MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: SP1 George Kirby?! (April 27)

Saturday has wall-to-wall base ball, with two waves of featured slate action on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to George Kirby and Aaron Civale as key arms, with the Yankees and Giants bats being the top stacks. Still trying to find your MLB DFS edge? Luckily Stokastic has a new tool to help you get there — the MLB Sims Tool! With it you can simulate any MLB DFS contest you are playing on a given night and see what lineups are the likeliest to be profitable. And if you need a head start on strategy, we’ve broke down how to use the MLB Sims Tool to create the best DFS lineups on a nightly basis.

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 27

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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers

Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP George Kirby vs. Arizona Diamondbacks — 3.4 implied runs First Pitch: 7:05p.m. ET

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,200 | FanDuel $8,700 | Yahoo $39

The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool likes the weather in Seattle tonight, where it will be cool in the low-50s, with moderate humidity, also known as being cold and damp or springtime in the Pacific Northwest (check out our MLB weather forecast for more!). This is a bonus for pitchers, and the salary bestowed upon RHP George Kirby is palatable across the main MLB DFS sites. The Diamondbacks are an above-average offense, though they set up better against southpaws. This season Arizona has an 87 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, which indicates they are scoring runs 13% less efficiently than the league average. The team does a good job limiting strikeouts with a 19% rate, though the .120 ISO is pretty pathetic. Last year the projected lineup was excellent against right-handed hurlers, which does give a little concern that some of the batsmen could shake off the team-wide slump sooner rather than later. Kirby’s calling card is impeccable control boasting a lowly 2.4% walk rate across his last 868 batters faced, with above-average strikeout stuff. He gets just enough groundballs (45%-ish) that he stays out of trouble when the inevitable extra-base hit occurs. This is not a sexy play, but it is a solid one, and that is enough to land Kirby at the top of the pitching pile.

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Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Aaron Civale at Chicago White Sox — 3.6 implied runs First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,000 | FanDuel $11,000 | Yahoo $48

Break one off for the White Sox, who ended their seven game slide with a 9-4 victory on Friday night. Those nine runs represent nearly 14% of their total runs on the season (65), and they are still dead last in the league, trailing the Oakland Athletics by a dozen runs and the Washington Nationals by 18. Even more damning, eight teams have already scored twice as many runs as Chicago this season. This is all about the matchup as RHP Aaron Civale is an above-average pitcher on his best days. The other option on the two-pitcher sites would be moving up to RHP Dylan Cease, though he has a matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies who are in San Diego for the weekend. Tonight will be the 92nd start for Civale, who broke into the league in 2019 with Cleveland. For his career, he has a respectable 3.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. After being dealt to Tampa in the middle of last season, the Rays were able to tweak a few things with his mechanics and positioning on the mound, leading to a wicked 11.5 strikeouts per nine innings. That was a small 10-start sample size, but he has been at 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings in his five starts this year. Civale was dreadful in his last start, as the Yankees worked him over in the Bronx for five runs, eight hits, and, more concerningly, five walks. The 28-eary-old gamely hung around for 104 pitches but fell one out shy of closing out the fifth inning. Hopefully, that is just a blip on the radar and not a harbinger of doom. Early Slate Pitching Target: RHP Edward Cabrera vs. Washington Nationals — 3.6 implied runs First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET

  • DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,700 | FanDuel $8,800 | Yahoo $44

Washington just can’t buy a break with Lane Thomas joining fellow outfielder Victor Robles on the injured list. That leaves shortstop CJ Abrams as the only worrisome bat in the lineup, with minor mention to human wind machine Joey Gallo, dusty Eddie Rosario and catcher Keibert Ruiz. That trio would only be able to crack the lineup a couple of days per week for good teams, but here they are as everyday players for the Nationals. This should be the breakout season for oft-injured RHP Edward Cabrera, who was a top-three prospect for the Marlins and sliding inside the top 100 for most industry lists. He has a great fastball and a good slider, which should help him strike out over a batter per inning, though he lacks a third pitch to truly put him in the elite double-digit strikeouts per nine range. The Nats have very little power in the lineup, with the projected nine posting a .119 ISO against right-handed pitching since the beginning of last season. They also strike out at a 21.0% clip, but three hitters besides Gallo strike out in the 23%-to-26% range, with Abrams, Ruiz and Joey Meneses keeping the overall team average low. There are no other recommended options on the early slate, with the more talented arms like Hunter Greene and Sonny Gray in tough matchups. The wild card is LHP Mitchell Parker who slotted in for Josiah Gray, though he isn’t even a top-25 prospect for Washington. He had a grand total of 14.1 innings at Triple-A before his promotion to The Show and with 12 strikeouts in 12 scoreless innings thus far, he is out over his skis and will be crashing back to reality in the near future.

