To deliver a long-term positive return, MLB DFS lineup study is crucial. Seeing what winning lineups looked like and how top players built their lineups compared to the average player is what elevates DFS players to the next level.
That’s why we’ve built the post-contest MLB DFS Sims at Stokastic. The post-contest Sim updates with the previous night’s results. Users are able to compare their own lineups to others and see how lineups graded out. Consistently building positive ROI lineups will lead to better profits in the long run.
Here I look to highlight the main factors of the top 3 lineups in the $300K Relay Throw ($100,000 to first) contest on DraftKings. Some points I will be looking for when breaking down these lineups are what kind of stack used, the average ownership percentage, highest-owned players and the number of lineups the user entered. We are searching for any patterns within these individual lineups in an attempt to apply certain tactics when building our next pool of MLB DFS lineups.
MLB DFS Lineup Study for April 2
User: ocdobv
Finish: 1st
Stack: 5-2-1/Cubs, Diamondbacks, Red Sox
Average Ownership: 134.8%
Number of Lineups Entered: 150
Highest-Owned Player: Ronald Acuna Jr., 50.7%
User: 3rd_and_schlong
Finish: 2nd
Stack: 5-2-1/Cubs, Diamondbacks, Braves
Average Ownership: 106.5%
Number of Lineups Entered: 150
Highest-Owned Player: Seiya Suzuki, 36%
User: aaroncosta
Finish: 3rd
Stack: 5-1-1-1/Cubs, Cardinals, Guardians, Red Sox
Average Ownership: 112.7%
Number of Lineups Entered: 150
Highest-Owned Player: Javier Assad, 52%
MLB DFS Conclusions
The Cubs bats against Kyle Freeland quickly became a must have in any winning lineup last night. The Cubs erupted for a slate-high 12 runs, with Seiya Suzuki, Cody Bellinger, Christopher Morel and Garrett Cooper all going yard. They were fairly popular heading into the slate due to their matchup against the Rockies, but I was expecting a lot more ownership. The highest-owned bats from Chicago were Morel at 17.6% and Suzuki at 16.4%, but the lowest-owned bats ended up being the difference in all Cubs stacks.
Second baseman Nick Madrigal was only 3.8% owned and ended up being the third-highest-scoring second baseman on the slate. Cooper was the highest-scoring first baseman on the slate, with 35 DraftKings points at only 5.9% ownership.
We always talk about leverage in this breakdown among players from other teams, but last night there was a leverage spot within the Cubs stack. Madrigal at $2,900 and Nico Hoerner at $5,000 are both only second base eligible, which caused a choice to be made when creating Cubs stacks. The cheaper Madrigal ended up scoring 19 DraftKings points, while Hoerner was more expensive only scored 8 DraftKings points, a sizable difference when trying to take down a large-field GPP.
I was a victim of the leverage, with my best Cubs stack scoring 189 and landing me at 50 in the 150 Mini-MAX. Meanwhile, every lineup ahead of me had Madrigal and was able to allocate the saved salary in other spots. This occurrence is more of a rare one considering only so many teams have multiple players with strictly the same position eligibility, but it will happen again and we will be forced to make the same decision again. Round 1 goes to the cheaper, lower-owned player.
