CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Week 9 DFS picks and projections for Tuesday, Oct. 24.
CFB Week 9 DFS Picks and Projections | Tuesday, Oct. 24
Quarterback
Kaidon Salter ($8,700): Liberty enters this game as a five-point favorite over Western Kentucky. The team ranks 113th in pace and passes just 32.3% of the time. However, quarterback Kaidon Salter participates in all facets of the game. He currently accounts for 497 cumulative rushing yards, while averaging 213.3 on 21.7 attempts per game. This game environment gives him a slight edge over the other expensive signal callers.
Austin Reed ($8,500): An air raid offense, Western Kentucky ranks 33rd in pace and throws the ball 64.3% of the time. While inefficient, the 42.1 attempts per game, result in 273.3 passing yards for Reed. Somewhat mobile, he also accounts for 89 rushing yards. Ultimately, Reed finds himself planted firmly among the top three signal callers tonight.
Diego Pavia ($9,300): New Mexico State enters Week 9 as a 2.5-point underdog to Louisiana Tech in a game with a 52 total. While this game environment trails the Liberty vs. Western Kentucky contest, Diego Pavia remains firmly in consideration. One of the premier dual threats in the country, Pavia has 525 cumulative rushing yards this year. He also averages a hyper-efficient 223.1 yards per game on 23.5 attempts.
Hank Bachmeier ($6,000): A slight favorite in this matchup, Louisiana Tech ranks 70th in pace and throws the ball 55.2% of the time. At quarterback, Hank Bachmeier took over for a struggling Jack Turner in the second half last week. Ultimately, Bachmeier has slightly superior pass game metrics, while Turner holds a rushing edge. Bachmeier should be expected to start, putting him in play for GPPs. However, don’t be surprised if Turner makes a rogue start or if both players see time in this contest.
Running Back
Quinton Cooley ($6,300): After leading the backfield in touches all season, Quinton Cooley‘s role experienced further growth over the last two weeks. In that span, Cooley received 28 and 25 touches. Western Kentucky allows 4.9 yards per carry, making Cooley the safest back on the board.
Tyre Shelton ($6,600): Louisiana Tech running back Tyre Shelton enters this game with the questionable tag. He averages 15.4 touches per game, but saw 23 in Louisiana Tech’s second most recent contest before the injury. If Shelton cannot go, expect Charvis Thornton to handle a feature back role. He saw six carries and three targets following Shelton’s departure last week.
Monte Watkins ($4,900): New Mexico State uses a running back by committee, featuring three players. However, Pavia’s involvement on the ground further reduces this volume. With that said, Monte Watkins has taken on an increased role of late. After an excellent outing in Week 7, New Mexico State fed him 11 touches in Week 8. This bested Star Thomas‘ nine touches. This situation remains volatile, but Watkins can be considered as a value option.
Markese Stepp ($4,400): By far the worst running back situation to target, Western Kentucky splits their touches between Markese Stepp, Elijah Young, Davion Ervin-Poindexter, and L.T. Sanders. They should be prioritized in that order, but none are strong plays outside of the largest tournaments.
Wide Receiver
Malachi Corley ($7,500): Malachi Corley averages 97.5 receiving yards per game on 11.7 targets. He hasn’t seen fewer than 12 targets in any of the last four games. Corley is the best play on the entire slate.
Smoke Harris ($7,000): Louisiana Tech pass catchers stand out behind the team’s 55% pass rate. Smoke Harris leads the group with 77.6 yards per game on 9.3 targets. He has seen at least 13 targets in three of the last four games. For those who can’t find the salary for Harris, Cyrus Allen can also be considered. Allen averages 64.6 yards per game on 6.9 targets. He also has double-digit targets in two of the last four games. From there, Louisiana Tech fed Kyle Maxwell a 90+% route share last week without Tru Edwards. This led to seven targets. Louisiana Tech also runs four-wide more than most, allowing Marlion Jackson to see three targets. Ultimately, Jackson will split that role with tight ends Ryan Rivera and Nate Jones (if active).
CJ Daniels ($5,900): Interestingly, Liberty narrowed their receiver rotation over the last two games. CJ Daniels and Noah Frith both exceeded 90% of the team’s routes. Daniels remains far more involved, averaging seven targets per game over the last three. With 72.7 yards per game, Daniels makes for a fine stacking option with Salter. Beyond Frith and Daniels, Treon Sibley operates as the WR3 and Bentley Hanshaw as the tight end. Elijah Smoot only played one snap last week.
Kordell Davis ($3,400): The worst receiving room to target by far, no one on the team averages even four targets per game. Jonathan Brady leads the team with 44.4 yards per game on 3.9 targets and a 63% route share. However, Kordell David‘s 70.5% route share actually tops the team. He only has 68 receiving yards this year, but paying down for a New Mexico State receiver makes more sense than jamming the expensive ones.
Jimmy Holiday ($4,000): Western Kentucky uses 4-5 receivers on a weekly basis behind Corley. However, Jimmy Holiday has emerged as the WR2 and Moussa Barry as the WR3. Beyond that, Dalvin Smith, Easton Messer, Craig Burt Jr., and K.D. Hutchinson can be used in that order.
