — finish the week inside the top 30 of the FedEx Cup Rankings at any cost. For the top players, a fast start will also be essential, as the final leg of the FedEx Cup uses a handicap format based on seeding.
For first-round leader bets, it is also important to consider the course. Olympia Fields is a long par 70 that favors solid drivers and will force players into using the driver on several holes. Longer hitters are definitely preferred, but for first-round leader purposes, it is worth noting that strong putters also popped on Thursday in 2020, with names like Matthew Fitzpatrick and Mackenzie Hughes landing in the top 5 after the first round. Weather-wise, it may actually be beneficial to go out a bit later, as some rain and cooler weather may pop up in the morning on Thursday. It will be gusty most of the first round, but the sun is set to come out around noon and the gusts should die down as the day goes on.
As always, this column will use OddsShopper’s golf betting tools to identify the best value options for the BMW Championship first-round leader selections. In a field with just 50 golfers, it is OK to look for a few shorter odds on a course where off-tee specialists should have an advantage.
BMW Championship First-Round Leader Bets
Cameron Young First Round Leader (+3300, BetMGM) and First Round Top 5 (+550, BetMGM)
Young has a lot going on. He is obviously still chasing his first win on the PGA Tour, and the setup looks ideal for a big hitter like himself. That is a good enough reason to get some exposure to him, but there are other motivating factors in play as well. Young is also in a very precarious spot in terms of the overall playoff picture, sitting just 46th in the FedEx Cup standings. He needs a big week just to get to East Lake and also needs a good week to secure his Ryder Cup position. He is ninth on the Ryder Cup point list but has not had as good of a year as several golfers behind him. Going off just before noon, Young is worth targeting in the first-round leader market, as he is well suited to the course and will understand that the task at hand will be much simpler to accomplish with a fast start.
Sahith Theegala First Round Leader (+5000, BetMGM) and First Round Top 5 (+750, BetMGM)
The top of the leaderboard was peppered with solid putters at Olympia Fields in 2020, and for first-round leader purposes, it is logical to target that skillset once again. Theegala’s long game has regressed since the start of the year, but his putter has come to life of late. Last week he was able to carve out a 13th-place finish at the FedEx St. Jude despite losing strokes on approach. That is an impressive feat in and of itself, and he should take some confidence from the finish after a long string of poor finishes to end his regular season. Theegala has also driven the ball better of late and has shown an ability to thrive on longer courses this season, posting a ninth at Augusta (in his first time playing the Masters) and a sixth at Riviera. Do not be shocked if he starts fast, and do not be afraid to get exposure to his top first-round top-5 odds on BetMGM, which sit at a juicy +750.
BMW Championship First Round Longshot Bets
Longshots often hit in the first-round market and are worth adding to betting cards. You can always use OddsShopper’s tools to check out and compare odds across the major sites.
Harris English First Round Leader (+5000, BetMGM) and First Round Top 5 (+750, BetMGM)
There are no issues with going back to English as a longshot pick. He struggled on the scoresheet in Memphis, managing just a 52nd-place finish at the FedEx St. Jude, but he had a pretty solid weekend, shooting rounds of 70 and 67 on Saturday and Sunday. He finished off his tournament without a bogey over the final 27 holes and also gained over 6.7 strokes on approach last week, a mark that led the field. While English’s putter and off-tee game need to improve, that weekend momentum could lead to a fast start on a course that has some U.S. Open vibes to it. He goes off in the final group on Monday, which may actually be beneficial given that the wind is expected to be slightly gustier in the morning.