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MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: Tampa Bay Rays at RHP Jonathan Cannon— 5.2 implied runs First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the matchup against RHP Jonathan Cannon, even if stalwart Yandy Diaz is out of the lineup for Tampa Bay. Josh Lowe (oblique) should be back from the injured list, though Brandon Lowe (oblique and no relation) is still out along with Taylor Walls. It is actually warm today in Chicago, with game-time temperatures expected to be in the mid-70s. Cannon is up from Triple-A for a cup of coffee, but he is not expected to stick in the rotation for long as he had not worked above the Double-A level until this season. The strikeouts are a mirage as he projects to not miss many bats with a paltry 6.5 Ks per nine innings according to most projection systems. Once again the Tampa lineup is loaded … loaded with players who are not household names, but do not let that dissuade you from making them a part of your Saturday nigh plans. Lowe, Randy Arozarena, Isaac Paredes and Richie Palacios are the core four to covet, and they are far from budget busters. Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Angels vs. RHP Chris Paddack — 4.2 implied runs First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET In his last start, RHP Chris Paddack was sublime, finally avoiding home runs for the first time all season while also racking up 10 strikeouts. Of course, this was against the lowly White Sox, and it only improved Paddack’s 8.36 ERA to 5.57. Paddack is working his way back from his second Tommy John surgery, which cost him most of the 2022 and 2023 seasons. The best case for Paddack is that he can eat innings and make a couple dozen starts for the Twins. The worst case has him washing out of the league in a season or two, with the most likely outcome being a demotion to the bullpen. Mike Trout is a golden god. After that, Taylor Ward and Brandon Drury are serviceable and it is hard to be excited by the Halos on the featured slate. Miguel Sano is a wild card against his former team, but we need to remember that while he is batting cleanup for Anaheim, he wasn’t even in the league last year. Catcher Logan O’Hoppe is a decent play and can be considered as a stand-alone catcher on both slates. Perennial DFS tease Jo Adell is back from his MiLB banishment, and maybe this will be the time he finally sticks in The Show. Strikeouts are the main culprit, along with a low walk rate — but otherwise, the power is there to have Adell be a decent wingman for Trout. What about Anthony Rendon, you ask? Well, he is once again on the injured list as his cursed SoCal existence continues. Early Slate Target: Baltimore Orioles vs. LHP JP Sears — 4.7 implied runs First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET The top of the Baltimore lineup is popping in models, with a great matchup against LHP JP Sears. Last year the lefty had some serious home run issues, allowing 34 in his 172.1 innings. That tied him for the fourth most in the league, even worse than fellow southpaws Patrick Corbin (33) and Kyle Freeland (29). Sears does deserve to be in a starting rotation, though he needs to get the power issues under control or he’ll end up as yet another cautionary tale. Switch-hitters Adley Rutschman and Anthony Santander are both outstanding from the right side of the plate, and leadoff man Gunnar Henderson has proven more than capable of handling same-handed hurlers. If Ryan Mountcastle is in the middle of this trio as expected, he is the cherry on top of the Baltimore stack sundae. Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities Don’t forget that the Houston Astros and Colorado Rockies are actually playing in Mexico City this weekend and today’s game has a 15.5 implied run total. Looking to the under 2.5 strikeouts prop for RHP Cal Quantrill does not feel great, but it is a solid value. In five starts this season, Quantrill has 15 strikeouts in 27 innings. He also has 12 walks and four home runs. The hope for this wager is that he is forced to hit the showers prior to getting his third strikeout. OddsShopper shows this bet has -118 “true odds,” and the +100 even money line currently available at Hard Rock provides an excellent 8.3% expected return on investment (ROI). There is a 54% probability of this wager coming through, so we really need to get this wager at plus money to make it worth the risk. Did you know that you can get up to $1,500 in Bonus Bets paid back if your first wager does not win at BetMGM? Claim here today! Final Thoughts for Saturday, April 27 — MLB DFS Picks The weather looks good across the board today, but as always, be sure to check in with your favorite DFS meteorological resources closer to first pitch to see if there are any urgent updates. Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET, brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $500 first deposit match! Full details here.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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